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Special Evaluation Study on Project Cost Estimates

ADB conducted a study to

  • determine the major causes of cost underruns and overruns of ADB projects


  • assess the contribution of each major factor to cost variations, particularly non-robust project cost estimations at loan appraisal


  • recommend ways to improve the reliability of cost estimates, and to streamline guidelines to address and share the risk of unpredictable changes in project costs.
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Contents

Executive Summary

  1. Introduction

  2. Objectives and Scope

    1. Study Objectives


    2. Scope


    3. Approach


    4. Limitations of the Study

  3. Literature Review

    1. Dam Projects


    2. Power Projects


    3. Health Projects


    4. Mineral Resource Projects

  4. Major Findings

    1. Study of Historical Data on Projects Cost Overruns and Underruns


    2. Study of 220 Projects Completed Between 1996 and 2002


    3. Survey of ADB Staff and Consultants


    4. Country-Level Reports and Case Studies


    5. Comparison with 2002 People's Republic of China Study Findings


    6. Study of Cost Underrun Impacts on Loan Cancellations

  5. Conclusion and Recommendations

    1. Summary Findings


    2. Conclusions


    3. Recommendations

Appendixes

  1. Analysis of Completed Projects with PCRs


  2. Analysis of a Sample of 30 PCRs Issued in 1980 and 1981


  3. Analysis of 220 PCRs Issued After 1998


  4. Analysis on Cost Escalation Factors, Exchange Rates, and Inflation


  5. Correlations Between Cost Variations and Some Project Characteristics


  6. Analysis of Cancellations of ADB Loans

Management Response
[ PDF: 721kb | 1 page ]

DEC Chair Summary
[ PDF: 21kb | 2 pages ]