Asian Development Outlook 2003 - Statistical Notes and Tables

Table of Contents

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I. Developing Asia and the World

II. Economic Trends and Prospects in Developing Asia

III. Competitiveness in Developing Asia

Statistical Appendix

Statistical Notes and Tables

Asian Development Outlook 2003 : Statistical Appendix

Statistical Notes and Tables

The Statistical Appendix presents selected economic indicators for 41 developing member countries (DMCs) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a total of 24 tables. These tables can generally be classified into the following accounts, namely: (i) national accounts, both production and demand sides; (ii) labor (unemployment); (iii) prices; (iv) money supply; (v) components of the balance of payments; (vi) external debt and debt service; (vii) exchange rates; (viii) international liquidity (gross international reserves); and (ix) government finance. The DMCs are grouped into five subregions: East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, and the Pacific.

These tables contain historical data from 1997 to 2002. Forecasts for 2003 and 2004 are also provided in the following tables: Growth Rate of GDP (A1), Growth Rate of Per Capita GDP (A2), Growth Rate of Value Added in Agriculture (A3), Growth Rate of Value Added in Industry (A4), Growth Rate of Value Added in Services (A5), Gross Domestic Savings as Percent of GDP (A7), Gross Domestic Investment as Percent of GDP (A8), Inflation (A9), Changes in Money Supply (A10), Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports (A11), Growth Rate of Merchandise Imports (A13), Balance of Trade (A14), Balance of Payments on Current Account (A15), and Balance of Payments on Current Account as Percent of GDP (A16).

As much as possible, efforts were undertaken to standardize the data to allow comparability over time and across DMCs. However, limitations exist because of differences in statistical methodology, definitions, coverage, and practices. A discussion of the sources, definitions, scope, and nature of data in the 24 tables, as well as methodology for regional averages follows.

Historical data are obtained from the ADB Statistical Database System, as well as official sources, statistical publications, secondary publications, working papers, and internal documents of ADB, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. Projections for 2003 and 2004 are staff estimates. Data in the tables refer to either calendar year or fiscal year. For some countries, the majority of their accounts are reported on a fiscal year basis (see figure), but some of their accounts are recorded on a calendar year basis, as follows: GDP sector data, current account, and exchange rates for Cook Islands; prices and money for the Marshall Islands; and exchange rates for Tonga. Other DMCs record their data in calendar year except for government finance data, which are reported on a fiscal year basis: Hong Kong, China; Indonesia (1997-1999); and Singapore (fiscal year ending 31 March); Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste; Samoa; and Taipei,China; (fiscal year ending 30 June); and the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), and Thailand (fiscal year ending 30 September). External debt as well as debt service ratio data for Samoa are reported on a fiscal year basis.

Regional averages or totals for DMCs are provided for nine economic indicators tables. Data for Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Nauru are excluded in the computation of subregional averages due to measurement problems. For Inflation (Table A9), Timor-Leste is excluded in the computation of the averages for the Pacific and developing Asia.

Out of the nine economic indicator tables, six have regional averages (A1, A2, A9, A11, A13, and A16). Averages are computed on the basis of a consistent sum, which means that where there are missing data for a given year, corresponding data, if there are any, are also excluded in the other year that is also used to calculate the average. Totals are incorporated in three tables (A12, A14, and A5) except that in Table A12, subregional totals are represented in terms of percentage shares to developing Asia.

For four tables, growth rate of GDP (A1), growth rate of per capita GDP (A2), inflation (A9), and current account balance as a percentage of GDP (A16), levels of gross national income (GNI) at current US$ using the World Bank Atlas method were used as subregional weights to calculate the subregional and regional averages. Tables on growth rate of merchandise exports and imports (A11 and A13) do not use weights in the computation of averages.

The GNIs, in current US$, for ADB's DMCs from 1997 to 2001 were obtained from World Bank data query (http://devdata.worldbank.org/data-query/). The most recent data, 2001, are also used as weights for 2002 to 2004. GNIs for four of the DMCs are unavailable, namely: Cook Islands; Marshall Islands; Taipei,China; and Tuvalu. For these economies, weights are estimated.

Tables A1, A2, A3, A4, A5, A7, and A8: These tables refer to the national income accounts. They show output and sector rates, as well as the gross domestic savings and gross domestic investment as percentages of GDP. Definitions relating to output growth, production, and demand are generally based on the United Nations System of National Accounts.

