Vehicle Emissions Reduction

Scope and objectives

1. Estimate the demand and supply potential of CNG and ULSD (50 ppm maximum sulfur content in diesel) as road transport fuels in Mumbai over a 10-year perspective (2000-2010)
2. Analyze the resultant emissions loading of CO, HC, NOx, and PM under alternative scenarios
3. Determine the cost of supplying the two fuels
4. Analyze the price build-up of these fuels to understand the financial implications
5. Suggest institutional arrangements for safe and speedy supply of CNG and prevent adulteration of ULSD in Mumbai

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Background

Mumbai is a rapidly expanding mega-city characterized by high levels of particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The annual average ambient concentration levels of PM have exceeded national ambient air quality standards at all monitoring sites in the city. Motor vehicles contribute significantly to the air pollution problem in Mumbai. Old diesel buses and 2-stroke, two and three wheeled vehicles are the primary source of PM emissions from this sector.

Internationally, clean fuels like compressed natural gas (CNG) and ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) with a maximum sulfur level of 50 ppm or 0.005% have been promoted to combat vehicular pollution from all kinds of gasoline and diesel vehicles. Used with appropriate post-combustion emissions control devices and engine technology, these fuels can significantly reduce PM and NOx emission levels.

CNG has already been introduced in Mumbai in a large number of taxis, and a few autorickshaws and buses. However, diesel still constitutes a large part of the total fuel demand in the transport sector. The present diesel supplied in the city contains 500 ppm sulfur (max).

This study was undertaken by the Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI), New Delhi for ADB as a part of the overall initiative to develop action plans for reducing vehicle emissions in Asia. It seeks to assess the potential benefits of using CNG and ULSD on a widespread scale in Mumbai.

Given the growing transport fuel demand, it is essential to

• understand the logistics and economics of supplying CNG and ULSD in Mumbai
• look at the principles of rational pricing policy to understand the price build-up
• ensure proper distribution of these cleaner fuels
• have effective institutional arrangements and regulatory mechanisms to ensure speedy delivery of CNG in vehicles and prevent adulteration of ULSD

The results and recommendations of this study would be relevant not only for other cities in India but also for other Asian cities.

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Methodology

• Setting up a Multi-Sectoral Advisory Group - TERI has set up an Advisory Group, which consists of representatives from government, the oil and gas industry, NGOs and academia. The Advisory Group will monitor and review the progress of the study, help strengthen the methodology, and ensure quality output and timely completion of the study. The Advisory Group will ensure that the recommendations are accepted by the stakeholders and are implemented successfully.
• Interviewing consumer groups - It is essential to get feedback on the perception of people regarding cleaner fuels, adulteration problems, speedy supply of CNG, safety and efficiency of CNG vehicles, and the impact of CNG pricing on the poor.
• Collating information from secondary sources - A small team has been set up to collect information for analyzing the demand for the two fuels (CNG and ULSD) and to estimate the cost of supplying these two fuels in the city from 2000 to 2010.
• CNG and ULSD demand-supply assessment - The information collected will be analyzed to determine parameters such as passenger and freight travel demand, modal split by technology and fuel, operating energy intensity, fuel demand by mode (1990-2010), extent of switch from one fuel to another, and the demand-supply balance of CNG and ULSD.
• Comparative analysis of the cost of CNG and ULSD supply in Mumbai - This would help determine the production, transportation and distribution costs to be expressed in (1) cost of fuel per liter and (2) cost of fuel per vehicle-km across different modes.
• Addressing issues of adulteration of ULSD - This will require the identifying adulteration problems that could arise given the current institutional arrangements and suggesting strategies to prevent these from occurring.

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Outputs

• Research paper on appropriate pricing of CNG and ULSD including fiscal and financial incentives necessary to promote the use and availability of "environmentally acceptable fuels" for transportation in Mumbai
• Recommendations on the institutional arrangements needed for the safe and speedy distribution of CNG and for the prevention of ULSD adulteration in Mumbai

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