Bangladesh Resident Mission

Bangladesh 2004 Post-Flood Recovery Program
Damage and Needs Assessment Joint Asian Development Bank and World Bank Mission
12-27 September 2004

Joint press statement

• A joint Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank (WB) mission visited Bangladesh between September 12 and 27, 2004 at the request of the Government of Bangladesh to help the Government complete a damage and needs assessment, and to propose an assistance program in support of the country's recovery efforts following the 2004 floods.



• The mission held discussions with a multitude of agencies, including all concerned GOB sector agencies, UN agencies, development partners, NGOs, public and private institutions, and academics. The mission also visited several flood affected districts, including Sylhet, Bogra, Comilla, Mymensingh, Sunamganj, Gaibandha, Maulvibazar, Manikganj, Munshiganj, Narayanganj and Sirajganj, to meet with local authorities and communities.



• The mission examined the impact of the floods on the macro-economy and sectors including housing, transport, water supply and sanitation, education, health, water resources, municipal infrastructure, power, trade and industry, agriculture, fisheries and livestock, and microfinance. The findings have been developed by the joint mission, based on GOB data, knowledge of the sector, and analysis. The data and information used in the assessment were provided by the Government and were supplemented by data and analyses from other relevant sources, and information from the field visits. Based on the quality and analysis of the data, the joint mission has made preliminary assessments of damage and needs. Data do not include damage due to rains and floods in September.



• Asset and Output Losses. The 2004 floods are likely to be as devastating as the 1998 floods in many ways. The mission's preliminary estimates show that total damage to assets and output losses is about US$2.2 billion.



• Economic Impacts. Preliminary analysis shows that, because of the flood, FY05 GDP growth could be about 0.5 percentage points lower than the 5.5 percent growth achieved in FY04. These macroeconomic effects are temporary and are expected to be overcome in the context of Bangladesh's good fiscal and macroeconomic performance. Agriculture, particularly the crop and animal farming subsectors and small and medium scale industries, are likely to be the most adversely affected in the short run. In addition, the balance of payments position may somewhat deteriorate. This could create pressure on reserves. Fortunately, unlike in 1998, Bangladesh's reserve position is much stronger, and it has in place a floating exchange rate regime that would also help absorb the pressure. The relief effort, expansion in food-assisted safety nets, repairing damage to public property, and the overall impact of the floods on economic growth is likely to put pressure on both public expenditure and tax revenues.



• Environmental Impacts. The recent floods caused four visible environmental impacts: (i) riverbank erosion; (ii) soil erosion; (iii) water logging; and (iv) water contamination and health risks.



• GOB Immediate Response. The Government, in coordination with NGOs and international organizations, has done a commendable job in responding to the flood emergency and assisting the affected population. About 5,500 emergency shelters were opened to house about 1.7 million homeless, over 3,400 medical teams were mobilized, and 800 temporary health centers were established. To assist the flood-affected households, the Government started the Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF) program two months earlier than usual. The Government formulated a number of assistance programs for the affected people to recover and restore their livelihoods.



• Bilateral Support. Bilateral donors, as well as the UN agencies, have also been involved in flood related activities. Already many, particularly Japan and DFID, have made contributions in relief related areas.



• Recommendations of the joint mission. The joint mission is proposing a phased assistance program to provide post-flood financial and other assistance to Bangladesh, taking into account the need for long-term disaster management and other development partners' efforts.
  Phase one, immediate recovery assistance of up to 15 months, which will address urgent rehabilitation activities in critical sectors such as roads, water supply and sanitation, education, health, water resource management, municipal infrastructure, social protection, housing and upgrading flood and cyclone shelters where needed..

  Phase two, mid-term recovery assistance (up to 5 years), focusing on critical sector needs, including social and physical infrastructure. This could include: the recovery program for roads; water resource management and identification and initiation of critical preparatory activities for disaster preparedness and response.

  Phase three, long-term, multi-risk disaster management program beyond 5 years, which would address: mainstreaming of hazard resistant criteria in the regular development process, such as ensuring the reliability of early warnings and weather forecasts; improving the enforcement process of building codes; ensuring that operation and maintenance of key infrastructure are carried out, etc.

• Implementation. Flood is a recurrent problem in Bangladesh. Implementation of the flood management programs is critical. The relevant government agencies need to give priority to the implementation issues, including fiduciary arrangements with respect to procurement and financial management.