Sector shares of agriculture, industry, and services for 2001 are, respectively, presented in Tables A3 to A5. In the case of Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Lao PDR, and Turkmenistan, sums of sector shares do not add up to 100% because of some statistical discrepancies and differences in definitions (see below). For Hong Kong, China; Korea; Malaysia; and Singapore, import duties and taxes net of imputed bank service charges were added to the services sector only for the computation of the sector shares to obtain a 100% sum for all sectors. However for Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, where the sum is not equal to 100%, import duties and taxes less imputed bank service charges are excluded in the sector data but are not netted out in the total value of output or GDP. Otherwise, inconsistency in the sum of sector shares is due to statistical discrepancies and unavailability of data for certain sectors.

Sector shares are computed based on constant prices except for the Marshall Islands where shares are based on current prices. The growth rate of GDP (A1) for the Cook Islands is reported on a fiscal year basis while sector growth rates and shares (A3-A5) are on a calendar year basis.

Gross domestic investment is presented in Table A8. These amounts represent final expenditures on investment at purchasers' prices. Correspondingly, gross domestic savings are shown in Table A7. Both variables are presented as percentages of GDP and all are valued at current prices.

The following paragraphs examine the tables in closer detail.

Table A1: Growth Rate of GDP. This shows annual growth rates of GDP valued at constant market prices, factor costs, or basic prices. GDP at market prices is the aggregation of the value added of all resident producers at producers' prices including taxes less subsidies on imports plus all nondeductible value-added or similar taxes. Other valuations for GDP use gross payments to factors of production and amount receivable by the producer from the purchaser for a unit of a good or service exclusive of taxes payable and inclusive of subsidies receivable on products, excluding transport charges invoiced separately by the producer. These valuations respectively refer to factor costs and basic prices. Most DMCs use constant market price valuations. South Asian countries predominantly use constant factor costs, including Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka while Maldives' GDP valuation is at basic prices. Among the Pacific economies, Fiji Islands, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu employ constant factor cost valuation, though for the Fiji Islands, constant market price valuation is used from 2000 onward. For Hong Kong, China, the computations of real GDP and sector growth rates were based on volume indices.

Table A2: Growth Rate of Per Capita GDP. Real per capita GDP is obtained by subtracting the midyear population growth rate from real GDP growth.

Table A3: Growth Rate of Value Added in Agriculture. The table gives the growth rates of value added in agriculture and its corresponding share for 2001. The agriculture sector includes agricultural crops, livestock, poultry, fisheries, and forestry.

Table A4: Growth Rate of Value Added in Industry. The table gives the growth rates of value added in industry and its corresponding share for 2001. This sector includes the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing subsectors. Mining and quarrying, construction, and utilities fall under the latter subsector. For Kazakhstan, the industry sector does not include construction.

Table A5: Growth Rate of Value Added in Services. The table gives the growth rates of value added in services and its corresponding share for 2001. Subsectors include trade, banking, finance, real estate, public administration, and other services.

Table A6: Unemployment Rate. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that actively seeks work but is unable to find work at a given time. The age of the working population generally ranges from 18 to 65, though this may vary from country to country. In Bangladesh, for instance, the labor force includes those aged 10 and above. The unemployment rates of the PRC and Viet Nam refer to unemployment in urban areas only. For the Pacific, data are primarily obtained from the Pacific Human Development Report 1999; some figures are from country sources.

Table A7: Gross Domestic Savings (% of GDP). This table gives the ratio of gross domestic savings (GDS) to GDP. Gross domestic savings is derived as the difference between GDP and total consumption or gross national savings minus net factor income from abroad. For some countries, the concept of gross national savings is employed. Gross national savings (GNS) is computed as GNP minus total consumption, thus this value includes the net factor income from abroad. Most countries present GDS as a percentage of GDP except for the economies of Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, and Sri Lanka, which use GNS. For the Philippines, GNP is used as the denominator of ratio while for Nepal, GNS/GDP is valued at current market prices.

Table A8: Gross Domestic Investment (% of GDP). This table gives the ratio of gross domestic investment to GDP. Gross domestic investment is the sum of gross fixed capital formation plus changes in inventories. Gross fixed capital formation is measured by the total value of a producer's acquisitions, less disposals, of fixed assets in a given accounting period. Additions to the value of nonproduced assets, e.g., land, form part of gross fixed capital formation. Inventories are stocks of goods held by institutional units to meet temporary or unexpected fluctuations in production and sales. For the Lao PDR, investment approvals based on staff estimates were used as gross domestic investment while for Pakistan gross national investment data are used. As with Table A7, GNP is used as the denominator for the Philippines.

