Uzbekistan's economy grew by 8.2% in 2012, nearly as quickly as in 2011, driven by strong performance in all production sectors, continuing public investment, and high remittances and public sector wage increases, which boosted private consumption. Growth is forecast to slow only slightly in 2013 and 2014, while the current account remains in surplus. A more sophisticated and diversified industrial and export base is needed to sustain growth and expand employment over the longer term.

Sources: ADB estimates.

Economic performance

Despite weaker external demand, the economy again performed strongly. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 8.2%, according to official data, driven by public investment and private consumption. The main supply-side contributors to growth were services, which grew by 10.4%, and industry including construction, which grew by 8.0%.

On the demand side, private consumption rose by 6.0%, as a result of higher public sector wages and pensions, expanded remittances, and increased domestic lending.

Public investment rose by 16.7%, improving on the 11.3% increase in 2011, as the government further expanded investment to support ongoing industrial modernization and infrastructure development.

Economic prospects

GDP growth is forecast at 7.5% in 2013 and 8.0% in 2014, driven by state-led investment and domestic consumption. Industry and services will continue to be the main supply-side drivers of economic growth. Industrial output will be supported by higher domestic lending and foreign investment, while services will be driven by higher domestic demand, especially from the public sector. Agriculture is projected to post healthy growth, albeit less than the 8-year high observed in 2012.

Source: ADB. 2013. Asian Development Outlook 2013. Manila.

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