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Table of Contents
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Executive Summary
Map
I. Introduction
II. The ADB-Philippines Partnership Experience
III. The Development Context
IV. ADB’s Strategy and Assistance Program
V. Risks and Assumptions
VI. Resourcing the Strategy and Program
Appendixes
Country Strategy and Program Update 2005-2007: Philippines

IV. ADB’s Strategy and Assistance Program

A. ADB’s Strategy

  1. Almost 40% of Filipinos subsist on $2 or less per day, with many more vulnerable to falling into such poverty. Freedom from persistent, pervasive and intense poverty is the cornerstone MTPDP vision and for ADB’s development partnership with the Philippines. However, the magnitude of the fiscal imbalance raises a major challenge for resourcing the MTPDP. The fiscal imbalance injects uncertainty into the ADB-Philippines partnership, inhibiting the Government’s capacity to accommodate ADB’s main instruments of support—public sector loans. Broader and deeper economic reforms are necessary to allow fiscal space for development spending, and to improve the investment climate for greater private participation. Given these imperatives, the CSP modifies ADB’s mode of engagement to allow for greater focus and selectivity, introduces a results-based framework to upgrade its usefulness as a management tool, and pays greater attention to project quality-at-entry. The Government-ADB development partnership context is elaborated in Figure 2.
  2. Refined focus. The CSP’s focus derives from the urgent need for supporting fiscal consolidation and an improved investment climate, which are currently preeminent among the six principal constraints (see para. 25 and Appendix 4) to more rapid poverty reduction and progress toward the MDGs. The other four development constraints remain valid for longer-term engagement, and will provide the broadened focus under a subsequent medium-term CSP.
  3. Increased operational selectivity. To increase selectivity, the CSP will focus ADB support on activities (i) in high-priority areas21, (ii) with high likelihood of achieving intended outcomes, and (iii) compatible with ADB’s comparative advantage and capacity to deliver. The selection process is guided by the performance of the ongoing portfolio, post evaluation findings, activities of other development partners, and the suitability of sector policies and the institutional framework, among others, to maximize development impact. The three priority operational areas are power, finance, and governance (covering local government and the judicial system). While the fiscal constraints persist, direct support for the MDGs will be coursed through off-budget financing mechanisms. This will imply that ADB will disengage from some areas in which it has been active.
  4. Quality at entry. To ensure quality-at-entry new project will be included only if it is fully supported by ADB and the oversight and executing agencies, and is socially acceptable to the community at large. At each stage of processing, assessments will be made whether to

    Box 1. Philippine Government Readiness Criteria in Screening Projects

    There are seven requisites or “filters,” designed to ensure project preparedness before loan approval, that have been adopted and strictly being implemented by the Government, namely:

    • Investment Coordination Committee quality conditions met by executing agencies prior to Monetary Board approval.
    • Projects designed with monitoring and evaluation.
    • Funding for first year of implementation allocated in the budget.
    • Projects with bidding documents ready before National Economic and Development Authority Board presentation for initial 12 months of Implementation.
    • Land acquisition plan and payments equivalent to first year of civil works completed.
    • Projects with Project Implementation Units established and staffed by appraisal.
    • Projects complying with procurement/financial management requirements.

    continue based on (i) absorptive capacity of the implementing agencies in relation to the loan amount and scale of the project; (ii) funding for the first year of implementation is allocated in the budget and future budget requirements are included under the agency budget ceiling; (iii) designs which are results-focused on outcomes with identified monitoring and evaluation indicators; (iv) compliance with Government’s readiness criteria (including approval from the Investment Coordinating Committee); and (v) completion of land acquisition and resettlement plans.

