Country Assistance Plans - Tajikistan

Table of Contents

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I. Country Performance Assessment

A. Economic Performance Assessment

B. Poverty Assessment

C. Assessment of Socio-Environmental Performance

D. Governance: Sound Development Management

E. Implementation Assessment

II. Country Operational Strategy

III. Sector Strategies

IV. Regional Cooperation

V. Donor Activities and Aid Coordination

VI. Cofinancing and Catalyzing External Resources

VII. ADB’s Operational Program

VIII. Economic and Sector Work Program

IX. Local Cost Financing

Country Assistance Plans - Tajikistan : I. Country Performance Assessment

B. Poverty Assessment

10. The war, the general economic contraction, and the loss of social services have caused a drastic deterioration in overall living conditions. Tajikistan's per capita GDP was $330 in 1997 and $370 in 1998, making it the poorest former Soviet republic and one of the poorest countries in the world².

11. Although the political and economic situation has begun to stabilize since the signing of the 1997 peace agreement, external shocks in 1998 and 1999 exacerbated the fragile living conditions of the population. In addition, major floods in the past two years destroyed or damaged infrastructure, homes, and crops. Unemployment, virtually nonexistent before independence, increased to approximately 30 percent³ in 1999. Real wages have declined by 80 percent since 1991 as nominal wages have failed to keep pace with Tajikistan's high post-independence inflation rates.

12. The Tajikistan Living Standards Survey undertaken in May 1999 with technical assistance from UNDP and the World Bank provided the basic data for a comprehensive social sector analysis. Preliminary data from this Survey show that (i) 82.6 percent of the population live in poverty, based on a monthly per capita poverty line of TJR 20,000; and (ii) 32.8 percent live in absolute poverty, based on a monthly per capita income of TJR 10,000. At the same time, the Survey also indicated that the Government's provisional monthly per capita minimum consumption basket is TJR 32,083, and it is estimated that 95.7 percent of the population live below that level⁴. Average monthly per capita income is estimated at TJR 11,229.

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Data based on the World Bank's atlas methodology. By comparison, 1998 per capita GDP in neighboring countries was: Kazakhstan, $1,340; Kyrgyz Republic, $380; Russia, $2,260; Uzbekistan, $950.
The official unemployment rate (3.1 percent in 1999) grossly underestimates actual unemployment for several reasons. The official data do not account for substantial unemployment and underemployment in inactive SOEs and in rural areas. Moreover, many of the unemployed have not registered as such because of the low unemployment benefits, which are often less than the costs incurred in claiming them. Furthermore, unemployment is exacerbated by the continuing repatriation of refugees as well as the demobilization of opposition fighters, only a portion of whom are being absorbed into the Government armed forces. Actual unemployment in Tajikistan is likely to be on the order of 30 percent of the labor force according to the Poverty Assessment by WB (April 2000). The ILO has estimated unemployment at 16 percent (1999).
The poverty line and minimum consumption basket will be reviewed as part of a technical assistance to improve poverty monitoring. Currently, they are inconsistent since it is possible to be above the poverty line but still not consume the minimum consumption basket.

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A. Economic Performance Assessment

C. Assessment of Socio-Environmental Performance

Regions and Countries

B. Poverty Assessment