Growth accelerated slightly to 7.5% in Tajikistan in 2012 as remittances hit record highs, but slightly slower growth is forecast for 2013 and 2014. Domestic income and investment remain low. Reforms promised to permit Tajikistan’s accession to the World Trade Organization will be important to improve the business climate, increase foreign investment, and reduce excessive reliance on remittances.

Sources: ADB estimates.

Economic developments

Tajikistan achieved robust growth of 7.5%, slightly above the 7.4% recorded in 2011, mainly reflecting strong domestic demand from record-high remittances, which equal about half of gross domestic product (GDP). Meanwhile, domestic income and investment remained critically low.

Economic prospects

The economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, as healthy remittance inflows will continue to support Tajikistan’s growth in 2013 and 2014, stimulating private consumption, imports, and budget revenues. More diversified industry and agriculture will result in more sustainable economic growth, which is forecast at 6.5% in 2013 and 6.0% in 2014. However, the economy remains vulnerable because of heavy dependence on remittances.

Although continuing growth is expected, several factors heighten uncertainty or limit growth prospects. The aluminum industry is likely to slow further as production facilities continue to deteriorate and power problems and input restrictions persist. Moreover, the volume of cotton and aluminum exports will remain sensitive to international prices.

Growth will also depend on four factors: projected growth in the Russian Federation; stability in regional trade and cargo transit; the amount of precipitation, which is essential for agriculture and hydroelectric generation; and political and social stability.

Source: ADB. 2013. Asian Development Outlook 2013. Manila.

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