  5. Figure 2. ADB-PHILIPPINES PARTNERSHIP

  6. Strengthening existing and developing new client partnerships. ADB will strengthen existing, and forge new, partnerships with selected off-budget entities (GOCCs, GFIs, LGUs, and civil society organizations) to avoid direct burden on the NG budget. The objectives are to enhance autonomy and resource mobilization of GOCCs and LGUs, improve financial intermediation of GFIs, and involve a broader range of stakeholders in ADB’s partnership with the Philippines through engagement with civil society. Greater engagement with LGUs will be based on their commitment to sound planning and public resource management, ability to borrow and service debt, and willingness to improve services and the local investment climate, including local public-private partnerships. Some good examples are arising from the ongoing Development of Poor Urban Communities Project22 which combines better city planning with slum upgrading and eradication, while lessons from successful slum upgrading pilots undertaken in partnership with NGOs are being incorporated to the design of a similar initiative for Metro Manila. Power sector entities are a primary focus, as they contribute most to the consolidated fiscal deficit. Support to GOCCs and GFIs will pay attention to the prudential limits for the agencies’ contingent liabilities, and may incorporate some financial engineering measures (e.g., debt management and restructuring) to ensure that agency borrowings do not further degrade the consolidated fiscal deficit. ADB has established a sound partnership with the Supreme Court, to improve governance through support for increased judicial autonomy and accountability. New partnerships have been established with the (i) Office of the Ombudsman to strengthen and carry forward anti-corruption iniatives and the (ii) Bangsa Moro Development Authority and other civil society groups in regard to development support for Mindanao.
  7. Linked with these partnerships is an acceleration of our activities with other development partners. Not only for joint studies and shared work to support mutual frameworks of assistance, but also to expand on-the-ground cooperative efforts. The Philippines Development Forum working groups have been maintained, some co-chaired by ADB, that are preparing shared agendas for support in areas such as local government and anti-corruption; similar to the excellent cooperation for the Action Plan for Judicial Reform under the auspices of the Supreme Court. There is a growing linkage, through the sharing of design criteria and terms of reference, that provide for ADB operations to benefit directly from LGU capacity-building programs under bilateral grants, as well as discussions of shared personnel or consultant resources for joint project development, feasibility studies and implementation support. ADB is in close dialogue with the Philippines Economic Governance Facility (AusAid) to ensure complementarity in our support for results management, particularly in the Department of Budget and Management (DBM). While joint missions with the World Bank, JBIC, and some other bilateral partners maintain a consistent dialogue on harmonization and adoption of country systems.
  8. Security, peace, and development in Mindanao. Mindanao has been plagued by a decades-old separatist movement, kidnappings by the Abu Sayyaf Group, and reports of training camps for the international terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah. The price of war has been high, with Mindanao lagging behind Luzon and Visayas in all economic and social indicators, despite having rich natural resources. Five provinces in Mindanao are among the 10 poorest in the country while Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), where the separatist movement is based, is one of the poorest regions. ADB’s strategy for Mindanao rests on three pillars. First, it acknowledges a sustainable peace is essential to development, while development is needed to underwrite peace. Second, Mindanao’s low absorptive capacity means institution strengthening is as important as project investment. Third, the strategy positions for a quick response to a peace agreement. Building on the lessons of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) peace process, a Joint Needs Assessment (JNA) is underway with development partners to assess the reconstruction and development priorities of Mindanao’s conflict-affected communities in preparation for a possible Mindanao Trust Fund to serve as a “peace dividend” to be activated once a peace agreement is signed.
  9. Regional cooperation. There is strong complementarity between the CSP and ADB’s Southeast Asia regional cooperation strategy and program (RCSP).23 The principal strategic objective of the RCSP is to enhance competitiveness of Southeast Asia to generate sustainable high rates of economic growth. This is supported by a second objective of integrating isolated poorer contiguous areas of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines into regional and extraregional trading networks, so that growth is balanced and pro-poor, thereby creating economic conditions to mitigate security problems posing a threat to regional prosperity. Erosion of Philippine economic competitiveness highlighted in the RCSP can be traced, in part, to the same factors the CSP identifies as inhibiting more rapid poverty reduction. Thus, the manner in which the CSP addresses those issues forges a direct link to the RCSP. The RCSP’s second objective aligns directly with the CSP’s strategic focus on the poorer, isolated areas of southern Philippines.
  10. Portfolio management. The significant improvements in portfolio quality must be maintained. This will require close attention to quality at entry, and diligent monitoring of the ongoing portfolio. Effective downstream activities of portfolio management are integral to the quality of the development partnership. The portfolio management system, processes and oversight have been strengthened by both ADB and the Government over the past two years to make them less event driven and more continuous. The system–built around the key milestone activities of formal reviews–is proving effective, but staff intensive.

