Growth remained strong at 10.2% in 2013, reflecting high public investment and strong performance in all production sectors, and the current account surplus widened to about 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). Growth is projected to accelerate to 11.0% in 2014, as gas exports increase, and register 10.0% in 2015, while the current account surplus should average 2.0% of GDP during 2014-2015.

Economic performance

GDP growth in 2013 remained high at 10.2%, based on government reports, slightly below the 11.1% attained in 2012. Expansion was supported by strong performances in both the hydrocarbon economy and its non-hydrocarbon counterpart.

On the supply side, the government reported that all sectors expanded, with industry - accounting for about half of GDP - growing by 7.3% in 2013, versus 8.6% in 2012. Services rose by 13.9%, versus 14.7% in 2012, and agriculture expanded by 10%, versus 8%. Growth in industry reflected moderate expansion in hydrocarbons, electrical power, and chemicals, paired with a strong pickup in construction materials, textiles, food, and agro-industrial products.

On the demand side, economic growth was boosted by public investment and consumption. Capital investment in industrial and social infrastructure under the state-led Program of Socio-Economic Development, 2012-2016 grew by 7.1%, compared with 38% in 2012, and comprised 46.7% of GDP. Higher public outlays and rising real incomes spurred consumption growth.

Selected Economic Indicators (%) - Turkmenistan 2014 2015
GDP Growth 11.0 10.0
Inflation 6.7 6.2
Current Account Balance (share of GDP) 2.0 2.0

Source: ADB estimates.

Economic prospects

Growth is forecast to reach 11.0% in 2014 and register 10.0% in 2015, further buoying GDP per capita. This reflects continued public investment and growing hydrocarbon exports, particularly exports of gas to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which receives over half of Turkmenistan’s gas exports. Recent agreements with the PRC call for doubling Turkmen gas exports by 2020, using an expanded pipeline.

Source: ADB. 2014. Asian Development Outlook 2014. Manila.