Asian Development Outlook 2009 Update: Cook Islands
For Cook Islands, the outcome for 2008 and outlook for 2009 are revised down. Economic data for last year, when tourist arrivals fell, has been revised to show a GDP contraction of 1.2%, rather than a slight expansion as previously estimated. Low investment and the erosion of real incomes from high inflation point to the contraction extending into 2009.
But the extent of the decline is expected to moderate to about 0.1%, with tourism getting some support from subregional sporting events and conferences held in the Cook Islands. Growth is forecast to return in 2010 at the low rate of 0.8%. The Update raises the inflation forecast to 6.5% for 2009, but still foresees a deceleration of price pressures next year.