B. Strategic Thrust of ADB’s Policy Engagement

  1. The large public budget deficits since 1997 impact all aspects of the ADB-Philippines partnership. The lack of adequate fiscal headroom constrains line departments’ capacity to implement ongoing projects according to schedule, delaying project outcomes, threatening to reverse improvements, and increasing loan commitment charges paid by Government to ADB. The fiscal imbalance also injects uncertainty into available capacity to implement proposed projects, making programming difficult. In 2004, full processing of public sector investment loans, many at advanced stages of processing, was suspended. Lending to GOCCs or channeling assistance through GFIs, which have been the mainstay for ADB lending operations since 2001, provides opportunities for “off-budget” support for high priority development projects. However, support for development projects of LGUs—another major area of the partnership—has been affected by the Government’s decision in 2000 to amend the nationallocal government financing mechanism, establish the Municipal Finance Corporation (MFC), and discontinue grant funding for devolved activities.24
  2. In the process of CSP formulation and policy dialogue, ADB has been developing a set of targeted sector policy reform packages, each of which is expected to have a direct impact on at least one of Philippines’ three most critical binding development constraints: (i) fiscal imbalance, (ii) poor investment climate and (iii) weak governance. Selectivity in the CSP is driven by sharpening ADB’s focus on these three thematic priorities and all policy based interaction and lending cluster under these priorities. This focused approach is designed to maximize the impact of ADB operations in the coming three years, provide a strong boost to the Government’s efforts to sharply reverse negative trends in these key policy areas, and set the stage for a broader program of investment and policy-based operations in the next planning period. In parallel, the choice of sector interventions has been prioritized by focusing on investments that meet income and non-income MDGs with former being supported by development of SME and microfinance developments as well as improving access to water supply, integrated coastal resource management and rural roads. Under this approach to selectivity, ADB has practically withdrawn from a number of sectors of which most significant areas of withdrawal are airports, rail construction, secondary ports, livestock, tertiary and nonformal education, and solid waste management.
  3. Table 3 illustrates the links between the development constraints and the three targeted sector policy reform areas – power, financial markets (including microfinance), and governance (including local government and judicial systems). Of the five policy based operations covering these three areas, two operations will have a direct impact on fiscal consolidation. The Power Sector Development Program (PSDP) aims to address the largest sources of the public sector fiscal imbalance stemming from the losses incurred by public power agencies. PSDP aims to reduce the losses at the NPC and enhance the creditworthiness of Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation (PSALM) and the energy companies, and to create conditions for privatization of major power assets, removing the responsibility for their operations from the public sector. The Local Governance and Finance Development Program(LGFDP) focuses on improved resource mobilization and budget operations at the LGU level, in order to: (a) reduce LGU dependence on NG transfers, which make up 16% of NG expenditures and (b) enhance the sustainability of fiscal consolidation by strengthening the ability of LGUs to deliver improved services to their people even under a tightening resource envelope.
  4. Investment climate issues are a focus of all proposed program lending operations. Infrastructure weaknesses have been repeatedly identified by businesses as a key obstacle to investment in the Philippines, and the PSDP and LGFDP will both address infrastructure shortcomings, through putting the power sector on sounder financial footing and through enhancing LGU capacity and access to financing for infrastructure investment. The Financial Markets and Intermediation Program (FMIP) targets another central weakness in the investment climate by promoting a more efficient financial sector that can finance profitable private investment projects at lower cost and risk than at present. It will support the establishment of more effective financial sector regulation and governance, strengthening the financial condition of the banking sector through resolution of non-performing loans. Similarly, the Microfinance Development Program will help create a more efficient rural banking sector, strengthening access to investment and operating finance for small rural businesses. The proposed new Governance and Judicial Sector Reform Program directly targets another of the most serious weaknesses in the investment climate; the lack of transparent, reliable rule of law, and the related problem of corruption.
  5. In addition to the direct impact on improved governance of the judicial and financial markets programs, as described above, two of the other lending operations also have major governance components. The PSDP focuses considerable attention on strengthening the regulatory regime for this sector, improving governance in this sector and establishing a precedent for independent regulation in other sectors. The LGFDP is built around the promotion of more transparent and participatory governance at the LGU level, including enhanced performance measurement, creation of new internal audit functions, and a more transparent and participatory budget process.
Table 3: Link Between Strategic Objectives and Sector Reforms
Mitigating the Fiscal Impact of the Sector and Exploiting Avenues for Resource Mobilization Improving the Investment Climate Enhancing Public Sector Efficiency
  • National Power Corporation (NPC) operational and accumulated liabilities on account of IPPs together are a major drain on the consolidated fiscal deficit. The operating deficit of NPC as of end 2003 was P5.3 billion (approximately $99 million equivalent), and its long term debt as of December 2004 (net of the P200 billion absorbed by NG), was P371.4 billion (approximately $6.6 billion equivalent), which is 7.7% of nominal GDP 2004 (i.e., P4843.4 billion).
  • Restoring financial sector liabilities as such is critical to fiscal resolution and will be key to attracting new investments in power sector
  • Restoration of financial viability calls for rationalization of the debt service profiles of NPC and power related debt of NG and raising adequate revenues through tariffs, the universal charges, and the privatization proceeds, must mobilized.
  • To ensure efficiency and relieve the budget of the burden of power sector development, the Government is contemplating bidding out TRANSCO while encouraging new generation in private sector.
  • In order to revitalize investments in private sector which have been affected by issues surrounding lack of effective legal and regulatory framework, the Government needs to strengthen the capacities of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) further.
  • ERC is in process of ensuring its independence and developing its technical competence with the support of ADB TA No. 4557- PHI
  • ERC is strengthening its technical capacity to set appropriate rates and regulate the industry so that industry participants have recourse and are assured they can recover reasonable costs, while consumers benefit from improved efficiencies and service delivery.
  • ERC will be developing further competence with respect to competition rules, as well as ensuring open access to transmission and distribution lines.
  • A reliable and well designed privatization process will support timely privatization of the generation and transmission assets.
  • The electricity industry needs a wholesale electricity spot market, clear market rules including prudential guarantees from participants, and risk mitigation facilities to support and improve the reliability of market transactions.
  • Private investment in power generation and transmission will require political risk mitigation facilities in light of increased worldwide, regional, and country risk.
  • Nationwide transmission bottlenecks and systems losses need to be reduced.
  • Generation in key economic areas needs to be augmented in the near term.
  • A supplier of last resort for the market must be established or appointed (or rules adopted for its appointment) in order to protect consumers from non-delivery of electric power due to technical or market failures.
  • Performance-based regulation for the transmission and distribution utilities will force efficiency improvements to be shared with consumers.
LOCAL GOVERNANCE AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
  • Decentralization has now taken hold after the introduction of Local Government Code in 1991. However, there remains a mismatch between resource sharing mechanism as well as expenditure obligations even though LGUs end up balancing the budget.
  • In 2003 financial transfers from NG to LGUs absorbed about 22.5% of national government revenue collections, and accounted for 16.1% of total general government expenditures; on average the transfers provide 80% of provincial and municipal income, although this is as high as 95% in ARMM.
  • Although the prescribed internal revenue allotment constitutes about 40% of the national revenue (on top of which there are other sources of national transfers), local resources are insufficient to meet expenditure requirements. The revenue transfers do not give due consideration to equity and efficiency.
  • Most LGUs rely too heavily on revenue transfers from the NG and lose the opportunity to drive the economic engines of their constituencies.
  • To meet their mandate to provide for the general welfare, power the engines of economy at their levels, and support national development, LGUs need to improve sector efficiencies through stronger own-resource mobilization (especially local taxes and charges) and enhanced access to non-government financing, including the capital markets.
  • The fund flow mechanisms from NG to LGUs, for both loan and grant financing, are quite weak and introduce uncertainties in planning and budgeting.
  • Regional borrowing mechanism prevents LGUs from local or external borrowing limiting their capacities to undertaken own development.
