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Afghanistan's Reconstruction: Preliminary Needs Assessment Offers Initial View Of Costs And Programs

BRUSSELS, Thursday, December 20, 2001 – Initial estimates of what it will cost to begin the reconstruction of Afghanistan over the next two and a half years range from US$2 to $3 billion, according to an early version of a joint United Nations Development Programme-World Bank-Asian Development Bank preliminary needs assessment.

Quick-impact programs to meet short-term priority needs for Afghanistan could enable the enrollment of 1.5 million children in primary school in the next two years. Over the next six months, 100,000 food-for-work jobs could be created and water could be restored to 15,000 households on an emergency basis.

A team of about 36 staff from the three institutions has been working together on this preliminary needs assessment since the beginning of December. Progress on their work so far was shared in Brussels today with the donor steering group for assistance in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.

The two-day meeting to review this was convened to pave the way for the larger ministerial-level meeting in Japan at the end of January at which the completed preliminary needs assessment will be presented for donor pledging.

"We have consulted as widely as possible with Afghans, especially the many NGOs which gained valuable experience over many years and in really tough circumstances," said the World Bank's Philippe Dongier, Co-ordinator of the joint needs assessment team. "However, what we have come up with so far on the way to a preliminary needs assessment will only be worth anything if it rings true with the new Interim Administration, which takes office this weekend, and reflects priorities and needs that the majority of Afghans can relate to."

The needs assessment team focused on measures expected to bring rapid benefits to as many Afghans as possible. Part of the study outlines the scale of the challenge across a number of sectors. For example, one in four children die before the age of five; one in 12 women die in childbirth; primary school enrollment for girls is six percent; central and commercial banking has collapsed; only 6 percent of Afghans had access to electricity in 1993; only two in 1,000 have telephones; more than half of the primary road network is seriously deteriorated; and over seven million Afghans are vulnerable to severe food shortages.

On the positive side, the team noted that there are at least 20 NGOs working successfully in micro-finance, a strong tradition of community management of irrigation systems and a resilient entrepreneurial culture. They also highlighted the high levels of demand for education, the 17,000 existing health staff from NGOs, the private sector and civil service experience that could be mobilized, the vibrant informal economy focused on cross-border trade and the network of 48 municipal and two international airports, even though these were heavily damaged.

"What we can do is sit down with the new government and help it begin to think through some of the choices and best uses of those assets that do exist and urgent priorities for international assistance," said David Lockwood, Deputy Director of UNDP's Regional Bureau for Asia-Pacific. "Questions will include the size and organization of the civil service, local and district-level administration, how to scale up NGO programs and increase their accountability and role in the emerging development strategy and what strategic investments will stimulate the private sector so that it could become the primary vehicle for the country's reconstruction."

The progress report for the preliminary needs assessment lays out examples of possible high-priority programs. These include:

• mine action to maximize public safety and return land to productive use;
• a basic package of health services focused on reducing child and maternal mortality;
• an education program to enroll in school 1.2 to 1.5 million girls and boys;
• rapid increase of food production through irrigation and various agriculture programs;
• increased access to safe water;
• shelter to facilitate resettlement and the development of a national urban management capacity;
• emergency energy supply and repair while restoring the existing power system;
• employment generation, both urban and rural;
• support for local-level and community schemes in water supply, roads, education and health; and
• programs to create a conducive socio-economic environment for returning refugees.

"We look forward to presenting the fuller findings in Japan in January," said Yoshihiro Iwasaki, ADB's Director of Programs. "Of course we all recognize the critical importance of the ongoing humanitarian relief effort, especially over the winter months ahead of us all now. Because our preparatory work takes into account lessons from experiences in other post-conflict situations, we hope it will help Afghanistan move into the recovery and reconstruction phase in a smooth and effective manner."

To complete its work, the preliminary needs assessment team will begin consultations with the Interim Administration in Afghanistan early next month.

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