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Table of Contents
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I. Current Development Trends and Issues
II. The Government's Development Strategy
III. ADB's Development Experience
IV. ADB's Strategy
>>V. ADB's Assistance Program
VI. Risks and Performance Monitoring and Evaluation
Country Strategy and Program Update 2007-2010: Viet Nam, Socialist Republic of

V. ADB's Assistance Program

A. Overall Assistance Level

110. The country-specific ADF allocations have been derived on the basis of the results of the 2005 country performance assessment (CPA) (Appendix 4), using the performance-based allocation formula. The preliminary ADF allocation for Viet Nam for 2007–2008, based on the 2005 CPA, has been set at $599 million. The ADF assistance program for 2009 is tentative, with actual ADF assistance levels subject to the 2007 CPA and the outcome of the discussions on the next ADF replenishments.

111. As a group-B1 country, Viet Nam is eligible for a blend of ADF and OCR lending. Thus, OCR resources are a potential additional source of funding for high-priority development projects that generate sufficient financial returns to repay loans. Given that Viet Nam still has limited experience in using OCR assistance for projects (one each in 2004 and 2005) actual levels of OCR lending will be determined by country needs, the availability of well-designed projects, and the country’s debt-sustaining capacity.

112. ADB will progressively explore the possibility of a range of new financial products and modalities, where appropriate, including sub-sovereign lending to city/provincial governments, and providing long-term capital to state-owned general corporations that are economically and financially viable. Mobilizing domestic private investment and attracting new FDI will be crucial to achieving the necessary investment levels. ADB will proactively employ its existing and new financial instruments, including OCR, loan guarantees, risk insurance, trade facilitation, and equity fund investments, to support this process. ADB will provide additional resources for private sector operations’ investments.

113. ADB will finance a maximum of 90% of overall project costs (on a portfolio basis) during CSP implementation. This differs from the previous CSP (2002-2005) where ADB financing was limited to a maximum of 75% (on an individual project basis). The cost-sharing arrangements were changed in response to a Government request to better harmonize ADB practices with other development partners’ procedures54 in line with the Hanoi Core Statement. The change is also expected to:

  • facilitate timely implementation of ADB-assisted projects
  • free up limited Government resources for other priority projects such as the Government-financed targeted poverty reduction programs (Appendix 5)
114. Analysis of Government planning processes and public financial management systems provides compelling evidence of the strong Government ownership of ADB and other ODA assisted projects that are directly integrated into the SEDP. The broad-based consultations with key stakeholders (subnational authorities, private sector, civil society, and development partners) during the SEDP formulation illustrate the sustained efforts to build national ownership of the development agenda. Thus, the potential risk of a decline in national ownership of ADBfinanced projects is considered minimal.

B. ADB Assistance for the Strategic Priorities

115. The public sector lending program for 2007-2009 consists of 18 ADF- and 9 OCRfinanced national projects, 2 blend (ADF and OCR) projects amounting to about $3 billion, plus 7 GMS projects involving Viet Nam, for about $970 million. Private sector operations will finance additional projects where feasible. The TA program for the same period comprises advisory and project preparatory TA, amounting to about $24.4 million including $5.3 million of cofinancing. The TA program will be augmented, where possible, through ADB-administered trust funds and cofinancing from other ODA partners (Appendix 1, Table A1.10). ADB’s economic and sector work program will address policy reform, capacity building, and institutional strengthening issues related to CSP implementation, including private sector development and social and economic issues related to the rural–urban transition.

1. Business-Led, Pro-Poor Economic Growth

a. Infrastructure Development

116. The SEDP emphasizes the role of infrastructure in increasing national competitiveness and attracting the business investment needed to sustain strong economic growth and poverty reduction. It also recognizes the benefits of international and regional integration, and the need to develop infrastructure to increase access.55 Regional trade, and movements of goods and people, will increase rapidly with the development of regional infrastructure linked to national infrastructure development. Viet Nam is expected to play an increasing role in providing:
  • seaport access to the Lao PDR and parts of southern PRC
  • power transmission links with the PRC, the Lao PDR, and Cambodia
ADB will continue to play a major role in Viet Nam’s infrastructure development together with other ODA partners such as JBIC and the World Bank. ADB’s assistance in reducing infrastructure bottlenecks will focus on transport and energy.