  • The capacity of most LGUs is inadequate to either access nontraditional financing mechanisms, or to enhance the investment climate within their constituency.
  • LGUs need to strengthen and coordinate their development planning, institutionalize proper budgeting against approved plans and targets, improve transparency and reliability of financial statements, and enhance their resource mobilization capacities.
  • LGUs need to be empowered to drive their own development agendas. They also need more rational access to non traditional financing mechanisms.
  • LGUs need to redefine their financing strategies through improved tax administration, and enhanced capacities for debt management, credit financing and LGU bond floatation.
  • Public-private partnerships at the subnational level need to be encouraged.
  • Business registration and compliance services at the local level must be improved.
  • Incentives for domestic and foreign investors at the subnational level should be designed to reduce regional disparities.
  • The Local Government Code devolves significant responsibilities to LGUs’, but commensurate institutional and financial resources of LGUs are inadequate. This reduces service delivery efficiency.
  • The following need to be advocated and supported:
    • Full implementation of devolved functions and financial responsibilities;
    • Improved planning-budgeting– finance linkages, coupled with strong development coordination at the regional levels;
    • Improved service delivery efficiency;
    • ICT supported financial & administrative systems.
    • Strengthened capacity at the national level to deliver technical assistance and advice to the LGUs.
    • Strengthened audit functions and fiscal controls, both within the LGUs and at the level of the national oversight agencies.
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND INTERMEDIATION
  • Higher level of financial intermediation between savers and investors & strengthened regulation and supervision are needed to increase the sector’s contribution to economic growth.
  • The non-bank sector is relatively underdeveloped, and corporate financing relies predominantly on bank finance.
  • The banking sector is over-banked with 42 commercial banks and some 900 thrift and rural banks, and is quite undercapitalized and is burdened by an overhang of nonperforming assets.
  • Insurance sector also has too many small and poorly capitalized nonlife insurance companies and has yet to adopt modern supervision framework.
  • Regulation is fragmented for the three main subsectors (banks, non-banks, insurance).
  • Fiscal consolidation, credible inflation targeting and sound debt management will increase investor confidence and bring about a more conducive environment for investments.
  • An efficient and resilient financial sector will support the growing requirements of infrastructure development and other private investment.
  • Enhanced financial governance through effective regulation and supervision contributes to a better investment confidence and climate.
  • Resolution of the debt overhang in the banking sector will free up resources for lending and investments.
  • Better regulatory and supervisory enforcement helps in building depositor and consumer confidence.
  • Development of debt markets provides alternative long term funding for the investors.
  • The Financial Sector Forum should be supported in its efforts to harmonize disclosure requirements, enhance information, sharing between regulators, and strengthen skills in regulatory agencies in order to maker regulation and supervision more effective.
  • Developed and liquid securities markets need to be supported so as to contribute to more efficient financial intermediation for consumers and corporations.
  • There is a need to improve financial market infrastructure and credit information so as to reduce risks and transaction costs.
MICROFINANCE DEVELOPMENT
  • The majority of poor households do not have access to microfinance services, and rely on selffinance or informal sources of microfinance, limiting their ability to participate in and benefit from development opportunities and incomegenerating activities
  • Microenterprises account for 92% of the business establishments in the Philippines and 38% of the employment. Expansion of business and employment in this sector requires expanded outreach and access to efficient microfinance services at competitive prices.
  • Higher level of financial intermediation between savers and investors & strengthened regulation are needed to increase the sector’s contribution to economic growth.
  • Regulation is fragmented for the sub-sectors (cooperatives, banks and non-governmental organizations).
    o The rural banking sector must be opened to allow foreign investment. o Systems and regulatory frameworks must be put in place to enable MFIs to capture remittance flows currently outside the formal systems ($7.6+ billion). o Savings mobilization will be supported through increased access to savings services nationwide; innovative savings programs; and increased formal remittances. o A partial credit guarantee facility for qualified MFIs will support domestic bond issuances. o A national credit bureau, that specifically covers microfinance transactions, is need.
  • Efficiency of this sector will improve through
    • Increased transparency, disclosure and governance for a robust and competitive market.
    • Capacity building of MFIs including the 4000+ credit and savings cooperatives.
    • Privatization of Philippine Postal Savings Bank to increase operating efficiencies and support national expansion of savings services.
    • National financial literacy and education program to increase understanding and access to services. Increased knowledge of MFIs clients will also support a more competitive and efficient delivery of services.
    • Capacity building of regulatory authorities to support a safe and sound sector and MFI compliance.
GOVERNANCE AND JUDICIAL SYSTEM
  • Governance issues are central to the widespread perception that the Philippines is less attractive as an investment destination than its neighbors. The opportunities lost as a result of this have compromised growth prospects and undermined the country’s ability to reduce poverty.
  • Tax evasion and widespread corruption in public procurement have also gravely impaired the country’s available resources for needed development spending.
  • Lack of effective incentive and poor accountability result in rent seeking behavior and add to the cost of business.
  • The hidden costs of doing business, enforcing rights, and demanding the performance of obligations properly due, as a result of people’s inability to obtain timely and reliable justice, have also deterred foreign and local investment.
  • There is a need to make corruption a “high risk, low return” undertaking through sustained efforts to prosecute corrupt officials and tax evaders, speedy but just trials, an unwavering resolution to equally punish those found guilty, and concerted efforts to nurture new generations with zero tolerance for any form of corruption and strong concepts of good governance and democratic governments.
  • Public procurement, project implementation, public service delivery, and resource expenditure and management must be subjected to strong transparency and accountability measures which involve reliable oversight agencies, large groups of civil society, and ICT supported systems.
  • The operational, administrative, and institutional capacities of the Ombudsman, the special anti-corruption court (Sandiganbayan), the special tax courts, the public prosecutors and defense offices, the trial courts, the Court of Appeals, and Supreme Court need to be improved to reduce case congestion and delay, enhance judicial and legal competence (and skills), improve administrative support for judicial and legal functions, reduce rent seeking opportunities within these agencies, and reduce their susceptibility to political and economic pressures.
  • There is a need to support the institutional development of the Ombudsman’s Office, and the regular, appellate, and special courts to break the cycle of corruption and ensure that corrupt officials and tax evaders are prosecuted and appropriately punished.
  • Primary and secondary schools need to focus on values formation for zero corruption tolerance. Support in this area will require close coordination with the Department of Education, as well as the Supreme Court and the Ombudsman’s Office.
  • Support for improved procurement, project implementation, and resource flows need to be mainstreamed in every project, technical assistance, and program that is implemented.
  • Innovative but practical ways need to be considered for supporting civil society groups that act as watch dogs against corruption and as advocates for good governance.
  • The Action Program for Judicial Reform (covering all courts) and the Reform Program of the Ombudsman’s Office need to be fully supported. A SWAPp, developed together with the World Bank and in coordination with other development partners, may be considered to maximize the institutional development opportunities presented by these highly committed and reform oriented government bodies.
  1. The linkages between the three strategic objectives of the CSP are significant. Successful fiscal consolidation will strengthen the investment climate, by building confidence in macroeconomic stability. There is also an important link between governance reforms and an improved investment climate, as these reforms will establish and enforce a rules-based business and regulatory environment that encourages investment and rewards fair competition. Governance reforms also contribute directly to fiscal consolidation, as they will enable the government to perform its functions more efficiently, and operate effectively despite the tight caps on expenditures that have to be imposed for the next several years.
  2. Besides the high economic impact of holistic policy packages, the use of policy-based lending to leverage these reforms is particularly appropriate at this time, as the Government is intensely aware of the potential advantages of reducing borrowing costs by tapping ADB funds, rather than the commercial sources they have relied over the recent years. Each of the operations responds to this new Government perspective by incorporating conditionalities that are highly significant, so that their achievement will make a clear contribution toward the objectives of the CSP. Care has also been taken to design conditionalities that are feasible, so that they have the desired incentive effects.

