Water

Water Champion: Salmah Zakaria
Adapting to Climate Change
October 2007

By Maria Christina Dueñas
Knowledge Management Officer

Ms. Salmah Zakaria is the Director General (DG) of the National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM). Among NAHRIM’s mandate is to undertake strategic research on the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of the country. Ms. Salmah was one of three specialists responsible for setting up the agency in 1995, and stayed with NAHRIM until 1999. After that, she moved back to her parent department, the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, where her exposure gave her a broader understanding of water resources management and prepared her for her current role as NAHRIM’s DG. As head of NAHRIM, Salmah pushed for the completion of the first climate projection study in the country, covering Peninsula Malaysia up to the year 2050. NAHRIM is currently extending the study to the East Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak. The agency is also working with local researchers to continuously improve its projections. NAHRIM also chairs the working group on Vulnerability and Adaptation in preparation for Malaysia’s 2nd National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to be completed by end of 2009. The deliberations of this working group are critical given Malaysia’s many vulnerabilities to climate change.

What climate change impacts does Malaysia foresee in the next 2-3 decades?

Malaysia is already vulnerable to extreme climate events such as typhoons, droughts, and floods. We expect climate change to exacerbate these vulnerabilities. Our projections show that by 2050, Malaysia’s going to be hotter with a temperature rise of up to 1.5°C. We also expect more rainfall extremes—intense rainfall in the wet period and a lack of rainfall in the dry period. This would lead to higher high flows, meaning more severe floods, and lower low flows, meaning longer droughts. Sea level is also expected to rise anywhere from 15 to 95 centimeters over a hundred-year period, threatening the increasing urban population in our coastal areas.

In terms of exact impacts on irrigated and rainfed agriculture, public water supply, hydropower generation, erosion and sedimentation of river basins and more, I’m afraid we still need more in-depth assessments to be able to answer that with confidence.

What factors contributed most to your current climate change risks?

Although our studies aren’t exhaustive yet, preliminary findings indicate that Malaysia could be a net carbon sink rather than emitter. This means that most of the climate changes we’re currently experiencing are likely due to the emissions from the more developed economies.

But that’s not to say that we’re blameless. Land use changes such as deforestation, followed by inconsiderate highland agricultural activities and rapid urbanization with scant regard for sound stormwater management practices, have already impacted on Malaysia’s hydrological regime. Just look at the increased storm runoff that leads to severe floods, the reduced river baseflows compounded with indiscriminate river pollution that lead to public water restrictions during droughts, or the erosion, sedimentation, and landslides experienced in Cameron Highlands, the Klang Valley and, just last December, in Johore state.

What challenges are critical in addressing adverse impacts of climate change?

We need to create awareness for public and policy makers to acknowledge that climate changes are real. They also need to accept that actions on adaptation to our vulnerabilities should be immediately put in place. We can do this by integrating the various sector policies and securing participation of all stakeholders.

Do you think Malaysia’s longstanding preoccupation with climate change has prepared it for the adverse impacts on water resources?

Since the early 1970s, from the first Earth Summit in Stockholm in 1972, Malaysia has considered climate change in its planning initiatives. But evidences of climate changes become clearer as scientific analyses improve, so we’re constantly assessing our priorities and strategies.

What measures has Malaysia undertaken to prepare for the impacts of climate changes on water?

We identified the energy sector as a major contributor of greenhouse gases. To meet the increasing demand for energy, yet reduce heavy dependence on oil and coal, the government identified hydropower and gas as primary alternatives. Through public awareness programs, we’re also promoting energy efficiency among industries, buildings, and the transport sector, as well as encouraging the public to recycle and use public transport. It’s really difficult to quantify improvements in public awareness over the years, but we can say that our efforts have escalated since the Stern Report¹ was released.

To preserve biodiversity and sinks for greenhouse gases, we maintain an effective forest management and conservation program. We’ve also undertaken a coastal vulnerability index study (CVI) that served as a basis for recommending proactive adaptive measures to mitigate the impact of sea level rise.

There is such a gloom and doom feeling when people discuss the impacts of climate change. Do you see any positive developments in the future?

Being gloomy and feeling doomed will not help much. The best way is to adopt a pragmatic perspective. For one, we have the duration of our lifetime to deliberate, discuss, plan, and strategize. Also, there will be business opportunities from the required adaptation and mitigation measures, which various knowledge or service groups can harness. And a positive development has already come out of all the gloom and doom projections—almost all countries now accept the reality of climate change and have begun to work together to address the adverse impacts.

What should any country planning to embark on adaptive measures against climate changes do first?

I would suggest working on a climate change projection using a regional hydroclimate model that could give data on temperature, rainfall, and stream flow at the scale of watersheds. These data can then be used to assess climate change impacts on the country’s vulnerable sectors, i.e. agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, coastal and marine resources, water resources, public health, and energy. Once you know how your country will be affected, then you can line up pragmatic adaptive and mitigating measures. Of course, you will need basic information, expertise, and funds to implement these measures.

What insights have you gleaned from your work to address the adverse impacts of climate change in Malaysia?

We are very vulnerable to extreme climate conditions like floods and droughts. With the warming of the surrounding seas, we are also susceptible to coral bleaching that will have considerable impacts on our coastal resources. Most of our settlements are along the coasts and riverines, and rising sea level could have a devastating impact on them.

Climate change is real. Despite all the adaptive and mitigation measures we’re undertaking, it is still not possible to prevent its impacts in the next 30 years. But, as the Stern report rightly says, the cost of adaptive and mitigation measures is just a fraction of what it would cost us if we don’t do anything. Inaction is no longer an option.