117. Transport. For an expanding economy like Viet Nam with fast regional integration, it has a relatively inefficient and expensive transport system. ADB aims to help the Government improve the transport investment program and sector efficiency and reduce transport costs. This will include developing sections of priority GMS transport corridors. Potential opportunities for ADB’s private sector operations will include the development of urban mass-transit system using a public–private partnership framework. As the Ministry of Transport and the Viet Nam Road Administration require substantial investments and institutional support over the next 10 years, ADB aims to help strengthen institutional capacity. Transport projects will include measures to help the Government address governance, environment, social, and road safety issues as appropriate.

118. In line with the SEDP, ADB will pursue a three-pronged investment program in the sector. The program will take into account institutional capacity enhancement aspects as necessary. The first prong supports investment projects to reduce critical transport bottlenecks hampering economic growth in the main development centers. Projects will include investments in urban transport and priority expressway and railway facilities to facilitate the safe and efficient movement of goods and people around, through, and between national centers of major economic activity. These revenue-generating projects could be funded through a blend of ADF and OCR, or straight OCR loans. Private sector participation will be encouraged as an important option to help overcome resource constraints. The second prong addresses social equity, using ADF funds to help develop provincial and district roads. This supports the SEDP objective of developing a regionally integrated infrastructure system. The third prong complements the first two by bringing regional dimensions to the development of the transport network in terms of connectivity, including multimodal transport modes and competitiveness (e.g., the Kunming–Hai Phong transport corridor).

119. Energy. Viet Nam needs to double its existing power generation capacity from 12,932 MW to 26,209 MW during SEDP period. ADB aims to support the Government’s energy sector development strategy to efficiently and rationally supply affordable, reliable, and quality electricity to meet rapidly growing demand.56 In particular, ADB will support efforts to:
  • establish competitive energy markets
  • diversify the sources of investments
  • develop new and renewable energy sources, especially in remote and mountainous areas
  • promote trading of energy/electricity with neighboring countries
  • improve energy efficiency and conservation
  • promote environmental sustainability
Power sector investment needs are large and will require coordinated actions by public and private sector investors. Development partners are expected to play a key role in financing public sector investments.

120. ADB plans to help finance environmentally sustainable and energy-efficient power generation and high-voltage transmission lines linking Viet Nam with other GMS countries. Several power generation projects are under preparation.57 Support will be provided to develop regional power trading, especially imports from neighboring countries, to meet expected power shortages to 2010. GMS transmission interconnections (with the Lao PDR and Guangxi province, PRC) are being prepared with ADB support to help meet growing electricity demand. The close coordination needed with power utilities in neighboring countries will be achieved through the GMS Power Trade Operating Agreement and the Regional Power Trade Coordinating Committee.

121. ADB aims to play a catalytic role in mobilizing private sector investments to thermal power generation, and to play a stronger role in leveraging investments from other financers. This will include providing (i) political risk and partial credit guarantees to private sector– financed projects; and (ii) export credit and other commercial financing guarantees to make financing terms more viable (e.g., extending tenures, mitigating risks) for private and public sector projects. ADB will also help public sector entities access international capital markets by providing advisory and risk-sharing instruments. Policy dialogue will be an integral part of the CSP to improve the social and environmental sustainability of Viet Nam’s power development program. The CSP includes support for sector-wide environment/social assessments of the power sector investment program. In line with the SEDP priority and ADB’s energy-efficiency initiatives, ADB plans to work with other partners (including CSOs) to develop the policy framework for renewable energy, increased energy efficiency, and access to the emerging CDM market.