C. Private Sector Strategy and Operations

  1. As described in paragraph 16, results have been mixed from ADB’s private sector transactions in the Philippines since 1986. PSOD investments in the power sector, together with public sector loans, acted as catalysts to attract other financing and brought about a rapid resolution to the power crisis of the early 1990s. ADB’s public sector policy support and program lending for capital market development and governance in the nonbank financial sector provided the underpinning for an equity investment in LGUGC; while LGUGC bond guarantees provide a key financial instrument to support ongoing policy dialogue and operations to broaden the LGU borrowing capacities based on improved local planning, budget, expenditure and revenue management.
  2. The CSP advocates increased synergy between ADB’s public and private sector operations to enhance investor confidence to promote private investment critical to offset fiscally-constrained public investment. The policy loans identified in the CSP support improved investment climate and seek to revolve sector efficiencies to attract private sector investment. ADB-supported private sector operations will be integral to their success. For example, the Power Sector Development loan support for a well-regulated, privatized power sector, together with financial viable investments, will amplify investor interest. Private sector operations will partner with the public sector to provide a partial credit guarantee (PCG) and investment for privatization of power sector assets under the program. The SME Development Support loan is an example of how the public and private sector instruments and TA grants can be used to support polity initiatives, and through different financial products, target distinct segments of the SME market. The loan will include a PCG to encourage private banks to expand their SME portfolios and technical assistance and equity to support establishment of a credit information bureau. The Microfinance Development Program also proposes a PCG Facility for qualified MFIs to issue a domestic bond and meet their requirements. The CSP’s support for Local Government Financing and Budget Reform will contribute to an improved investment climate at a subnational level, and strengthen potential for public–private partnerships involving private sector operations. Similarly, the CSP support for improved governance and efficiency in the judiciary and the improved financial market regulation and intermediation will strengthen the basis for private sector investment. Thus, ADB’s public and private sector operations will be both catalytic and reinforcing during the CSP period. They will reinforce the fiscal consolidation process by (i) placing less demand on public resources, (ii) reducing pressure on public debt by allowing Government access to foreign and local funds at competitive spreads and for longer maturity, and (iii) reducing the need for public spending by “crowding in” private participation.
  3. ADB operations, both public and private, will contribute to the rehabilitation of the investment climate through providing multi-dimensional support to improve the enabling conditions for the private sector. The focus of ADB’s private sector strategy under the CSP is to (i) create enabling conditions for business, (ii) generate business opportunities for private sector in ADB-financed public sector projects, and (iii) catalyze private investment.25 Central to this are governance reforms, i.e., establishing and enforcing a rules-based business and regulatory environment that encourages investment and rewards fair competition. Support to adequate physical infrastructure facilities and availability of finance as they allow business to operate, access markets and finance growth is coupled with fundamental governance reforms. While there is need for immediate private investment to generate employment and address infrastructure constraints, the long-term benefits of related investments will depend on the establishment of a much stronger legal, regulatory and institutional framework within each sector and the economy as a whole.

D. ADB Lending Scenario and Modalities

  1. ADB, the World Bank, and International Monetary Fund (IMF), have been closely working on a macroeconomic framework utilizing a common analytical framework.26 The tax measures and the power tariff revisions taken to date have the potential to resolve the fiscal deficit over the medium term. Full revenue potential of new tax measures has yet to unfold and the continued expenditure stringency would be a challenge in case the pressures on adjustment of civil services remuneration build up. As a result continued vigilance is required relative to budgetary outturns in line with expectations. During this transitional period of crucial implementation of the fiscal reforms, the ADB will provide program support to assist that implementation of the budgetary, power and related reforms as long as the transition remains on track. This process is buttressed by the fact that the new revenue measures to date are already on annual basis, equivalent to 0.8% of GDP. This is composed of P36 billon (or 0.7 % of GDP) from the power tariff increases to date and the revenue from the sin taxes which amount to P7 billion or 0.13 % of GDP on an annual basis already under collection. In addition to those receipts, P 28 billion or 0.5% of GDP is expected based upon the official estimates for the VAT collections in 2005.
  2. Given this upfront adjustment, ADB lending level could be in the range of $1-1.5 billion for 2005-2007 including $100-$150 million project lending. Continued rapid progress on the fiscal front by the Government could also be supported by ADB through cofinancing the proposed single tranche Development Policy Loan which is contemplated under the high case scenario of the World Bank’s in its Country Assistance Strategy.27 Any significant reversals in fiscal trends and policy or lack of sector policy reforms at the desired pace would reduce prospects for achievement of the proposed lending scenario. In this eventuality, ADB will be able to deliver a few selective and, if feasible, some down-sealed policy based operations which would be mainly for supporting the microfinance reform and local governance and finance reforms off budget project support for the GOCCs/GFIs and the sector national support programs in partnership with the World Bank. The average annual lending under this scenario would be in the range of $150-200 million.
  3. Assistance instruments. To be responsive to client requirements, ADB will need to exploit the use of ADB’s full range of existing instruments flexibly as well as new products, policies and procedures that have been developed under the IEI. The approaches and modalities will have to involve a judicious mix of interventions that are custom-fitted to the needs of the country. Of most relevance under the IEI, would be the flexibility to adopt for the Philippines the Multitranche Financing Facility which would allow to phase in investments at an appropriate pace, Subsovereign and NonSovereign Public Sector Financing Facility, the Local Currency financing for public sector operations etc. as well as new cost sharing and expenditure financing for ADB projects in accordance with the policies as approved by the Board. 28 To be supportive of the fiscal consolidation process, CSP envisages high proportion of policy based lending with judicious investment lending supportive of the public expenditure priorities as agreed upon within the national programs. Part of the investment lending will be also coursed through off-budget agencies (GOCCs and GFIs). This will remain important, even with a successful program to enhance tax revenues since the Government intends to use the incremental tax resources to reduce debt and not to finance projects.
  4. The 2005–2007 lending program will focus on 10 operations (sequencing of these are presented in Figure 3 and Appendix 5).

