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Kazakhstan Economic Growth Remains Buoyant in 2005

ALMATY, KAZAKHSTAN (22 September 2004) - Kazakhstan's economic growth will remain buoyant in 2005, driven by the oil and gas sector, according to a major Asian Development Bank (ADB) report released today.

The Asian Development Outlook 2004 Update (ADO 2004 Update) issued by ADB today, is an update of the ADO 2004 issued in April. ADO is ADB's annual flagship economic publication analyzing and forecasting economic trends in the Asia-Pacific region.

The ADO Update predicts the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 9.5% in 2004 and 9.0% in 2005, after 9.2% growth in 2003.

The ADO Update kept the GDP growth outlook unchanged for 2004, but revised estimates downward to 9.0% for 2005.

World oil prices may ease somewhat over the closing months of 2004 and moderate further in 2005. The outlook for oil prices and a possible need to tighten financial policies to counter inflationary pressures led to the revision of the forecast for 2005.

The ADO Update says employment growth will continue with the diversification of the economy through industrial development. With its capital-intensive nature, industrial output growth will likely exceed the employment growth. Higher incomes resulting from industrial development are fueling domestic demand.

Exports and imports are expected to grow more rapidly than projected in April due to higher than expected world prices for key export commodities in 2004 and 2005, as well as implementation of large oil and gas investment projects.

The fiscal position is expected to remain strong, as growing oil revenues and strengthening tax administration will offset tax cuts. The budget deficit for 2004 is likely to total 0.5% of GDP, less than the Government's forecast of 1.9% of GDP.

The Asian Development Bank is dedicated to reducing poverty in the Asia and the Pacific region through pro-poor sustainable economic growth, social development, and good governance. Established in 1966, it is owned by 63 members - 45 from the region. In 2003, it approved loans and technical assistance worth US$6.1 billion and US$177 million, respectively.

Read the full report.

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