Table A9: Inflation. Except for India, which reports a wholesale price index and Solomon Islands, which uses a retail price index, the annual inflation rates presented are based on consumer price indices. For most DMCs, the reported inflation rates represent period averages except for Bhutan, Cook Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, and Viet Nam, which use end-of-period data. Cambodia uses the average CPI for the last quarter of the year, October to December. The data for Singapore is on a calendar year basis, yet the base year used for the computation of inflation rates is November 1997-October 1998. The inflation rate for India in 2002 is for April-December only. The consumer price indices of the following countries are for a given city or group of consumers only: Cambodia is for Phnom Penh, Marshall Islands is for Majuro, and Nepal is for urban consumers.

Table A10: Change in Money Supply. This table tracks the annual percentage change in the end-of-period broad money as represented by M2 (for most DMCs). M2 is defined as the sum of M1 and quasi-money where M1 denotes currency in circulation plus demand deposits and quasi-money consists of time and savings deposits including foreign currency deposits. For Sri Lanka, M2 includes time and savings deposits held by commercial banks' foreign currency banking units. For the Marshall Islands, broad money consists only of deposits, while for India, Kazakhstan, Micronesia, Papua New Guinea, and Philippines, broad money is represented by M3, defined as M2 plus other assets that are less liquid than what would be classified under M2 and M1. For India, M3 includes deposits with the Reserve Bank of India, and its FY2002 data are only until 10 January 2003.

Tables A11, A13, A14, A15, A16, and A17: Balance of Payments. This set of tables primarily contains items from the balance of payments (BOP). These items cover the annual flows recorded in the BOP account.

Tables A11 and A13: Growth Rates of Merchandise Exports and Imports. The annual growth rates of exports and imports, in terms of merchandise goods only, are shown in this table. Data are in million US$, primarily obtained from the BOP account of each DMC. Exports in general are reported on a free-on-board (f.o.b.) basis. In this case, exports are valued at the customs frontier of the exporting country plus export duties and the costs of loading the goods onto the carrier unless the latter is borne by the carrier. It excludes the cost of freight and insurance beyond the customs frontier. For Cambodia, exports refer to domestic exports. Import data are reported either on an f.o.b. or c.i.f. (cost, insurance, freight) basis. On a c.i.f. basis, the value of imports includes the cost of international freight and insurance up to the customs frontier of the importing country. It excludes the cost of unloading the goods from the carrier unless it is borne by the carrier. For Cambodia, imports only refer to retained imports, referring to total imports net of reexports and include project aid imports and an estimate of unrecorded imports. Retained imports are those goods that are kept in the country for domestic use.

For East Asia, all economies report imports on an f.o.b. basis except for Mongolia which records them on a ci.f. basis. Imports are valued on an f.o.b. basis for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Viet Nam while the rest of the Southeast Asian countries' imports are valued on a c.i.f. basis. Bhutan, India, and Nepal record imports on a c.i.f. basis while Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka value them on an f.o.b. basis. For all the Central Asian economies, all imports are costed on an f.o.b. basis. Most of the Pacific countries report imports on an f.o.b. basis while imports of Cook Islands, Papua New Guinea, and Samoa are recorded on a c.i.f. basis. For the PRC, trade data for 2002-2004 are estimated using the customs basis concept. Based on available data for 2002, export and import growth rates for 2002 were estimated using the respective growth rates covering the period April to September for India. For Hong Kong, China, BOP data are only available from 1997 onward, thus 1996 data, for the computation of 1997 growth rates, were derived from the national income accounts.

Table A12: Direction of Exports. Data from this table are sourced from IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics, CD-ROM (February 2003). This table shows the exports of ADB's DMCs, except Taipei,China. It shows the percentage share of exports of each DMC to developing Asia excluding the PRC, PRC only, US, Japan, European Union (EU), and others or rest of the world. The rest of the world is derived as total exports of DMCs to the world minus their exports among themselves and to US, Japan, and EU.

Table A14: Balance of Trade. The trade balance is the difference between merchandise exports and merchandise imports. Figures in this table are based on the export and import levels used to generate Tables A11 and A13.

Table A15: Balance of Payments on Current Account (US$ million). The current account balance is the sum of the balance of trade for merchandise, net trade in services and factor income, and net transfers. The amounts shown in this table are in million US$. In the case of Bangladesh, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Thailand, and Viet Nam, official transfers are excluded from the current account balance.

Table A16: Balance of Payments on Current Account (% of GDP). The values reported in Table A15 are divided by GDP at current prices in US$, except for the Philippines where GNP in current US$ is used.

Table A17: Foreign Direct Investment. Foreign direct investment refers to equity capital, reinvested earnings, and other capital associated with the transactions of enterprises. Amounts reflected are net of capital flows in the reporting home country except for Cambodia and Thailand where gross capital flows are presented. For Bangladesh, only those capital investments passing through banking channels are reported. For India, data for 2002 only refer to flows from April to November 2002. Data for the Pacific countries are derived from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2002 and refer to gross inflows.