122. Public–Private Partnerships in Infrastructure Development. The CSP includes measures to better integrate private sector considerations, to improve the policy and regulatory environment for private investment in infrastructure, and to maximize private capital in all relevant operational activities. Opportunities will be sought to deepen private sector participation in supplying physical and social infrastructure. The aim will be to increase employment and to free up scarce government capacity to focus on functions and services that cannot be provided by the private sector. ADB will support private sector operations in areas such as:
  • clean, efficient energy, power generation, and transmission
  • transport, including urban mass-transit systems
  • ports
  • construction materials.
Privately invested projects and public–private partnerships could combine synergies from ADB’s public and private sector operations.

b. Improving the Business Enabling Environment

123. Private Sector and SME Development. The CSP envisages sustained policy dialogue and financial support to ensure effective implementation of the UEL and the CIL and related implementing regulations. Such support will help:
  • further develop the national business registration system and streamline and simplify the business licensing system
  • reform private sector and or SME development policy and institutions
  • enhance financial disclosure by developing a simplified accounting system for SMEs
  • develop the institutional and policy framework needed to effectively use land and other assets to facilitate the private sector’s access to investment capital
124. The above goals will be achieved through ongoing and subsequent SME cluster programs. ADB will work closely with the Government and business community and actively seek opportunities to cooperate with other ODA partners. ADB will continue to be active in the SME working group (and co-chair the group as requested by the Government). The World Bank–led poverty reduction support credit program (which ADB continues cofinancing) also includes a focus on improving the business-enabling environment. Support for institutional reforms and policy formulation related to post-WTO adjustments resulting from international trade compliance may be provided where appropriate.

125. Corporate Governance and SOE Reform. A strategy focused on business development, economic integration, and private sector–led employment growth risks being undermined by high transaction costs caused by bureaucratic red tape and/or an unresponsive administrative system, which stifles national competitiveness. Reforms and institutional strengthening to ensure more efficient delivery of business-related public services are, therefore, an essential element of the CSP.

126. Public administration reforms are important to ensure that delivery of public services and infrastructure is cost-effective, and that social and environmental safeguards are effectively enforced. Given its wide range of implications at this stage of rapid growth and socioeconomic achievement, ADB’s support will be continued for the Government’s second cycle of the PAR (2007–2010)59 to improve accountability, participation, predictability, and transparency in public finance, administration, policy and planning in key counterpart agencies. Taking into account demand, support will be provided to improve the quality of civil service through training and retraining, policy coordination, and e-government; enhancing local governance and anticorruption initiatives; and establishing systems and developing capacity to monitor and evaluate the impact of public policies.

127. Further SOE reforms are needed to:
  • reduce barriers to private sector development
  • improve national economic efficiency
  • help reduce corruption and misuse of public resources
Expected outcomes of SOE reform are equitization of assets; increased transparency; better corporate governance; and strengthened accounting, reporting, and oversight systems. The SEDP reaffirms that all remaining SOEs must be corporatized under the UEL by 2010. This allows ADB to build on its initiatives to play a more prominent role in supporting SOE reform. Recognizing that SOE reform is a long-term process, ADB will consider extending a multi-tranche sector loan to support ongoing reforms. Potential interventions include:
  • providing long-term capital to the Government to facilitate SOE reform
  • reviewing criteria for SOE reform target-setting
  • assisting selected enterprises in restructuring, equitization, and listing
  • raising SOE corporate governance standards
128. Institutional Capacity Building. In addition to operational TA, ADB will continue to support implementation of three special initiatives:
  • making markets work better for the poor (M4P), co-funded by the Department for International Development of the United Kingdom (DFID)
  • public policy training (funded by the Japan Fund for Public Policy Training Program [JFPPTP])
  • the Phnom Penh Plan for Development Management (multi-donor funded) to provide government officials training in policy and planning needed to expand regional cooperation
The M4P studies cover a wide range of pro-poor market-related issues, including the operations of land and labor markets; links between markets and livelihoods; and the participation of the poor in agriculture value chains. Key crosscutting issues are also examined, such as the role of market institutions in supporting growth; the role of markets in the delivery of key services, including infrastructure; and the links between research and policy.

