Crisis Impact
People, Poverty, Vulnerability

Asia is currently affected by the world's most serious economic slowdown since the 1930s. The causes and impacts are different from the Asian financial crisis in 1997/1998 in several respects. Growth in the region may fall to 3.9% in 2009 from its peak of 9.5% in 2007 before it will improve slightly to an estimated 6.4% in 2010. This has major consequences on people, especially the poor and vulnerable.

Different from the 1997/1998 Asian financial crisis, the current economic slowdown affects not only the extreme poor (i.e. those living under the $1.25/day poverty line) but more so the vulnerable population living under the $2/day poverty line, including mostly educated youth in the export sectors (and backward industries and services). ADB estimates that the projected GDP decline in the region will result in 2009 with about 60 million additional $1.25/day poor and additional 80 million vulnerable people (those living under $2/day) in Asia and Pacific compared to a scenario when the high growth rates of 2007 would have continued. The respective figures for 2010 would be around 100 million more $1.25/day poor and 130 million more vulnerable people. The food price crisis of 2008, which is not yet really over in its structural dimension, may further aggravate the situation.

ADB, jointly with ASEAN*, ADBI and other development partners, organized a conference on 28-30 September 2009 to discuss the implications of the global economic slowdown on Asia and the Pacific, the poor and the vulnerable in particular. The conference was held in conjunction with the 3rd China-ASEAN Forum on Social Development and Poverty Reduction and the 4th ASEAN+3 High-Level Seminar on Poverty Reduction. Recommendations included ADB's support for inclusive growth in the context of the crisis, and for accelerating social development in the region. The recommendations will be further discussed in the next ASEAN Summit scheduled for the end of 2009.