Turkmenistan's growth remained robust at 11.1%, led by strong gas exports and high public spending on infrastructure, with rising imports limiting the current account surplus to 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). Even higher oil and gas production and exports are expected in 2013 and 2014, providing continued funding for the large public sector. However, growth is forecast to moderate to 9% in 2013 and 8% in 2014.

Sources: ADB estimates.

Economic performance

The economy grew by a strong 11.1%, a bit less than the 14.7% recorded in 2011. With growth averaging 11% since 2007, Turkmenistan was reclassified by the World Bank in July 2012 as an upper-middle income country.

On the demand side, strong gas exports and public investment in infrastructure were the main growth drivers.

On the supply side, the government reported all sectors growing in 2012. Industry contributed more than half of all growth, with the hydrocarbon subsector, which provides 75% of industrial output and 40% of GDP, growing by an estimated 19%.

Economic prospects

Growth is expected to slow somewhat, to 9% in 2013 and 8% in 2014. The drivers of growth will continue to be expansion in extractive industry and higher exports of gas and oil products. Rising earnings from hydrocarbon exports will support large public investments.

The government intends to expand hydrocarbon production. The expansion is expected to stimulate output in power generation, oil refining, and chemicals, while the government’s investment program should promote construction, transportation, and wholesale and retail trade. Government support for agriculture is expected to boost farm output and textile production, while support for private firms should promote agro-industrial processing.

Source: ADB. 2013. Asian Development Outlook 2013. Manila.

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