129. The next phase of the M4P activities will be closely aligned with the strategic pillars of this CSP, and will directly contribute to relevant projects by providing upstream support. The JFPPTP aims to build capacities in public policy formulation and implementation, including:
  • public policy training for mid-career and senior national and subnational government officials and leaders involved in formulating and implementing public policies
  • initiatives to eventually establish a center of excellence in public policy capacity building
The Phnom Penh Plan aims to develop the capacity of GMS senior officials to more effectively promote and implement regional cooperation initiatives with support to:
  • develop a core group of managers and leaders
  • provide relevant high-quality specialized training
  • collaborate with leading organizations and networks to share information, training resources, and experiences relating to regional development
c. Strengthening Financial Intermediation

130. Poor access to finance (debt and equity) is often cited as among the key obstacles to private sector and SME development. While much of the basic financial sector legal and institutional framework has been established, implementation is still limited and financial intermediation remains low. Factors that inhibit private sector access to finance include:
  • poor and uneven enforcement of the regulatory framework
  • prioritized lending to SOEs
  • restrictions on competition by foreign banks
  • high collateral requirements
  • limited project appraisal and business review capacity
  • lack of transparent financial information
Given ongoing assistance by the World Bank and many other ODA partners to develop the banking system, the focus of ADB efforts will be on:
  • supporting the institutional development of the nonbanking financial system
  • promoting increased domestic and foreign private investment in the financial sector, including investment funds


131. Nonbank Financial Sector Development. ADB is committed to long-term support to help develop the securities, insurance, and leasing subsectors. It will focus on:
  • strengthening relevant regulatory agencies
  • helping formulate long-term strategies for sector development
  • promoting key industry associations through training and interactions with the relevant Government ministries
Assistance will be provided to ensure effective functioning of the financial infrastructure and institutions established with ADB support, including follow-up to develop capacity to ensure effective enforcement of the securities law, establish the foundations for capital market development, and facilitate private sector development of leasing services.

d. Meeting the Growing Demand for Skilled Human Resources

132. The SEDP recognizes that education is fundamental to social and economic development, and aims to proactively invest in human development to equip the labor market with the skills and attitudes needed to compete economically and for civic success in a rapidly changing society. Quality education increases the earnings of people and the economic health of their communities. The country’s labor force will need to use new skills and technologies to compete in an increasingly integrated, competitive, industrialized, and urbanized world. With many other funding agencies active in primary education, the CSP envisages a continuing role for ADB in supporting secondary and vocational education. In addition to direct social benefits, such support is expected to have a positive impact on the investment climate and business development by helping meet the rapidly growing demand for skilled labor.

133. Secondary Education. ADB remains the principal ODA partner supporting secondary education, and will continue to help the Government achieve universal education and gender parity in secondary education. Past ADB support has been effective in fulfilling specific needs such as better-qualified teachers and improved school facilities, effective and equitable delivery to disadvantaged groups, and improving financial sustainability, but important gaps and challenges remain. ADB will continue to support secondary education via a range of modalities, including the sector development approach (e.g., the Secondary Education Sector Development Program). The focus of efforts will be on meeting the skills needed to sustain rapid growth, and promoting socially inclusive development to meet MDGs and VDGs.

134. Vocational Training. The quality and level of vocational training is an increasing bottleneck, with rising demand for skilled and semiskilled workers as the country industrializes. Increasing private sector participation in the development and practice of vocational training is important to increasing its relevance and quality. Thus, ADB will continue to work with the Government to remove barriers and actively encourage private sector participation in vocational and tertiary education. Where opportunities arise, ADB will use its private sector operations to support the business sector initiatives.

