Catalog

	Table of Contents
p. 1 of 33 BACK | NEXT Foreword, Acronyms and Abbreviations, Definitions I. Developing Asia and the World II. Economic Trends and Prospects in Developing Asia III. Economic Scenarios for Asia Statistical Appendix

Asian Development Outlook 2004 Update

---

Foreword, Acronyms and Abbreviations, Definitions

Foreword

The economies of developing Asia and the Pacific outperformed earlier forecasts during the first half of 2004. Buoyant exports and rebounding investment boosted growth. Although external demand is expected to abate somewhat and as the impact of high oil prices is felt more strongly during the second half of 2004, the region's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2004 is projected to reach 7.0%, slightly above the Asian Development Outlook 2004 (ADO 2004) forecast of 6.8%, made in April. In line with some leveling off of the expansion in major industrial countries and a slowdown in the People's Republic of China (PRC), the GDP growth forecast for 2005 has been scaled back to 6.2% from 6.7% in ADO 2004 Update.

ADO 2004 Update features an overview of recent global economic trends and the region's recent macroeconomic performance and prospects. It also analyzes economic trends, policy developments, and the outlook for 21 selected developing member countries (DMCs) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which were included in ADO 2004. In addition, the Update assesses different scenarios relating to the short-term impacts of a PRC slowdown and sustained high global oil prices on the region's economies.

The Update was prepared by the staff of ADB from the East and Central Asia Department, Mekong Department, Pacific Department, South Asia Department, Southeast Asia Department, the Economics and Research Department (ERD), as well as the resident missions of ADB. The economists who contributed the country chapters are: Ramesh Adhikari and Dao Viet Dung (Viet Nam), William Bikales (Malaysia), Xiaoqin Fan (Taipei,China), Akiko Hagiwara (Hong Kong, China), Naved Hamid and Safiya Aftab (Pakistan), M. Zahid Hossain (Bangladesh), Mandar Jayawant (Uzbekistan), Thomas Crouch and Xuelin Liu (Philippines), Aliya Mukhamedyarova (Kazakhstan), Hiranya Mukhopadhyay (India), Cyn-Young Park (Republic of Korea), Michaela Prokop (Papua New Guinea), Kenji Takamiya (Lao PDR), Yumiko Tamura (Thailand), Sungsup Ra (Nepal), Purnima Rajapakse and Vanndy Hem (Cambodia), Ramesh Subramanian and Amanah Abdulkadir (Indonesia), Fan Zhai (Singapore), Jian Zhuang (People's Republic of China), and J. Ernest Zveglich (Azerbaijan). Bruce Knapman drafted the chapter on the Fiji Islands.

Jean-Pierre A. Verbiest, Assistant Chief Economist, Macroeconomics and Finance Research Division, assisted by Charissa N. Castillo, coordinated the overall production of the publication. Jean-Pierre A. Verbiest, Cyn-Young Park, and Pilipinas Quising wrote the chapter in Part 1 on Developing Asia and the World. In Part 3, the chapter on Regional Impact of an Economic Slowdown in the PRC was contributed by Fan Zhai, and the chapter on Higher Global Oil Prices: Implications for Developing Asia in 2005 was prepared by Cyn-Young Park and Lea Sumulong.

Technical and research support was provided by Gmelina Guiang, Ludy Pardo, Grace Sipin, and Lea Sumulong, assisted by Bernadette Agustin, Roshan Ara, Laura Britt-Fermo, Mary Jane David, Leticia de Leon, Heidee Lozari, Nguyen Phuong Ngoc, Marife Principe, Sinha Roy Saikat, Bipulendu Singh, and Bing Villarante.

Richard Niebuhr and Anthony Patrick added substantive inputs in their capacity as economic editors. Jonathan Aspin did the copy editing and Elizabeth Leuterio was responsible for book design and typesetting. Patricia Baysa provided administrative and secretarial support. The cooperation of the Logistics Management Section under the supervision of Raveendranath Rajan contributed significantly to the timely publication of the Update. Robert Salamon, Ann Quon, Tsukasa Maekawa, and Ma. Mildred Villareal of the Office of External Relations planned and coordinated the dissemination of ADO 2004 Update.

