Report Warns on Climate Change Implications of Asia's Motorization
EVEN UNDER the most optimistic current scenarios for managing the expansion of road traffic in Asia, emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the transport sector will treble over the next 25 years, according to a new study backed by ADB. At the same time, local air pollution and congestion from transport will rise to levels that seriously hamper the ability to move people and goods in an effective manner, warns the report on "Energy Efficiency and Climate Change: Considerations for On-Road Transport in Asia." The study presents one of the first comprehensive analyses of the relationships between transport and climate change in Asia over the next 25 years, undertaking a comprehensive review of current and future greenhouse gas emissions from the region’s transport. All countries in emerging Asia currently have rather low levels of personal motorized transport (which in many cases comprises mostly motorcycles). But these levels are likely to increase drastically as incomes in these countries grow and the urban population expands. For example, the number of cars and SUVs in the People's Republic of China could grow by as much as 15 times the present level over the next 30 years – to more than 190 million vehicles. In India, the growth could be as much as 13 times. Correspondingly, carbon dioxide emissions from on-road transport can be expected to rise by 3.4 times for China and 5.8 times for India over the same period. The book says that a change in vision is needed for the transport sector that takes into account local air pollution, congestion, energy efficiency and climate change implications. "Progress toward reducing the growth of greenhouse gases from the transport sector will require partnerships and involvement of a wide range of stakeholders," says Bindu Lohani, Director General of ADB's Regional and Sustainable Development Department, in the Foreword. "The problems must be addressed holistically. This means changing existing travel behavior patterns and modifying urban development patterns to minimize the type, length, and frequency of trips that people need to take." A combination of accelerating incomes, urban growth, and expanding vehicle ownership, if left unchecked, runs the risk of severely constraining the future economic advancement of Asian cities and economies, the book warns. The book was prepared under the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities (CAI-Asia) with support from ADB and launched at the Better Air Quality meeting this week in Yogyakarta. About ADB | 
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