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Regions and Countries Regional Cooperation Greater Mekong Subregion Publications Proceedings of Ministerial, Forum, and Working Group Meetings Appendix 3-Summary of Discussions/ Comments on Long Term Power Demand and Supply Options By Country and Overall GMS
Summary of Discussions/ Comments on Long Term Power Demand and Supply Options By Country and Overall GMSCambodiaDemand Mr. Holtedahl presented important sector features such as highly fragmented systems centered on capital cities, predominance of diesel sources, high system losses, and plans for lower cost sources including import. Main assumptions included 5% income growth and 2.4% population growth, and reduced load factor and system losses. Forecast growth in supply requirements (in GWh) was 12.1% from 2000 to 2020. Mr. Sodavath (Cambodia) suggested use of lower system losses in the assumptions. Mr. Tun Lean (Cambodia) said the forecasts reflected gradual substitution from private to EDC generation. Mr. Patel (ADB) suggested that private generation be reflected. Mr. Hotte doubted the assumed load factor by 2020, which was lower than for most countries at present. Mr. Prutichai raised issues on coincident and peak demand related to domestic interconnection. Mr. Hotte asked whether load duration curve information is available. Mr. Hoda said that suppressed demand on one hand and resource constraints on the other, could make forecasts unrealistic. Cambodia accepted the forecast approach subject to review of assumptions. Supply Mr. Doorman noted that electricity prices were very high and the system was exposed to volatile world oil prices. Expansion candidates included hydro projects and gas turbines (gt)/ combined cycle gt. Expansion plans included plan interconnection of the systems. He listed the supply expansion projects and showed graphs reflecting demand, supply and reserve margins. He cited missing data on hydropower. Mr. Tun Lean suggested reducing oil imports in supply forecast. Mr. Tun Lean cited the JICA team study, which reported that the Japanese Government would consider Sihanoukville project (180 MW) if the project uses gas. The Cambodian Government should clarify officially the source of gas supply. Mr. Prutichai said it is not economical to use gas if power usage is low. Mr. Hoda added that gas supply options could only be in the plan beyond 2010, because the source is highly uncertain and development of gas infrastructure is time consuming. Mr. Prutichai said coal fired plants could be tapped, and these are competitive. Mr. Sodavath ruled out coal due to its environmental effects. Mr. Hotte suggested that the graph show the power source by type of plant rather than fuel used. ThailandDemand Mr. Holtedahl enumerated the important power sector features, which include present generation over capacity, electrification ratio of 82%, and load concentration in central region (75%), etc. He gave the demand forecast approach and main assumptions. The Thai economy was expected to grow 4.5% p.a. (2020) and population by .8%; meanwhile, systems losses were to go down from 11% to 9% and load factor from 74% to 73%. Supply requirements (GWh) were expected to grow 6.3% from 2000-2020. Mr. Prutichai questioned the attainability of assumed system losses and load factor. Mr. Chavalit observed declining annual elasticity of sales relative to GDP, and Mr. Holtedahl explained this could be a natural trend reflecting more efficient power use. Mr. Hotte suggested analysis of the differences in coincident peak loads between say Thailand and Viet Nam, which could factor in the extrapolation of demand. Mr. Yang (PRC) asked whether the elasticity of 1.3 or 1.7 is high; Mr. Hoteldahl replied that it depends on the structure of the economy. Supply Mr. Doorman showed a graph of installed capacity in Thailand, which was dominated by gas (63%). Expansion candidates, dominated by IPPs, consisted of gas, ccgt, hydro, etc. Projected capacity to 2020 showed gas even increase its dominance. Coal was introduced after 2010. He listed hydrological records and detailed hydro plants among missing important data needed for better forecasts. Mr. Hoda commented that in view of increased availability of natural gas from the Gulf of Thailand, imports from Myanmar, exploitation of Joint Development Area between Malaysia and Thailand, import of gas from Indonesia and the development of gas reserves offshore in Viet Nam, its impact on the power generation strategy in the GMS countries needs to be further investigated. Mr. Hoda further commented that if coal based generation was in the plan, the cost of transport from source to user should be examined closely. Mr. Prutichai agreed to this, and asked about the extent of gas use suggested by Norconsult. Mr. Doorman said gas, coal or hydro options, domestic or imported, are subject to political considerations that complicate calculations. Mr. Chavalit pointed out that domestic gas reserves are limited and Thailand should look to imports for energy sources. He outlined a number of agreements with Myanmar for energy imports, and reiterated earlier comments to include these in forecasts. Mr. Naim noted increasing import dependence in the forecast, which may be more costly. Mr. Doorman however noted that some sources, like Jinghong hydropower plant, are very competitive. More supply issues will be discussed with Thai