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Countries and Regions Country Partnership Strategies Document
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Country Strategy and Program Update 2006-2010: Bangladesh
VI. Risks and Results-Based Monitoring and EvaluationA. Risks102. The political risks to implementing reforms are high. With elections approaching, a significant risk is that political instability may increase. The Government's reform program might be diluted or deferred by confrontational politics and lack of political consensus. Moreover, should political confrontation trigger an upsurge in hartals and the Government fail to improve law and order, private sector investment may not be forthcoming at the levels anticipated in the NPRS. While ADB can do little to mitigate the political risks, some bilateral DPs are actively engaged in a dialogue with the Government on these issues aimed at fostering multiparty harmony. In anticipation of these risks, the CSP emphasizes reforms that are formulated in a participatory manner, implemented incrementally and sequentially, and generate short-term, visible payoffs. The CSP also provides support for a large number of consultative and participatory processes to help build broad-based, bipartisan commitment to the NPRS reform agenda. 103. Another related risk is weak implementation capacity. Deterioration in civil service efficiency and weak incentives due to low public sector salaries and poor management of the civil service could contribute to slow progress in NPRS implementation. The CSP will mitigate these risks by strategic interventions in support of governance management training and capacity building to improve implementation capacity to foster reforms and improve project implementation. Greater emphasis will be placed on linking substantive governance training to promotions policy and making greater use of e-governance to improve public sector performance. 104. A challenging external environment and a vulnerable domestic eco-setting pose risks to the economic growth assumptions underlying the CSP outcomes. Garment exports could be adversely affected by the phasing-out of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement trade preferences. In addition, higher global petroleum prices may threaten external balances. The CSP acknowledges the seriousness of these risks, but recognizes that more open and competitive global markets present tremendous opportunities for the export of labor-intensive goods and services. To help manage risks arising from global market uncertainties, the CSP accords special emphasis to improving competitiveness and efficiency, deregulating energy prices, building the skills base, deepening regional integration, diversifying exports, and nurturing new sources of private sector-led growth. Finally, natural disasters could disrupt investment operations and aggravate poverty conditions. To help anticipate and mitigate the effects of serious floods, ADB will contribute to the multi-aid effort that is helping the Government build its early warning and disaster response capacity, and will mainstream flood concerns into all ADB operations. B. Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation Process and Plan105. Robust monitoring and evaluation systems are required to track progress and assess NPRS and CSP implementation, and to actively manage ADB assistance to Bangladesh. In applying these systems, ADB will harmonize its efforts with those of the Government, and of other DPs and stakeholders, to use existing national systems to the greatest extent possible, and to build capacity to generate and utilize the information required for accurate and timely decision making. 106. The NPRS envisions a well-functioning poverty monitoring and evaluation system built on a systematic approach using existing data collection instruments through (i) using information to assess progress and adjust actions; (ii) drawing on civil society organizations and academia to generate independent analysis of government policies; and (iii) sharing information with those responsible for and affected by government initiatives. The National Poverty Focal Point at the General Economics Division (GED) under the Planning Commission will coordinate poverty monitoring and evaluation together with the IMED and will draw on a combination of government reporting, and information generated by civil society organizations, including independent research institutes. 107. To operationalize the contemplated monitoring and evaluation framework, GED's institutional capacity will be strengthened by mobilizing skilled technical staff and developing an effective management information system. Functional links will be established between GED and the IMED to provide GED staff with a sense of project activities and results to facilitate interpretation of linkages between project interventions and development outcomes. Links will be developed between GED's management information system and the databases of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Bangladesh Bank, and the line ministries. Capacity of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics will be strengthened with functional integration with Bangladesh Bank, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, and key ministries. Networking with NGOs and civil society organizations will also be needed to facilitate participatory monitoring of NPRS implementation. ADB, in cooperation with other DPs, is assisting GED in establishing an institutional and coordination framework for poverty monitoring and evaluation, developing a participatory poverty monitoring mechanism, and devising a suitable means for engaging civil society organizations in poverty monitoring. 108. ADB will continue its partnership with the Government and other stakeholders including the DPs to monitor NPRS achievement. In addition to tracking overall progress in poverty reduction and the delivery of key results, the monitoring exercise will assess (i) the Government's reform program and its implications for fostering poverty reduction, (ii) sector portfolio performance, (iii) lending and nonlending assistance to ensure the relevance and effectiveness of ADB assistance, (iv) performance-based allocation of ADF resources based on the revised PBA assessment system, and (v) OCR borrowing capacity. 109. CSP monitoring will be a part of the overall monitoring of NPRS implementation. To do so, ADB will make use of, and assist in building the capacity of the Government's existing monitoring and evaluation systems. In addition, CSP monitoring will be fully integrated with efforts to assess the performance of external assistance provided by other DPs. A process of jointly monitoring and managing for results, together with Government and the other DPs, will help to maintain the momentum and spirit of harmonization and alignment to support poverty reduction in Bangladesh.
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