    1. Policy-based loan operations: To complement fiscal consolidation, and revive private investment and reduce sector policy distortion, as a part of the CSP dialogue ADB has been working on a series of Sector Program Loans including Power Sector Development, Financial Regulation and Intermediation, Microfinance, and Local Governance and Finance. The pipeline includes program cluster operations with single tranches, an instrument ideally suited to the uncertain situation. Program loans will be provided under the usual safeguards, especially careful consideration of the strength of sector reforms and the sustainability provided by a conducive macroeconomic environment. Detailed due diligence will be undertaken on sector-level reforms to ensure effective leveraging of policy reform. The timing, size and sequencing of sector program loans would however depend on fiscal consolidation progress which will lead to greater absorbency, while ADB policy lending will contribute to that progress—thus forming a virtuous cycle to reduce the fiscal deficit.
    2. Investment loan operations provide direct support to the MDGs. Each involves lending through an off budget agency (a water and sewage GOCC; a GFI; and three with LGU involvement) with limited technical support and counterpart needed from the National Government. These projects will be part of the low case scenario and are shown as “below the line” in Figure 3. The Government has reconfirmed the priority of the projects; processing will continue to ensure readiness criteria are met. Unlike Program lending, progress against fiscal criteria is not required to process these projects, but rigorous due diligence will be undertaken on the borrowing agencies (GOCCs, GFIs and LGUs) to ensure they have the financial strength to service their obligations and that the contingent liability of the ADB loan does not become a

      Figure 3. MILESTONES FOR THE CSP

      Figure 3. MILESTONES FOR THE CSP
      Government direct liability. The LGU operations have been affected by Government’s decision in 2000 to amend the national-local government financing mechanism, establish the Municipal Finance Corporation (MFC), and discontinue grant funding for devolved activities.29 As such some of the proposed project lending can only be channeled once the financing arrangements and procedures are in place.

  5. To support key line agencies of the national government that face severe budget limits, the use of the Sector Wide Approach (SWAp) to finance activities within the specific agency’s existing budget, but linked to progress on an articulated reform agenda, is one modality under evaluation. Given ADB’s limited exposure in implementing SWAps, it is likely that ADB would join with the World Bank for the SWAp, so as to provide realistic and consistent support for the latter’s National Program Support Operations (NPSO)30 in the Philippines.
  6. The results framework provides the management tool to monitor progress and the contribution of ADB operations towards achieving the desired fiscal outcomes. The criteria for investment and policy lending link ADB’s operations to the results matrix (Appendix 5). For each operation, the results matrix outlines an expected level of fiscal progress or readiness to be achieved prior to processing for approval; an anticipated contribution derived from the ADBfinanced operation; and the targeted cumulative impact of all activities (of which ADB operations are only a part) measured against baseline indicators over the CSP period. Faster progress means opportunity for acceleration in ADB operations. The total impact should alleviate fiscal constraints, providing the underpinnings for a medium-term CSP and return to more “normal” ADB operations.
  7. Transition to Normal Operations (2008-2012). The shift of the Philippines towards normal operations and the processing of projects that rely on budgetary resources would depend on the size of the actual adjustment effort achieved over 2005-2007 relative to 2004 and the introduction of new modalities. In aggregate the accumulated fiscal adjustment, as measured by the reduction in the National Government deficit, must be an achievement in the order of 1.5% of 2004 GDP and the power sector deficit would have to have been stabilized at a substantially reduced level, relative to its deficit in 2004. Future programs could then gradually shift to normal ADB operations as fiscal consolidation takes hold.
  8. Knowledge Products and Services. To complement lending, ADB will continue nonlending and KPS activities, including technical assistance totaling up to $4 million in any year (Appendix 6), in areas that align strongly with the CSP’s thrusts of supporting fiscal consolidation, the investment climate, and the MDGs.

    • Fiscal Responsibility. Support is programmed for improving Government’s risk management of public debt, and assessment and management of the contingent liabilities. Additional assistance could be available to augment revenue generation and financial management capacity in selected GOCCs and LGUs.
    • Urban Development, Water Supply and Environment Management. There are good prospects for KPS activities to improve the regulatory environment in the water supply and sanitation sub-sector as a basis for attracting private sector participation.
    • Transport. The ongoing Intermodal Transport Development PPTA31 may be redirected to support economic and sector work for planning and prioritizing transport sub-sectors to identify project opportunities, including feasibilities for bidding for private sector participation on a competitive basis, and enhancing the regulatory environment for shipping and air safety network and services. The lull in project lending provides an opportunity to address long-standing constraints related to land acquisition, eminent domain, resettlement compensation, and development of institutional capacity to address land and right-of-way acquisition and management.
    • Agriculture and Natural Resources. ADB will continue dialogue on development of sustainable enterprises and livelihoods, credit or inputs assistance for localized community development, and basic social services and infrastructure for improving quality of life of coastal residents, and rural poor. Pilot projects financed through bilateral trust funds or alternatives will be explored. Sector work will focus on improving LGU capacity for devolved responsibilities, as well as capacity strengthening for communitybased organizations, NGOs, communal irrigation systems, and irrigator cooperatives.
    • Health and Education. Efforts will focus on implementing the Health Sector Development Program, and completion of the Early Childhood Development Project. In the education sector, the move towards devolution is undermined by lack of budget cover. Faced with budget cover shortage for the past 3 years, and for 2004-2005, it is unlikely that the projects will be completed on time (end 2006). Given the delays, budget constraints, and large number of activities in the sector financed by other development partners, no additional activities in the education sector are planned for the CSP period.

  9. The close alignment of ADB’s operational program with the Government’s 10-point agenda and priorities of the MTPDP is indicated in Table 4.

