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The economic slowdown bottomed out last year. A spell of global financial turbulence caused capital outflows and pressure on the exchange rate, but strong policy measures stabilized the currency, rebuilt reserves, and narrowed the excessive current account deficit. Weaknesses remain, however, and include persistent inflation, fiscal imbalances, bottlenecks to investment, and inefficiencies that require structural reforms. Without a systemic resolution to these, growth is forecast to pick up modestly.
The government’s initial estimates peg the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) at 4.9% in Fiscal Year 2013 (ended 31 March 2014), slightly higher than the ADO Update 2013 forecast of 4.7%. The estimate could be a tad optimistic, as achieving it would require growth to be boosted to 5.5% in the fourth quarter of FY2013. The marginal pickup in headline GDP growth masks underlying weakness in the economy as it was due to stronger agriculture. Excluding agriculture, GDP growth slipped from 5.0% in FY2012 to 4.9% in FY2013.
The recovery of the monsoon in the season’s second half in 2012 and a good monsoon in 2013 helped agriculture to grow by 4.6% in FY2013, though growth moderated somewhat in the second half of the year. Food grain production is estimated to have increased by 2.4% in FY2013, reaching a record of 263.2 million tons.
After growing by a tepid 1.0% in FY2012, industry decelerated further to 0.7% in FY2013. While mining has been in the red for nearly 2 years because policy bottlenecks plaguing coal and natural gas have seen little resolution, the contraction in manufacturing output was a new low. Continuing contraction in the output of capital goods and consumer durables reflects very weak investment and consumer demand. Bottlenecks restricting fuel supplies have hampered electricity generation.
The industrial slowdown and weak recovery in advanced economies caused growth in services to drop below 7%.
|Selected Economic Indicators (%) - India||2014||2015|
Current account balance
(share of GDP)
Source: Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2014; ADB estimates.
The economic downdraft of recent years appears to have calmed, and GDP growth in FY2014 is expected to inch upward by 5.5% on improved performance in industry and services. In FY2015, economic growth is expected to pick up to 6.0%, as a speeding up in advanced economies bolsters external demand and government action opens some structural bottlenecks that have impeded industry and investment.
Source: ADB. 2014. Asian Development Outlook 2014. Manila.