IFZAL ALI
Chief Economist
Economics and Research Department
Manila
22 September 2004

Top

Contents

Part 1 Developing Asia and the World 1

Developing Asia and the World 3

Part 2 Economic Trends and Prospects in Developing Asia 23

East Asia 24

People's Republic of China 25
Hong Kong, China 30
Republic of Korea 33
Taipei,China 37

Southeast Asia 40

Cambodia 41
Indonesia 43
Lao People's Democratic Republic 47
Malaysia 49
Philippines 53
Singapore 57
Thailand 60
Viet Nam 63

South Asia 66

Bangladesh 67
India 70
Nepal 75
Pakistan 77

Central Asia 82

Azerbaijan 83
Kazakhstan 85
Uzbekistan 88

The Pacific 92

Fiji Islands 93
Papua New Guinea 96

Part 3 Economic Scenarios for Asia 99

Economic Scenarios for Asia 101
Regional Impact of an Economic Slowdown in the People's Republic of China:

Statistical Appendix 116

Statistical Notes and Tables 117

Top

Figures

Figure 1.1 Real GDP Growth Rate of the United States, Euro Zone, and Japan, Q1 2003-Q2 2004 5
Figure 1.2 Growth of GDP and its Demand Components, United States, Q1 2003-Q2 2004 6
Figure 1.3 Institute for Supply Management Index, United States, January 2003-August 2004 7
Figure 1.4 Nonfarm Employment, January 2003-August 2004, million, seasonally adjusted 7
Figure 1.5 Growth of GDP and its Demand Components, Japan, Q1 2003-Q2 2004 8
Figure 1.6 Growth of GDP and its Demand Components, Euro Zone, Q1 2003-Q2 2004 9
Figure 1.7 Non-Energy Commodity Prices, January 2003-August 2004 11
Figure 1.8 Major Stock Market Price Indexes, 2004 12
Figure 1.9 Volatility of US Treasury Securities, 2004 12
Figure 1.10 Sovereign Risk Spreads of Emerging Asian Markets and High-Yield Corporate Spreads, January 2003-August 2004 13
Figure 2.1 Contribution to GDP Growth, People's Republic of China, 2002-2005 29
Figure 2.2 Contribution to GDP Growth by Expenditure Account, Hong Kong, China, Q1 2002-Q2 2004 30
Figure 2.3 Contribution to Growth by Expenditure Component, Republic of Korea, Q1 2002-Q2 2004 33
Figure 2.4 GDP Growth by Expenditure Account, Taipei,China, Q1 2002-Q2 2004 37
Figure 2.5 GDP and GDP Per Capita Growth, Cambodia, 1997-2005 41
Figure 2.6 Poverty, Unemployment, and GDP Growth, Indonesia, 2001-2004 43
Figure 2.7 GDP Growth by Sector, Lao People's Democratic Republic, 1997-2005 47
Figure 2.8 Contribution to GDP Growth by Expenditure Account, Malaysia, 2001-2004 49
Figure 2.9 Fiscal Performance, Philippines, 1998-2003 55
Figure 2.10 GDP Growth and Contribution by Expenditure Account, Singapore, 2003-Q2 2004 57
Figure 2.11 GDP Growth and Inflation, Thailand, 1997-2005 62
Figure 2.12 First-Half GDP and Sector Growth, Viet Nam, 2002-2004 65
Figure 2.13 Total Merchandise Exports and Invisible Receipts by Category, Bangladesh, FY2004 68
Figure 2.14 Sector Composition of Growth, India, FY2002 and FY2003 70
Figure 2.15 Inflation, Pakistan, June 2003-June 2004 78
Figure 2.16 GDP Growth, Azerbaijan, 1997-2005 83
Figure 2.17 GDP Growth and Unemployment, Kazakhstan, 1996-2004 85
Figure 2.18 Quarterly Visitor Arrivals, Fiji Islands, 2002-2004 93
Figure 3.1 PRC Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales, Q1 2001-Q2 2004 102
Figure 3.2 PRC Trade Balance, 1997-2003 103
Figure 3.3 Spot and 3-Month Forward Oil Prices, Brent Crude, October 2002-August 2004 110
Figure 3.4 Nominal and Real Prices, Brent Crude, Q1 1970-Q3 2004 111
Figure 3.5 Foreign Exchange Reserves, 1979 and 2004 112
Figure 3.6 Inflation Rates, 1979 and 2004 112
Figure 3.7 Asian Exports, 1980-2003 113

