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Current Knowledge about Future Impacts of Climate Change in Asia
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007)* indicates that projected impacts of climate change are generally adverse and in Asia, the effects are profound and widespread.
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.
Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by 2050s.
Coastal areas, especially heavily populated mega-delta regions in South, East, and Southeast Asia will be at great risk of flooding.
Crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries.
Disease impacts from endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.
Global economic damage from the negative impacts of climate change is placed by the insurance industry at hundreds of billions of dollars each year. The IPCC estimates that if atmospheric CO2 concentrations were to double from pre-industrial levels, "developing countries would suffer economic costs of 5-9 percent of GDP. These would severely hinder long-term global and regional efforts to create a more healthy, prosperous and sustainable world.
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