Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update (March 2014) | Asian Development Bank

Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Update (March 2014)

Institutional Document | March 2014

The Bangladesh Quarterly Economic Updates provide analysis and data about the economy in Bangladesh. This issue provides macroeconomic updates on the first three quarters and forecast for the full fiscal year 2014.

Gross domestic product growth is expected to slow to 5.6% in FY2014, with remittances declining and export growth tapering during the remainder of the year because of fewer orders. Domestic demand was depressed in the first half of the year, as the prolonged political unrest ahead of the January elections lowered consumer and investor confidence. This is reflected in lower private credit growth, declining imports of consumer goods and capital machinery, and modest growth in the import of raw materials. Growth is expected to rebound to 6.2% in FY2015, aided by higher remittance and export growth, as growth prospects in the United States improve and the eurozone posts a mild recovery. The likely rise in consumer and investor confidence as the political situation stabilizes is expected to stimulate demand and strengthen growth momentum.

Highlights

  • GDP growth in FY2014 is expected to be lower at 5.6%.
  • Agriculture growth will be higher.
  • Industry growth will slow to 8.0% in FY2014 because of output lost to political unrest and weaker domestic demand.
  • Service sector growth will slip to 5.4% in FY2014 due to lost sales during pre-election unrest and slower industry activity.
  • Inflation is on the rise.
  • Revenue collection is lagging the target.
  • Private sector credit flows slowed due to weak business environment.

Contents 

  • Macroeconomic Developments
    • Highlights
    • Sector Performance and Economic Growth
    • Inflation
    • Fiscal Management
    • Monetary and Financial Developments
    • Balance of Payments
    • Exchange Rate
    • Capital Market