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Foreword, Acknowledgments, Acronyms and Abbreviations, DefinitionsForewordThe Asian Development Outlook 2003 is the 15th edition of the annual comprehensive economic report on the developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The Outlook provides a detailed analysis and assessment of macroeconomic trends, including fiscal, monetary, and balance-of-payments developments, for 41 Asian and Pacific economies for 2002, as well as projections for 2003 and 2004. It also provides a broad diagnosis of macroeconomic conditions, future growth prospects, and progress in poverty reduction in the economies of the region. After a marked slowdown in 2001, both the world economy and developing Asia got off to a strong start in 2002. As the year advanced, however, the pace of growth in the major industrial countries slowed and became more uneven. The United States' economy showed strong growth in the first and third quarters of 2002, but weaker performance toward the end of the year kept its overall recovery below expectations. Economies in the euro area did not perform as vigorously as projected at the beginning of the year. In Japan, despite stronger than expected growth in gross domestic product in the second half of the year, the economy expanded only slightly in 2002. In contrast to the industrial countries, economic growth in developing Asia generally strengthened, accelerating further in the second half of 2002 as export demand picked up. Expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary policies, mainly in East and Southeast Asia, contributed to the strengthening of aggregate demand, particularly consumption, while firmer export markets provided a boost to industrial production. Growth projections for the global economy for 2003 have recently been adjusted downward, reflecting economic slowdown in industrial countries in the early part of the year, concerns about the consequences of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Asia, and uncertainties, though diminished, relating to the situation in Iraq. Sound policies and structural reforms remain essential for achieving robust, sustainable economic growth. In developing Asia, aggregate growth projections have been reduced from those made at the end of last year. Revised estimated growth of 5.3% for developing Asia, with steady domestic and export demand in most countries, will still be robust in 2003 compared with all other regions in the world. Macroeconomic policies are expected to remain generally supportive. However, the economic outlook for Asia is highly dependent on the trends in the global economy, and susceptible to the risks associated with disruptions in tourism as well as other regional and international markets resulting from current uncertainties, including the SARS epidemic. This year's Outlook contains a theme chapter addressing the issue of competitiveness, a topic high on the agenda of policy makers in Asia and the Pacific whose economies face rapid globalization, constant changes in technology, and increasing competition. The chapter analyzes the nature and role of competitiveness in national economic development, emphasizing that competition is first and foremost a firm-level issue. At the same time, governments play a key role in developing appropriate policy measures and creating a conducive environment that will enable the private sector to compete in the global market place. The preparation of the Outlook was made possible through the efforts of many individuals both inside and outside of ADB. I would like to thank external economists and policy makers for their valuable insights and inputs. I would like to acknowledge the contribution of the economists from ADB's five regional departments and the resident missions as well as those from the Economics and Research Department. The publication would not have been possible without the support of ADB's Office of Administrative Services and the Office of Information Systems and Technology. Finally, the advice and assistance of the Office of External Relations in disseminating the Outlook are gratefully acknowledged. TADAO CHINO AcknowledgmentsThe Asian Development Outlook 2003 was prepared by the staff of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) from East and Central Asia Department, Mekong Department, Pacific Department, South Asia Department, Southeast Asia Department, the various resident missions of ADB, and the Economics and Research Department (ERD). The economists who contributed the country chapters are: Ramesh Adhikari and Dao Viet Dung (Viet Nam), Douglas Brooks (Republic of Korea), Johanna Boestel (Tajikistan), Giovanni Capannelli (Cook Islands, Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, and Nauru), Emma Xiaoqin Fan (Hong Kong, China), Yolanda Fernandez (Mongolia), Manabu Fujimura (Afghanistan), Bahodir Ganiev (Azerbaijan), David Green and Amanah Abdulkadir (Indonesia), Naved Hamid and Safiya Aftab (Pakistan), Francis Harrigan (Myanmar), Hideaki Imamura (Maldives), Yun-Hwan Kim (Malaysia and Singapore), Rajiv Kumar (Turkmenistan), Mandar Jayawant (Uzbekistan), Sukanda Lewis (Cambodia and the Lao People's Democratic Republic), Yeo Lin (Taipei,China), Xuelin Liu (Philippines), Jayant Menon (Thailand), Aliya Mukhamedyarova (Kazakhstan), Sudipto Mundle and Hiranya Mukhopadhyay (India), Soo-Nam Oh and Abid Hussain (Bhutan), Sungsup Ra (Nepal), Purnima Rajapakse (Bangladesh), Diwesh Sharan (Fiji Islands, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, and Tonga), Min Tang and Jian Zhuang (People's Republic of China), V. B. Tulasidhar (Kyrgyz Republic), Umaporn Wongwatanasin (Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu), and Joseph Ernest Zveglich (Sri Lanka). The subregional coordinators were Frank Harrigan and Tao Zhang on Southeast Asia, Rajiv Kumar on Central Asia, Sultan Hafeez Rahman and Narhari Rao on South Asia, and Diwesh Sharan on the Pacific. In ERD, the Outlook team was led by J.P. Verbiest, Assistant Chief Economist, Macroeconomics and Financial Research Division, assisted by Charissa N. Castillo and James P. Villafuerte. The chapter on Developing Asia and the World was contributed by J.P. Verbiest together with Douglas Brooks and Akiko Hagiwara while the chapter on Fiscal Policy Issues in Asia was contributed by Emma Xiaoqin Fan. The special chapter on Competitiveness in Developing Asia was prepared by Jesus Felipe. It benefited from extensive comments from Gerry Adams, Rana Hasan, Mike Hobday, Alejandro Nieto, and Josef Yap. The initial drafts and various background papers were discussed at the Asian Development Outlook Conference 2003 in January 2003 by leading economists from the academic world and the private sector, as well as policy makers from ADB's developing member countries and ADB economists. Staff from the International Monetary Fund, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, and the World Bank participated in the Conference. Technical and research support was provided by Roshan Ara, Emma Banaria, Veronica Bayangos, Laura Britt-Fermo, Benjamin Endriga, Heidee Lozari, Maritess Manalo, Aldalyn Nada-Bere, Aludia Pardo, Marife Principe, Pilipinas Quising, Cynthia Reyes, Sinha Roy Saikat, and Lea Sumulong. John Malcolm Dowling, Gonzalo Jurado, John McCombie, and Richard Niebuhr as the economic editors made substantive as well as advisory contributions. Jonathan Aspin did the copy editing and Elizabeth Leuterio was responsible for book design; she was assisted in typesetting by Mercedita Cabañeros. Mike Svegfors developed the cross-system data-linking facilities. Eva Olanda, assisted by Patricia Baysa and Susan Torres, provided administrative and secretarial support. The publication would not have been possible without the cooperation of the Printing Unit under the supervision of Raveendranath Rajan. Charissa N. Castillo coordinated the overall publication of the Outlook. Robert H. Salamon, Ann Quon, Tsukasa Maekawa, Lynette Mallery, and Penelope Price of the Office of External Relations planned and conducted the dissemination of the Outlook. IFZAL ALI Acronyms and Abbreviations
DefinitionsThe economies discussed in the Asian Development Outlook 2003 are classified by major analytic or geographic groupings, such as industrial countries, developing Asia, and transition economies. For purposes of ADO 2003, the following apply:
The Statistical Notes give a detailed explanation of how data are derived. ADO 2003 is based on data available up to 21 March 2003.
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