Turkmenistan
Improving the Statistical Methodology of the National Institute of State Statistics
and Information
(October 2002 - March 2004)
Issues
Until its independence in 1991, Turkmenistan benefited from economic and social
development achieved under the former Soviet Union. Although living standards
in general were not high, satisfaction of basic needs and access to social services
attained high levels. From the collapse of the Soviet system in 1991 until 1998,
the country experienced sharp economic decline. The Government however attempted
to ensure satisfactory living standards for the population by maintaining high
subsidies on basic goods and services. The economy started to recover in 1998,
due to stronger production of cotton, wheat, gas, and oil.
Comprehensive and nationally representative data on the standards of living
in Turkmenistan became available for the first time following the Turkmen living
standards survey (TLSS), implemented by TMH in 1998 with the assistance of the
World Bank. Since the 1998 TLSS was conducted, significant structural changes
have occurred in the economy of Turkmenistan. The existing sources of data,
although supplying useful information, do not provide a comprehensive and updated
profile of the standards of living in Turkmenistan. To assess the effects of
the recent structural changes on the household's standards of living, a new
living standards survey must be implemented.
Important points to be considered when implementing the second TLSS are the
need to ensure comparability with the 1998 survey, and to generate data at subnational
levels. Ideally, the data collection should be undertaken from February to April
2003, to ensure full comparability with the 1998 TLSS. In addition to data on
households' income and expenditure, the survey will have to provide relevant
information on access to, use of, and satisfaction with social services. Turkmenistan
maintains high levels of subsidies for basic goods and social services (free
water, gas, electricity, education and health, and almost free fuel and public
transportation). These subsidies will have to be properly accounted for in the
assessment of the standards of living.
The new TLSS will provide the necessary updated and comprehensive profile of
the conditions of living in Turkmenistan. However, due to its complexity, relatively
high cost, and low frequency of implementation (once every 5 years), this survey
is not an appropriate tool for subsequent regular monitoring of living standards.
A workable monitoring system—with data provided on an annual basis—must
be based on lighter and cost-effective surveys. Since 1935, TMH has been conducting
the FBS on a monthly basis. This survey, inherited from the Soviet system, collects
data on households' income and expenditure on a rotating sample of 1,350 households.
Such a huge effort of data collection could generate useful statistical information
for monitoring the standards of living of the population. However, the use of
these data is currently limited, and much of the information collected is not
analyzed.
Based on TMH's own assessment, FBS data is not fully reliable. A preoccupying
problem is the high rate of nonresponse (most better-off households refuse to
participate in the survey, causing a bias in the data). Thus, the survey is
of limited use for monitoring the standards of living. To make it more useful
and relevant, the sampling methodology and survey questionnaire must be assessed,
and the bias resulting from the rich households' lack of cooperation must be
properly measured. Although the TA will not support the regular implementation
of the FBS, it will provide advice and recommendations on its possible enhancement.
During implementation of the TA, particular attention will have to be paid
to strengthening the capacity of TMH in the specific areas where expertise is
lacking. Strong capacity already exists in data collection. Capacity building
will concentrate on developing additional expertise in sampling techniques,
data processing, and statistical analysis.
Purpose and Outputs
The goal of the TA is to provide policy makers with relevant and updated data,
by strengthening the capacity of TMH to generate reliable data and analytical
reports on the standards of living of the country's population. The two specific
objectives will be as follows. The first objective is to conduct a second TLSS
in 2003 for producing an updated comprehensive assessment of the standards of
living in the country. The production and dissemination of an updated socioeconomic
profile of the households by TMH is a key output expected from this activity.
The second objective is to advise TMH on the possible use of the FBS for monitoring
standards of living, based on an in-depth assessment of the sampling methodology
and questionnaire design. The output of this activity will be a set of technical
recommendations, with an estimate of the cost of their possible subsequent implementation
by TMH.
Contact
For more information, you may contact the TA officer:
Mr. Olivier Dupriez, Poverty Statistician
odupriez@adb.org
Economics and Statistics 
Top of page