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Asian Development Outlook 2006 Update
ForewordDeveloping Asia and the Pacific will record another good year in 2006. Despite escalating oil prices, soaring costs of commodity imports, and rising interest rates, growth is projected to be 7.7%, up from 7.6% in 2005. This is higher than projected in Asian Development Outlook 2006 (ADO 2006) released in April this year. Acceleration in growth in the People's Republic of China, due to booming investment and exports, has significantly influenced this regional upward revision. Revisions to the growth forecasts of the three larger South Asian economies-Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan-on the back of higher levels of export growth have also fed into the higher 2006 projection. For 2007, it is expected that growth will stay robust, though with some likely easing as demand slows from industrial countries. The Update marginally revises up the growth projection by 0.1 percentage point to 7.1%. Growth is expected to remain strong, but not as brisk as in 2006 as it is anticipated that oil prices will stay high. The Update features an overview of recent trends within the region and sets them in their global context. It also points to risks in the region and suggests appropriate responses to them. In fact, a key message is that, to contain future threats to growth, developing Asia should adjust now while domestic and external conditions remain favorable. The Update also reviews recent economic trends and revisits the outlook for selected countries in developing Asia. The Update presents a section on the trade issues that may have implications over the longer term, as well as a theme chapter on developing Asia's rising influence in world commodity markets. This chapter describes recent trends in commodity markets and sets them in a longer historical perspective, looking ahead to the possible effects of continued fast growth in the region. The Update was prepared by the staff of the Asian Development Bank from the following departments: Central and West Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Pacific, and Economics and Research, as well as the resident missions of the Asian Development Bank. The economists who contributed the country chapters are: Mohammad Zahid Hossain and Rezaul Khan (Bangladesh); Jian Zhuang (People's Republic of China); Aashish Mehta and Hiranya Mukhopadhyay (India); Amanah Abdulkadir and Ramesh Subramaniam (Indonesia); Kevin Chew of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Malaysia); Safdar Parvez and Ghulam Qadir (Pakistan); Sharad Bhandari (Philippines); Jean-Pierre Verbiest and Luxmon Attapich (Thailand); and Dao Viet Dung and Omkar Shrestha (Viet Nam). Subregional summaries were provided by Padmini Desikachar for Central Asia, Toan Quoc Nguyen for South Asia, Sharad Bhandari for Southeast Asia, and Bruce Knapman for the Pacific. The subregional coordinators were Padmini Desikachar for Central and West Asia, Klaus Gerhaeusser for East Asia, Toan Quoc Nguyen for South Asia, Sharad Bhandari for Southeast Asia, and Kiyoshi Taniguchi for the Pacific. Frank Harrigan, Assistant Chief Economist, Macroeconomics and Finance Research Division, assisted by Edith Laviña, coordinated the overall production of the publication. Developing Asia and the world was prepared by Frank Harrigan and Cyn-Young Park. William James of Nathan Associates, Inc. prepared the section Suspension of Doha talks and emerging trade issues. Cyn-Young Park and Fan Zhai wrote the theme chapter Developing Asia's imprint on global commodity markets. Lea Sumulong contributed a box on oil subsidies while Pilipinas Quising provided an analysis of ADO's forecasting performance. Technical and research support was provided by Shiela Camingue, Metis Ilagan, Pilipinas Quising, Nedelyn Ramos, Grace Sipin, Lea Sumulong, and Rashiel Velarde. Richard Niebuhr and Anthony Patrick as the economic editors made substantive contributions to the country chapters, subregional summaries, and other parts of the Update. Jonathan Aspin did the style and copy editing. Elizabeth E. Leuterio was responsible for typesetting and data linking, as well as graphics generation in which she was assisted by Maria Susan Torres. Artwork and cover design were rendered by Mike Cortes of /Doubleslash/ Media Inc. Maria Susan Torres, assisted by Zenaida Acacio and Pats Baysa, provided administrative and secretarial support. The publication would not have been possible without the cooperation of the Printing Unit under the supervision of Raveendranath Rajan. Ann Quon and David Kruger of the Department of External Relations planned and coordinated the dissemination of the Update. IFZAL ALI
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