Top

Tables

Table 1.1 Selected Economic Indicators, Developing Asia, 2003-2005 4
Table 1.2 Baseline Assumptions on External Conditions, 2003-2005 6
Table 1.3 Percentage Change in Stock Market Prices (from end of previous period) 13
Table 2.1 Selected Economic Indicators, People's Republic of China, 2004-2005, % 26
Table 2.2 Selected Economic Indicators, Hong Kong, China, 2004-2005, % 31
Table 2.3 Selected Economic Indicators, Republic of Korea, 2004-2005, % 34
Table 2.4 Selected Economic Indicators, Taipei,China, 2004-2005, % 38
Table 2.5 Selected Economic Indicators, Cambodia, 2004-2005, % 42
Table 2.6 Selected Economic Indicators, Indonesia, 2004-2005, % 44
Table 2.7 Selected Economic Indicators, Lao People's Democratic Republic, 2004-2005, % 48
Table 2.8 Selected Economic Indicators, Malaysia, 2004-2005, % 50
Table 2.9 Selected Economic Indicators, Philippines, 2004-2005, % 54
Table 2.10 Selected Economic Indicators, Singapore, 2004-2005, % 58
Table 2.11 Selected Economic Indicators, Thailand, 2004-2005, % 61
Table 2.12 Selected Economic Indicators, Viet Nam, 2004-2005, % 64
Table 2.13 Selected Economic Indicators, Bangladesh, 2004-2005, % 69
Table 2.14 Selected Economic Indicators, India, 2004-2005, % 71
Table 2.15 Selected Economic Indicators, Nepal, 2004-2005, % 76
Table 2.16 Selected Economic Indicators, Pakistan, 2004-2005, % 79
Table 2.17 Selected Economic Indicators, Azerbaijan, 2004-2005, % 84
Table 2.18 Selected Economic Indicators, Kazakhstan, 2004-2005, % 86
Table 2.19 Selected Economic Indicators, Uzbekistan, 2004-2005, % 89
Table 2.20 Selected Economic Indicators, Fiji Islands, 2004-2005, % 94
Table 2.21 Selected Economic Indicators, Papua New Guinea, 2004-2005, % 97
Table 3.1 Regional Distribution of Merchandise Trade in Developing Asia, 2003, % 102
Table 3.2 PRC Share in Exports of Selected Asian Economies, 2001-2003, % 102
Table 3.3 Effects of the Investment-Induced PRC Slowdown on GDP and Trade, 2005 104
Table 3.4 Effects of Investment-Induced PRC Slowdown on Sector Output, 2005 105
Table 3.5 Price Effects of Investment-Induced PRC Slowdown, 2005 106
Table 3.6 Effects of Investment-Induced PRC Slowdown plus Changes in US and Japanese Growth 107
Table 3.7 OPEC Production and Quota vs Production Capacity (million barrels a day) 110
Table 3.8 The Impact of a Temporary Oil Price Increase: Scenario 1 vs Scenario 2, 2005 114
Table 3.9 The Impact of a Sustained Oil Price Increase: Scenario 1 vs Scenario 2, 2005 115

Top

Statistical Appendix Tables

Table A1 Growth Rate of GDP (% per year) 120
Table A2 Inflation (% per year) 121
Table A3 Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports (% per year) 122
Table A4 Growth Rate of Merchandise Imports (% per year) 123
Table A5 Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 124
Table A6 Fiscal Balance of Central Government (% of GDP) 125

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Top

Definitions

The economies discussed in the Asian Development Outlook 2004 Update are classified by major analytic or geographic groupings. For purposes of ADO 2004 Update, the following apply:

• Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) comprises Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam.

• Developing Asia refers to the 42 developing member countries (DMCs) of the Asian ­Development Bank.

• East Asia comprises People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Mongolia; and Taipei,China.

• Industrial countries refer to the high-income OECD countries defined in World Bank, available: www.worldbank.org/data/countryclass/classgroups.htm#High-income.

• Southeast Asia comprises Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, ­Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam.

• South Asia comprises Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

• Central Asia comprises Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and ­Uzbekistan.

• The Pacific comprises Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Kiribati, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.

• Transition economies refer to the countries of Central Asia, People's Republic of China, Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mongolia, and Viet Nam.

• The euro zone comprises Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, ­Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.

• Unless otherwise specified, the symbol “$” and the word “dollar” refer to US dollars.

The Statistical Notes give a detailed explanation of how data are derived.

ADO 2004 Update is based on data available up to 15 September 2004.

Back Asian Development Outlook 2004 Update	Next I. Developing Asia and the World