E. External Funding Coordination and Partnership Arrangements

  1. ADB’s financial and technical resources will complement those from development partners, under the paradigm of “moving from coordination to cooperation”. The range of development partners is widening to include more intensive dialogue with civil society, members of Congress, and the private sector. ADB will continue to increase the partnerships for joint analytical and advisory work (e.g., membership of the Joint Oversight Committee for postconflict Mindanao includes some new partnerships with the Islamic Development Bank, the Bangsa Moro Development Authority, and NGOs). In conjunction with its lending program, ADB will continue to pursue cofinancing from other official and commercial sources. Dialogue is ongoing with the World Bank to develop not only parallel and complementary operations, but also to pursue SWAps through cofinancing of National Program Support operations to line agencies in ADB’s priority areas. ADB will maintain dialogue with the Government and private sector cofinanciers to identify appropriate financing for projects supported during 2005-2007, specifically through the use of its credit enhancement products.
  2. ADB works closely with the World Bank and Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) through joint portfolio reviews, and regular technical working group meetings. Cofinancing partners for TAs and loans are being sourced to reduce the burden of project
Table 4. Alignment of ADB’s Operational Program with the 10-Point Agenda and MTPDP Priorities
10-Point Agenda and MTPDP Priorities ADB Program
Agenda 1: BALANCED BUDGET BY 2009
  • Fiscal Strength
  • Local Government Financing and Budget Reform SDP
  • Improving Risk Management of Public Sector Debt (TA)
  • Financial Sector
  • Financial Markets Regulation and Intermediation SDP
  • Strengthening the Anti-Money Laundering Regime, Phase II (TA)
  • Financial Markets Regulation and Reform (TA)
  • Power Sector Reforms
  • Power Sector Development Program
  • Anticorruption
  • Governance and Judicial Reform Program
  • Strengthening the Civil Service and Governance of LGUs (TA)
  • Bureaucratic Reforms
  • Local Government Financing and budget Reform SDP
  • Strengthening the Civil Service and Governance of LGUs (TA)
  • Harmonization and Managing for Development Results (TA)
  • Support for Health Sector Reform (TA)
  • Agenda 2: EDUCATION FOR ALL
  • Education
  • Agenda 3: AUTOMATED ELECTIONS
  • National Harmony: Automated Elections
  • Agenda 4: TRANSPORTATION AND DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE
  • Trade and Investment
  •  
  • Infrastructure
  • Rural Roads Development
  • Agenda 5: TERMINATE HOSTILITIES
  • National Harmony: The Peace Process
  • Basic Need: Peace and Order
  • Support to the Mindanao Peace Process
  • Rule of Law
  • Governance (Judicial and Justice System Reform) SDP
  • Agenda 6: HEAL WOUNDS OF EDSA 1,2,3
  • National Harmony: Healing the Wounds of EDSA
  • Agenda 7: ELECTRICITY AND WATER FOR ALL
  • Infrastructure
  • Energy Independence
  • Angat Water Utilization and Aqueduct Improvement
  • Power Sector Reforms
  • Responding to Basic Needs of the Poor
  • Power Sector Development Program
  • Agenda 8: OPPORTUNITIES FOR 10 MILLION JOBS
  • Trade and Investment
  • Agribusiness
  • Financial Markets Regulation and Reform TA
  • Strategy for Development of Upland Communities in Southern Philippines
  • Strategy for Sustainable Aquaculture Development for Poverty Reduction
  • Financial Sector
  • Labor
  • Responding to the Basic Needs of the Poor
  • SME Development Support
  • Microfinance Development Program
  • Strategy for Development of Upland Communities in Southern Philippines
  • Strategy for Sustainable Aquaculture Development for Poverty Reduction
  • Integrated Coastal Resources Management
  • Irrigation Rehabilitation (TA)
  • Science and Technology
  •  
    Agenda 9: DECONGEST METRO MANILA
  • Infrastructure
  •  
  • Responding to the Basic Needs of the Poor
  • Metro Manila Urban Services for the Poor
  • Metro Manila Urban Services for the Poor (TA)
  • Agenda 10: DEVELOP SUBIC-CLARK AS LOGISTICS HUB
  • Trade and Investment
  • Infrastructure
  •  
    Source: Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan, 2004-2010.
      financing on the Government budget. The guiding principle in both programming and implementation has been to move beyond coordination to cooperation to optimize delivery of existing programs and achieve a multiplier effect by combining resources.32 ADB leads in policy dialogue for the power sector and capital market reforms, while the World Bank leads in areas such as public sector management reforms and rural electrification. JBIC cofinancing is being explored for the power sector, with KfW in urban development projects, with the OPEC Fund in water supply, and AusAID in education, among others. ADB has co-led, with JBIC and the World Bank, harmonization of procurement and financial management policies and procedures in the Philippines, which is a strong supporter of the effort to reduce transactions costs of dealing with development partners, and is a pilot for country-level harmonization under the global harmonization effort. A proposed TA on Harmonization and Management for Development Results will focus on financial management, audit, gender, environment assessment, resettlement, and procurement. ADB leads and participates in development partner working groups, including those under the Consultative Group Framework and of UN agencies, covering Mindanao, governance, SMEs, anticorruption, decentralization, LGU benchmarking, microfinance, and health. ADB and other partners supported World Bank’s Development Innovative Marketplace for the Philippines, which encouraged solutions to poverty reduction by civil society. ADB, UNDP, and the World Bank formed the JNA Secretariat to conduct a JNA to identify priority activities for conflict-affected communities in support of the peace process with the Government and MILF (Appendix 7 presents a matrix of development partner cooperation).

    1. There is growing consensus among development partners and the Government of the benefits of harmonized policies and procedures. ADB and World Bank are working with the Government on a harmonized framework for assistance, including common approaches to economic and fiscal analysis, procurement, and results frameworks. The Government, ADB and the World Bank are also seeking to identify a common set of indicators to be used in monitoring the assistance programs and progress towards outcomes. A common framework for outcomes and indicators would reinforce the fundamental alignment of development assistance with country-driven strategies. This synergy among the development partners, but not necessarily identical approaches, allows each to utilize its comparative advantage to help optimize development assistance and progress towards development outcomes.

