Regions and Countries

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p. 10 of 10 BACK | NEXT Executive Summary I. Current Development Trends and Issues II. The Government's Development Strategy III. ADB's Development Experience IV. ADB's Strategy V. ADB's Assistance Program VI. Risks and Performance Monitoring and Evaluation

Afghanistan: Initial Country Strategy and Program 2002-2004

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VI. Risks and Performance Monitoring and Evaluation

A. Risks

95. A number of high risks and uncertainties are associated with ADB operations in Afghanistan. First, common to all external funding agencies, is the uncertainty of the security situation. The overall political and security situation remains volatile, and it is yet to be seen how much the situation will improve even after the Loya Jirga and at what pace. This will have to be borne in mind as ADB initiates operations in Afghanistan. ADB will closely monitor the situation. All ADB-assisted programs and projects will be limited to secure areas. Through quick-impact projects, ADB will contribute to building confidence among people who would have a stake in helping to restore and maintain peace and security. Second, related to the security risk and also common to all external funding agencies, is the risk associated with political uncertainty. Political stability after the Loya Jirga and the new provisional government, and the capacity and accountability of its aid operation will be a key to the effectiveness of ADB assistance. Third is the potential complication of the government structure that could make the implementation of aid projects and TAs difficult. The Government represents a loose alliance of forces, and the line of authority between the center, the provinces, and the local level is unclear. The overall structure of the Government and the center-province relationship will have to be constitutionally clarified. ADB will remain prepared to adjust flexibly as the situation evolves. Fourth, there is risk associated with aid coordination. As one moves into the phase of strategy articulation and program and project preparation and implementation, the absorptive and coordinating capacity of AACA, MOF, the line ministries, and the provincial authorities will be severely stressed. One would be working in a situation characterized by extremely weak institutional capacity at the level of the Central Government and local bodies. To mitigate this, ADB will provide TA for immediate and long-term capacity building.

B. Monitoring Process and Plan

96. AACA will be responsible for overall monitoring of the progress of implementation of the rehabilitation and reconstruction program over the 2002-2004 period. It will also monitor the progress made with social and poverty indicators. An agreed upon set of indicators will be developed including macroeconomic policy and institution-based indicators, sector policy and institution-based indicators, poverty and social indicators, gender-based indicators, physical development indicators, financial indicators, and environmental indicators. From the point of view of ADB's CSP, indicators could be grouped under the social development, physical development, and capacity-building categories with particular emphasis on the reduction of poverty. Eventually, in addition to AACA, the monitoring process will involve several institutions including the statistical office, the Central Government, and the line ministries. There are serious capacity gaps in skilled human resources; field survey, data collection and analysis capacity; computer network; management feedback; report writing; and dissemination. The institutional capacity in various agencies to carry out monitoring is almost non-existent. Detailed monitoring will impose a serious burden on all agencies but is unavoidable. This is why support will be mobilized to rapidly develop information systems at central, provincial, and local levels. Information collection and processing will have to be coordinated. Without generation of reliable data, it will be difficult to monitor the use and impact of external assistance. ADB will provide help to develop this capacity.

Back V. ADB's Assistance Program	Afghanistan: Initial Country Strategy and Program 2002-2004