Table A18: External Debt Outstanding. For most DMCs, external debt outstanding includes long-term debt, short-term debt, and IMF credit. For Mongolia, outstanding external debt, based on IMF estimates, excludes unresolved claims owed to the Russian Federation. The external debt reported by Cambodia and Lao PDR also excludes that owed to the Russian Federation and the United States. For Taipei,China, the 2002 figure is at September 2002.

Table A19: Debt Service Ratio. This table presents the total debt service payments of each DMC as a percentage of exports of goods and services. Total debt service payments comprise of principal repayments and interest payments on outstanding external debt. For Taipei,China, the debt service refers to external public debt only. The exports of goods is used in the ratio for PRC, Kiribati, Mongolia, and Papua New Guinea.

Table A20: Exchange Rates to the US Dollar. The annual average exchange rates of the DMCs are quoted in local currencies per US dollar. Tonga reports end-of-period exchange rates. The 2002 average exchange rates reported by Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu cover months from January to September while Kiribati, Nauru, and Tuvalu are from January to November only. The 2002 data for Papua New Guinea are estimated using data from January to September.

Table A21: Gross International Reserves. Gross international reserves (GIR) are defined as the US$ value of holdings of the special drawing rights (SDR) reserve position in the IMF, foreign exchange, and gold at the end of a given period. Most DMCs report GIR without gold. However, for Southeast Asian countries except Singapore, gold is included in the computation of gross international reserves; a similar concept is used by Bangladesh and Bhutan. For India, GIR excludes gold and SDR and data reported for 2002 is as of 31 January 2003 while for the Maldives foreign assets of Maldives Monetary Authority are included in the definition of GIR. For Pakistan, GIR includes foreign reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan. Samoa's GIR refer to gross foreign assets. For Taipei,China, GIR refers to foreign exchange reserves only.

Tables 22, 23, and 24: Government Finance. This set of tables refers to the revenue and expenditure transactions as well as fiscal balance of the central government. For PRC, India, Mongolia, and Tajikistan, transactions are those reported by both central and local governments or consolidated government while Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan transactions are those recorded by the general government. The shares of these major fiscal items as a percentage of GDP are calculated for this group of tables.

Table 22: Central Government Expenditures. Central government expenditures comprise all nonrepayable payments to both current and capital expenses. These amounts are computed as a percentage of GDP at current prices. For Bhutan, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Maldives, Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, net lending is included in the computation of expenditures. Pakistan's expenditures do not include one-off expenditure items.

Table 23: Central Government Revenues. Central government revenues comprise all nonrepayable receipts, both current and capital , other than grants. These amounts are computed as a percentage of GDP at current prices. Grants are counted for countries such as Bhutan, Maldives, Kiribati, Nepal, Philippines, and Vanuatu. Grants in cash are added in the revenues of these Pacific countries. In some countries, other revenue items are included and excluded in the reported revenue figures: the social security fund is included for Korea, the Oil Fund is excluded for Azerbaijan, sales from assets are excluded for the Fiji Islands, and privatization proceeds are excluded for Sri Lanka.

Table 24: Overall Budget Surplus/Deficit of Central Government. This is the residual between central government revenues and expenditures. The difference is also computed as a share of GDP. Data variations may arise due to statistical discrepancies, e.g., balancing items for both central and local governments, and differences in the concept used in the individual computations of revenue and expenditure as compared with the calculation of the fiscal balance. For the Fiji Islands, the computation of budget balance includes the proceeds from the sale of assets. For Kazakhstan, privatization proceeds were treated as financing items rather than revenues in 2002. Some off-budget accounts are included in the computation of the fiscal balance for Turkmenistan.

Consistency with ADB Annual Report 2002. In general, ADO 2003 figures are consistent with the ADB Annual Report 2002 figures. However, moderate discrepancies maybe noted for some countries. One reason is that the Annual Report derives its numbers from official government sources. A number of ADO 2003 figures were obtained through the respective ADB resident missions and from IMF documents as against the Annual Report numbers which were reported by the official statistical agencies or from Annual Report survey replies. In some cases, the concept and computational method used differ between ADO 2003 and the Annual Report 2002. For instance, the average of period inflation rates are derived from the average index for the year for the Annual Report, as against the average based on a year-on-year computation of inflation rate using monthly data for ADO 2003. Differences in base years for the various time series also account for minor discrepancies between the same series used in both publications. There are also some imputed adjustments in the definition for GDS and exports, imports, and balance of trade.

Finally, there are cases where the ADO 2003 independent assessment does not converge with the official view of the government. For these reasons, an artificial convergence between the ADO 2003 and the Annual Report 2002 numbers is not made.