representatives later. Lao PDRDemand Mr. Holtedahl mentioned important sector features, which included small domestic demand, growing power exchange with Thailand, high consumption growth (13% in the 1990s), and lowest tariffs in GMS. He also presented the approach and main assumptions for demand forecast, namely a 45% connection ratio in 2010, economic growth at 5% (2020), decline of system losses from 29% in 1996 to 13% in 2020 but increase in load factor from 59% to 63% for same period. Supply requirements were expected to grow 8.5% p.a. from 2000-2020. Mr. Hotte mentioned the planned creation of the Lao National Grid Co. (LNGC), which was important for the power sector review. Mr. Vinjar said this will be covered in the institutional review. Mr. Holtedahl commented that the Lao forecasts were based on the extent of hydropower development on which Lao PDR is dependent. Supply Mr. Doorman showed characteristics of Lao PDR's system, which included three principal supply areas and domestic hydro with export surplus. Expansion candidates included many hydro candidates, power offtake from export projects, and imports. He also showed a graph on demand, supply and reserve margins. Projected installed capacity to 2020 comprised mostly hydro. Reserve margins were set rather high due to seasonal capacity of hydro. Mr. Hotte noted that hydro plants are usually more reliable, but high reserve margins may be due to water availability, and stressed importance of hydrological studies in setting reserve margins. Mr. Hotte added that exports could be added to the total demand to be met by installed capacity of the Lao system. Mr. Chavalit noted Lao PDR's plans for lignite plants for selling power to Thailand, and these will be included in the report for forecasting purposes. Mr. Hotte expressed the opinion that Lao PDR may somewhat lose some potential benefits in its pursuit of small hydro projects (for domestic use), that are less efficient than larger ones used for export. Viet NamDemand Mr. Holtedahl showed important power sector features which included high growth in demand (13% p.a.), reliance on hydropower (over 50%), some power exchange with Lao PDR, and household consumption as main driver. About 70% of households have been electrified, and the rural electrification program targeted 76% of rural households by 2010. Assumptions included forecast GDP growth of 6.5% (by 2020), population growth of 1.2% by 2020, reduced system losses from 17% to 14% by 2020, and increased load factor (67% by 2020) with increasing industrial base. Supply requirements were forecast to grow 9.7% p.a. from 2000-2020. Mr. Anh Tuan (Viet Nam) provided the corrected figures on electrified households. Supply Mr. Doorman showed a graph of installed capacity, which was dominated by hydropower. Expansion candidates consisted of hydropower, domestic or imported coal, gas, and imports from Lao and Yunnan. Costs shown for coal were higher than in Thailand. Reserve margins were set high but expected to decline with more plants. For gas, Mr. Doorman showed decline in gas use due to improved plant efficiency (assuming no new gas plants). Missing data included firm capacity, environmental/ social impact of hydro projects, retirement plan, etc. Mr. Hoda questioned the assumed gas consumption, because of limited data on gas availability in Viet Nam. Mr. Anh Tuan said Petro Viet Nam confirmed capability to supply sufficient gas by 2020. This information would be included in the report. Mr. Daovong (Lao) asked why nuclear power was excluded (which was among Viet Nam's options), and Mr. Doorman said this was due to the controversies of this type of plant. Yunnan Province, PRCDemand Mr. Holtedahl showed important power sector features for Yunnan, which included large unexploited hydro and coal resources, high growth in demand (10% p.a.), low tariffs, some power exchange with Thailand and other PRC provinces, and industry as main driver. Assumptions included forecast GDP growth of 6% by 2020, population growth of 0.7% by 2020, reduced system losses from 12.5% to 11.5% by 2020, and reduced load factor (63% by 2020) due to reduced industry share. Supply requirements were forecast to grow 4.5% p.a. from 2000-2020, due to expected decline of industry with high energy content, plus increased energy efficiency. Mr. Yang (PRC) noted that Yunnan Province is currently modifying the PDP, and it expected growth rate higher than in the report, but this would not be ready before year-end. Mr. Kim suggested meeting separately with Yunnan representative and Norconsult to decide on the base case. Supply Mr. Doorman showed dominance of hydro (68%) as power source in Yunnan. Expansion candidates consisted of hydropower, with potential of 90,000 MW, and domestic coal (with low cost). Reserve margins were set high in first years, but with exports (made part of demand), expected reserve margins fell substantially. He noted the insufficiency of data on hydrology and data on plants not owned by YEPG, which would affect simulations on demand and supply for Yunnan. A proposal was to treat Yunnan as a power source for other GMS countries. Mr. Kim (ADB) requested separate meeting with Yunnan representatives to settle the data questions. Mr. Kim also suggested that comments on Myanmar projections by the other countries be sent to Norconsult and the Myanmar EGP members.
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