    F. Managing for Development Results

    1. The Government of the Philippines has played a leading role in the multilateral dialogues to accelerate the global reform agenda for Harmonization and Development Effectiveness, including serving on the drafting committee for the recent Paris Declaration. The Government has endorsed results-based management and is incorporating a results-based framework into its development planning, project implementation, and monitoring, of development impact. ADB’s CSP complements this with its parallel framework. To facilitate the flow of new ODA support for the fiscal responsibility agenda, during the 2005 Philippine Development Forum the Government agreed with development partners and local stakeholders to hold regular joint performance reviews of progress toward major benchmarks for fiscal consolidation, especially revenue mobilization and deficit reduction. The 3-year CSP framework departs from the approach appropriate for a longer-term CSP. Within its shorter time frame, the 3-year CSP framework looks to substantive and measurable results that improve the fiscal outlook and investment climate, with a view to allowing resumption of more normal operations to promote broad-based and inclusive economic development. For the 3-year CSP, the quantitative results focus on fiscal consolidation, as indicated for example by improvement in the expected deficit/GDP ratio. The results framework is designed as a management tool to guide ADB operations (Figure 4); detailed activities are provided in Appendix 8.
    2. There are several other salient aspects of the CSP results framework. First, there is no hierarchy or annual timing for fully processing the projects in the pipeline. For example, the timing of Board consideration for policy-based operations is dependent on the results of fiscal consolidation progress, as measured by the expected reduction in the deficit/GDP ratio, and progress and content of sector reform agendas. Second, the CSP results framework is not based on annual lending levels achieved, but on the qualitative process of continuous engagement with stakeholders, and quantitative progress on reducing the fiscal deficit. This allows ADB to be flexible in its response. Once significant progress has been achieved in improving the fiscal outlook, the CSP will be replaced with a medium-term, fully outcomeoriented CSP. Third, actions to achieve the expected reduction in the deficit/GDP ratio will precede ADB lending operations, rather than actual results of the actions. The complex political economy of the Philippines does not enable a firm timetable for the delivery of the actions for fiscal consolidation, either tax measures needing legislative action by Congress or decisions by independent regulatory agencies on such things as user charges. Efforts by the administration to increase tax collection efficiency, reduce corruption in revenue agencies, cap borrowing by GOCCs, increase consumer tariffs and service fees, and reduce public procurement costs will take time to take hold.
    3. During the CSP period, any near-term measurable improvements in key social indicators, poverty reduction, or progress in the MDGs is unlikely given the limited public investment resources available. Although the economy has performed well, it remains subject to shocks. The private sector continues to grow, but has not produced jobs commensurate with that growth. No real progress on the longer-term outcomes or MDG’s can be expected in the absence of an improved fiscal outlook and investment climate. Immediate progress on these reforms will cement the cornerstone upon which both public and private investment can be mobilized, jobs created, infrastructure built, and essential services delivered to the poor.
    4. While ongoing projects have experienced delays due to budget constraints, they are still expected to support the longer-term development outcomes. Maintaining the gains achieved in portfolio management through constant project monitoring and restructuring will be essential to the achievement of development results in the near-term from this ADB-assisted operations. Continued improvement in the implementation of ongoing projects will support ADB's contribution to development outcomes over the next 4–5 years.

    1. ADB will not be involved in areas of low priority, even when there is high probability of successful outcomes since this does not involve activities for relevant development impact.
    2. ADB. 2003. Development of Poor Urban Communities. Approved on 18 December 2003 for $32.3 million.
    3. ADB. 2005. Regional Strategy and Program for Southeast Asia [under preparation].
    4. The National Government (NG) has initiated measures to rationalize its support to LGUs. In line with its decentralization policy for devolved activities, the NG will no longer provide grants to LGUs which will be encouraged to improve their internal revenue generation. The NG would revisit the role of NG grants to LGUs in the context of the MTPDP, which focuses on the identification of areas where well targeted and performance based matching grants may be provided by the NG to LGUs. The NG has also established MFC as an innovative measure to alleviate strain of local government financing on the NG budget and provide alternative source of funds for LGUs, particularly those that have limited access to private financial markets.
    5. ADB. 2005. Philippines: Private Sector Assessment.
    6. Board Information Paper, November 2004. Philippines: Update On the Current Situation and ADB’s Work Program.
    7. The World Bank. May 2005. Country Assistance Strategy.
    8. Such new modalities are proposed for the Board consideration under the two papers of the Innovative and Efficiency Initiative: Pilot Financing Instruments and Modalities (R-130-05). ADB. May 2005, and the Cost Sharing and Eligibility for Expenditures for ADB Financing: A New Approach
    9. The National Government (NG) has initiated measures to rationalize its support to LGUs. In line with its decentralization policy for devolved activities, the NG will no longer provide grants to LGUs which will be encouraged to improve their internal revenue generation. The NG would revisit the role of NG grants to LGUs in the context of the MTPDP, which focuses on the identification of areas where well targeted and performance based matching grants may be provided by the NG to LGUs. The NG has also established MFC as an innovative measure to alleviate strain of local government financing on the NG budget and provide alternative source of funds for LGUs, particularly those that have limited access to private financial markets.
    10. The World Bank's NPSOs provide financial support for an agency’s procurement and public expenditure reforms. They cover a time-slice of an agency’s budget, based on an assessment of such things as the investment program, efficiency of recurrent expenditures, and budget control mechanisms.
    11. PPTA-4344-PHI: Intermodal Transport Development, for $1 million, approved on 31 May 2004.
    12. For example: innovative agreements with Germany’s Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit and UN Habitat for the proposed Development of Poor Urban Communities Project (2003); development partner collaboration to help implement the Supreme Court’s Action Plan for Judicial Reform.


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