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p. 11 of 57 BACK | NEXT I. The Changing Environment II. Driving Forces of Change Population Explosion Urbanization and Industrialization Income Growth and Inequality Technological Changes Governance Institutions, Policy, and the Market Toward Sustainable Development III. Options and Opportunities IV. Toward Policy Integration V. Call to Action

Asian Environment Outlook 2001 : II. Driving Forces of Change

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Population Explosion

The relationship between demographic forces and the environment is complex. Certainly, population growth that exceeds the capacity of ecosystems will undermine efforts to improve environmental quality. Lack of integration of population and economic development policies exacerbates the adverse impact of population growth on the natural environment and poverty. Much of the rapid population growth projected for the next two decades will occur in areas already under severe environmental stress and areas that face substantial resource constraints to increased food production (see Box 2-1). In other areas, population growth will significantly contribute to increased consumption of energy and materials. Where population growth has stabilized, changes in income and consumption patterns will also contribute more to increased energy and materials use.

Four aspects of population impact the environment: (i) resource demands directly resulting from increased population; (ii) changes in labor productivity and consumption patterns resulting from demographic shifts (age distribution); (iii) population migration patterns; and (iv) population densities that exceed local capacities to manage environmental effects.

Over the next 15 years, approximately 700 million people will be added to the population of Asia (see Figure 2-1). Population growth rates are expected to decline significantly within the region over this time period. The United Nations predicts that population growth in East Asia will fall from the 1.3 percent annual growth rate sustained over the past two decades to 0.7 percent annually over the next 20 years. In South Asia, the annual growth rate in population will fall from 2.2 percent (1975 through 1997) to 1.5 percent (1997 through 2015). But even with this drop in the annual growth rate, the total population will increase substantially. The resource demands of population growth remain one of the most significant drivers of environmental degradation within the region.

Almost all countries in the Asia and Pacific region are experiencing a demographic transition from high to low fertility and mortality rates. In South Asia, infant and child mortality is falling fast, resulting in a greater share of youth in the population and an expanding active labor force (ADB 1997).

In much of East Asia, by contrast, the next 25 years will result in a significant “greying” of the population as the economically dependent segment of the population grows at a faster rate than the active labor force. These demographic shifts will have multiple indirect impacts on the environment ranging from shifting patterns of consumption to labor supply for future economic development. The important point is that the impact of demographic transition (economically active population compared to economically dependent population) on the environment is largely contingent on the economic opportunities available within each of the DMCs.

Population migration has in many cases intensified environmental challenges within the region. The most significant migration pattern in the region is rural to urban migration in individual countries. There is also significant international migration to high-growth, industrializing countries. Urban and rural migrations are major obstacles to adequate management of urban environmental concerns. Also, rural migrants have been driven to rapidly growing cities in search of employment and improved social welfare. This economically disadvantaged population typically settles in environmentally hazardous areas such as riverbanks, swamps, and estuaries. They often have little choice but to engage in unhealthy and hazardous occupations. In addition, limited social and health services reach this portion of the population.

Although migration to urban centers is considerable, population in rural areas also increased substantially. Population growth in rural areas has had a significant impact on agriculture. Agricultural land use increased by 13 percent (or 170 million ha) in the last 30 years, largely at the expense of lowland forests and their rich biodiversity. Population densities have been one factor driving land degradation in portions of the Asia and Pacific region (along with weak institutions, inappropriate land tenure systems, and other factors). The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that with virtually no reserves of land with crop production potential, further population growth in South Asia will lead to increased use of marginal land, destabilization of traditional farming systems, and increased migration to urban areas. From 1990 to 2025, available land per capita in Pakistan is projected to fall from 0.17 ha to 0.07 ha, and in India, from 0.20 ha to 0.12 ha.

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