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Water in the 21st Century : Elements of a Water Strategy

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Water for Food Production

A major problem to be resolved by 2025 is producing enough food for the anticipated population of 8 billion people. Economic development and changes in food preferences will exert strong demand for additional production and more varied food products. In 1998, the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) stated that in many parts of the world, water is becoming the single most important constraint to increased food production.

Even when good technical solutions appear to be at hand, they do not always produce the expected results; and the poorest, most vulnerable members of the community are among the worst affected. In Bangladesh, for example, the use of tubewells to raise shallow groundwater has been promoted by funding agencies to support intensive irrigation while also providing safe drinking water in rural areas. This gave a dramatic boost during the last three decades to agricultural production, bringing the prospect of food self-sufficiency within reach for the first time. However, the same water has recently been found to contain traces of naturally occurring arsenic. Arsenic buildup in the body initially manifests itself through the appearance of skin diseases, and prolonged ingestion damages internal organs, leading to cancer and death. About 20 million people are at risk. The Government, with the aid of nongovernment organizations (NGOs) and international agencies, has embarked on a nationwide program to define site-specific countermeasures, but this may not be adequate to avoid suffering and loss of life for people who cannot afford alternative water supplies.

IWMI notes in its draft strategic plan for 2000-2005 (October 1999) that "the potential for expanding irrigated area is extremely limited." The UN has estimated the potential area for new irrigation as 45 million hectares worldwide, which could provide up to 21 percent of the projected additional food needs. Increases in yield and cropping intensity are expected to provide the rest. However, erosion, waterlogging, and land degradation are reducing the area of irrigated land; and some of the most fertile and productive areas close to urban centers are being absorbed into urban sprawl. In Indonesia, about 20,000 hectares (ha) are lost each year to urban development on Java alone. About 20 percent of the world's 250 million ha of irrigated land are degraded to the point where crop yields are declining.

ADB's 1998 study of rural Asia noted that, from 1966 to 1988, the real cost of new irrigation schemes increased by more than 150 percent in South and Southeast Asia. Given the limited scope for expanding irrigation and the sharply increased cost of new irrigation schemes, the justification for investing in new irrigation grows steadily weaker. The future of irrigation lies mainly in improving the efficiency of present irrigation schemes in terms of operational performance and water use, supported by the introduction of mechanisms to ensure financial sustainability. Expansion of irrigation, where possible, will need to be justified on criteria of cost-effectiveness relative to other uses. Water-scarce regions need to plan for a future in which they may not be able to achieve food self-sufficiency.

In a world where food security can no longer be assured by an ever-expanding irrigation sector, what possibilities exist for increasing food production? The future of agriculture will increasingly be linked to careful use of marginal areas. Techniques for water harvesting and supplemental irrigation have shown great promise for increasing crop yields, and many scientists believe that rain-fed areas offer the greatest potential for increasing grain production in the future. More research will be needed, and both assistance and encouragement should be provided to poor farmers to help overcome their reluctance to invest time and scarce resources into inherently risky farming. Smallholder water management systems, where groups of farmers finance relatively small water capture and distribution infrastructure, can eliminate much of the insecurity of rain-fed agriculture without increasing stress on the available water resources. Crops with low water requirements should be selected, and technology employed to determine accurately the exact amounts of water needed at different stages of crop growth. Innovative techniques for precision irrigation will also help to increase the productivity of water-ensuring more crop per drop. ADB supports research in selecting appropriate crops for nonirrigated areas, for example, by providing regional technical assistance (approved in 1999) for collecting, conserving, and using indigenous vegetables.

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