2. Social Equity and Balanced Development

a. Targeted Social Development and Poverty Reduction Programs

135. Socially inclusive development will be crucial to achieving poverty reduction goals and other VDGs. Significant pockets of entrenched poverty remain. Specifically targeted poverty reduction programs are therefore needed to reach these areas and address their particular development constraints. ADB has played a significant role in rural infrastructure and rural social service investments in Viet Nam. The CSP envisages continuing cooperation with the Government and other ODA partners to explore options for directly helping provinces improve their capacity for strategic socioeconomic planning, and to implement the new SEDP effectively at the provincial level. Two ongoing advisory TA projects (for three provinces in the Central Region, approved in 2005) have started this process. ADB will continue to support the Government’s targeted poverty reduction programs through poverty reduction support credit.

b. Health Systems for Disease Control

136. In addition to being important for social development and equity reasons, improvements in health outcomes will increase worker productivity. The Government plans to develop and strengthen provincial and district health care facilities, especially for preventive health and communicable disease control, over the next 5 years. Based on the Government’s Master Plan for Health System Development (2006–2010), ADB will coordinate with other development partners to support a phased program of health system development. At the subnational level, ADB and World Bank will support a health services improvement program, targeting populations and regions that are lagging in health indicators (women and children, and ethnic minority populations) and that have persistently poor access to and use of health services.

137. ADB will focus its support on addressing health issues in the following core areas:
  • health sector reform - improving sector governance and financing through support for a broad health sector modernization program, including attention to the increasing burden of noncommunicable diseases and how this can best be addressed in the public and private sectors
  • health care services for the vulnerable - reaching poor populations with essential services and health insurance to protect them from health shocks through subnational, performancebased programs, with special attention to improving services for women, children, and ethnic minorities
  • combating emerging and endemic communicable diseases including avian influenza, HIV/AIDS and other endemic diseases such as dengue fever
138. With trans-boundary communicable diseases a continuing concern, ADB, together with other development partners, will assist the Government as needed in the event of a pandemic. The social and economic threat presented by avian influenza has prompted ADB to help the Government implement its medium-term (2006–2010) avian influenza preparedness strategy. The strategy’s funding gap is estimated at $400 million for the human and animal health sectors. Building on its ongoing support of about $18 million for avian-related health sector activities, ADB will work closely with the Government, CSOs, and other development partners in this area.

3. Environmental Management

139. There are three broad areas for ADB to help improve environmental management. First, ADB will support improved natural resource management. Links between resource depletion and poverty will be addressed through rural livelihood improvement, biodiversity conservation, watershed management, and coastal resource management. Second, ADB will remain engaged in attempts to improve the urban environment, including financing, water supply, wastewater treatment, drainage, solid waste management, road safety, and mass transit. Third, ADB will support improvements in environmental standards through various measures, including carbon market initiatives.

a. Natural Resource Management

140. Resource Management Issues. As resource depletion and poverty are linked, management of natural resources (land, water, and coastal resources) and livelihood improvement programs will be improved. Support for integrated coastal zone management and improvement of rural infrastructure will reduce poverty, natural resource depletion, environmental degradation, and disaster risk. The CSP envisages a stronger focus on social inclusiveness (particularly in relation to ethnic minorities and to women’s needs). Assistance in these areas could be channeled through sector approaches that support national programs jointly with major development partners. Efforts will also be made to increase regional cooperation (under the GMS) to better manage shared resources, such as water (especially in the Red and Mekong river basins) and trans-boundary bio-conservation areas.

141. ADB aims to maximize the economic growth and poverty reduction potential where possible through private sector financing support for water sector infrastructure investments by targeting poor regions and incorporating institutional support and policy reforms in line with its water policy.60 ADB will help MONRE build its capacity for water management, river basin and land-use planning, and environmental management. Emphasis will be given to improving water service delivery, increasing the autonomy and accountability of service providers to meet the needs of the poor, and establishing sustainable operation and maintenance through appropriate levels of cost recovery and user participation. In accordance with ADB's disaster and emergency assistance policy,61 ADB operations will take into account disaster risk reduction measures to prepare for and avoid the worst impacts of natural disasters.

142. Rural Livelihoods. Efforts to improve rural livelihoods are directly linked to reducing pressure to exploit natural resources. Continued support will be provided for community-based livelihood projects and rural infrastructure expansion in poor districts, with an emphasis on identifying and addressing key constraints and on building links with more economically developed or resource-rich areas that could attract private investors. The primary aim will be to create and expand the range of farm and nonfarm income-generating activities. Investments will seek to reduce the vulnerability of rural communities to natural and other shocks, and to build small-scale infrastructure that has been selected and planned through participatory approaches to meet basic needs. NGOs play an active role in rural development, and the CSP anticipates close cooperation between NGOs and ADB in delivering support.

143. Rural Water Supply and Sanitation (RWSS). This is a particularly important concern as some 38% of the rural population still lacks access to piped drinking water. Available piped water often does not meet safety standards. Pollution from salinity intrusion, livestock waste, commercial waste, and agricultural chemicals is an increasing concern in some areas, and endangers people’s health. Estimates suggest that up to half the cases of infectious diseases in Viet Nam are related to poor water supply and sanitation problems. ADB plans to work with other development partners to improve RWSS using sector approaches, and to strengthen institutional capacity to improve RWSS.62 ADB will use its water financing program where appropriate.

144. Increase Agriculture Productivity. ADB will continue to support Government efforts to increase agriculture productivity and ensure more sustainable use of rural resources by:
  • continuing progress in agricultural sector and resource management policy and institutional reforms
  • improving the managerial capacity of national agricultural research institutes and restructuring them into autonomous entities
  • strengthening links between agricultural research and extension services
In line with MARD and SEDP priorities, ADB plans to support sustainable and equitable agricultural growth, and increase agriculture sector competitiveness through technical and financial support to improve the quality and safety of agricultural and agro-based products. ADB will continue to assist the GMS working group on agriculture to increase subregional trade and investment cooperation in agriculture.

b. Urban Development and Environment

145. The CSP will focus on targeted infrastructure investments in small and medium-sized towns in the central region and along GMS economic corridors, decentralized urban governance and capacity building, reforms for improved urban management and cost recovery of urban services, and environmental improvements. ADB’s support will include the comprehensive socioeconomic development of selected small and medium-sized cities such as Thanh Hoa to strengthen development links with their rural hinterlands, and to reduce environmental pressures on the large cities. Urban infrastructure also needs to be developed in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, especially in urban transport, where the Government is developing plans for rapid mass-transit systems.

146. ADB’s strategy for urban water supply and sanitation sector seeks to use the water financing program, which aims to:
  • support the rehabilitation, upgrading, and expansion of water supply and sanitation in urban centers to improve the investment environment
  • ensure equitable access to safe water supply and sanitation facilities and improve the health profile of the urban residents
  • encourage policy changes and institutional reforms at central and provincial levels to enable sustainable development
This will help the Government achieve its targeted outcomes specified in the SEDP and sector development strategies. Emphasis will also be placed on private sector and community participation in planning and management of all urban development and environment initiatives. All urban projects will seek to minimize resettlement, enhance women’s role in urban management and institutions, and apply affordable technical standards for infrastructure development.

4. Private Sector Operations

147. ADB’s Private Sector Operation Department, through its infrastructure and financial sector divisions, is committed to use its investment products (equity, debt, guarantees, and TA) to help Viet Nam improve, expand, and develop the private sector. In the infrastructure and financial sectors, ADB aims to balance its long-term strategy for market engagement and its ability to address and service market demands as they arise. ADB’s private sector operations investments must be commercially feasible, have development impacts, and be aligned with Viet Nam’s priorities as articulated in the SEDP.

148. ADB private sector operations will seek opportunities to work with private and public sector partners in power generation and transmission, transport, including urban mass-transit systems and ports. Potential investments are expected to comprise fully private projects and public–private partnerships, combining the value of private sector operations investments and other private sector partners with policy and institutional support from the Government and ADB’s public sector operations.

149. Options to support the equitization (i.e., partial privatization) and restructuring of stateowned commercial banks will be considered under the CSP. ADB’s private sector operations may make targeted investments and other interventions:
  • in structured finance, they resolve nonperforming loans, securitization, and other structured financing such as the financing of acquisitions
  • in investment funds, strategic objectives could include contributing to the growth and sustainability of Asia’s private equity industry, supporting institution-building and skills development, and acting as an active investor to help strengthen corporate governance and environmental standards
ADB private sector operations will also seek opportunities to work with banks, insurance companies, nonbank credit companies, leasing companies, exchanges, and depositaries.

C. External Funding Coordination and Partnership Arrangements

150. The Government and development partners (including NGOs) meet twice a year in the consultative group to review progress and issues related to socioeconomic development and ODA use. The 6-monthly meetings help coordinate overall ODA. More frequent partnership group meetings (on 22 key themes and sectors) help coordinate funding agencies and make government priorities and policies consistent. The effectiveness of the partnership groups is variable: strong government leadership of working groups has been important in developing effective partnerships. ADB plays a leading donor role in several working groups and will continue to actively participate in relevant groups and the consultative group process. The Government and its development partners have been working together to harmonize procedures, reduce administrative burdens, and enhance aid effectiveness. ADB actively participates in the five-banks initiative (with AFD, JBIC, KfW, and World Bank) to help resolve implementation issues, among others.

151. ADB carried out intensive consultations with major stakeholders, including government agencies, ODA partners, CSOs, and private sector representatives during CSP formulation. ADB aims to mobilize cofinancing from bilateral ODA partners, including AFD, KfW, Australia, Canada, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Parallel efforts will be made to mobilize resources from other ODA partners, including JBIC, the European Community and the World Bank. Opportunities for commercial cofinancing will be explored during the preparation of financially viable projects from the SEDP priority list.

D. Borrowing Capacity and Debt Sustainability Assessment

152. Viet Nam’s public sector financing requirements are large. Concessional ODA inflows will not be sufficient to cover the gap between public sector savings and expected investment needs. The Government will need to explore all possible financial resources, including tapping into foreign borrowing on commercial terms. A gradual increase in less-concessional borrowing is a natural progression for a country that is expected to soon join the ranks of lower middleincome countries. ADB’s OCR represents an attractive option to meet some financing requirements and also acts as a catalyst in attracting additional commercial financing. A recent joint OCR borrowing assessment64 of the Government and ADB indicated that the medium- to long-term investment gap would be about 3% to 6% of GDP.

153. International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank debt sustainability analysis suggests that the country’s external debt is manageable.65 External debt will be sustainable provided the terms of external financing or export growth do not deteriorate sharply. Public debt will be sustainable with further progress in banking and fiscal reforms. Contingent liabilities related to state-owned commercial banks reforms and uncertainties about revenues will require continued vigilance. The Government has indicated that its priority is to maximize use of concessional ODA resources where available, and to use OCR for important projects that are well prepared and generate sufficient financial returns to finance repayments.

E. Indicative Internal Resource Requirements

154. Effective and timely delivery and monitoring of this results-based CSP over the next 4 years will require some additional human resources. Some reallocation of human resources within ADB may be necessary, as Viet Nam operations expand to at least double the current volume of lending and non-lending over the next 4 years. Additional international and national staff will be needed in the VRM to closely coordinate the programming and the specific sector intervention and to oversee effective implementation of the expanding operations.



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