Economic Data: Southeast Asia, the People’s Republic of China and India

A new ADB-ADBI publication looks at how the economies of ASEAN, People’s Republic of China and India might fare by 2030.

  1. By 2030, the PPP GDP of ASEAN, PRC and India could quadruple and exceed that of the US and Europe combined.
  1. As of 2008, about 600 million people in ASEAN, PRC and India lived on or below $1.25 a day, By 2030, less than 1% of the population in ASEAN, PRC,and India will be living in extreme poverty ($1.25 a day or less).
  1. By 2030, the PRC is expected to be a high-income country with per capita income of about $26,000 (in PPP terms).
  1. By 2030 India and ASEAN will be close to high income economy status with per capita income of $11,000 and $12,000 respectively (in PPP terms).
  1. By 2030, the ACI region as a whole will comprise almost half of the middle class people of the world. The PRC will see a large expansion of its middle class—it will increase from about 16% of the population in 2010 to 83% in 2030.
  1. India’s middle class will also witness a phenomenal rise from 5% of the population in 2010 to 68% in 2030, whereas the share of ASEAN’s middle class population is expected to rise from 24% in 2010 to 65% in 2030.
  1. India’s growth rate is projected to accelerate and overtake that of the PRC between 2015 and 2020.
  1. ASEAN, PRC, and India’s share of world investment is projected to be close to 40% of the global total by 2030, with global consumption near 30%.
  1. On average, wages in ASEAN, PRC and India will rise 3-fold by 2030.
  1. Compared to 2007, ACI’s primary energy demand will double. Demand for electricity will increase almost 4-fold in India and 3-fold in the PRC and ASEAN by 2030.
  1. By 2030, CO2 emissions will increase 2.5 times—double the emissions of advanced economies.
  1. Annual water demand of the PRC and India is projected to increase by 61% and 58%, respectively, by 2030 compared to 2005. 
  1. ASEAN, PRC, and India’s infrastructure investment requirements for 2010 to 2020 are estimated at up to $7.6 trillion--93% of Asia’s total.
  1. Liberalization that leads to deeper regional or global economic integration could add as much as 5% –13% to income levels in ASEAN, PRC, and India. 
  1. Risks to 2030 prospects include higher commodities prices, trade protectionism, and pressure to sharply cut carbon emissions.
  1. Critical challenges and risks could undermine transformation. If food, energy, and productivity shocks were to occur together under adverse global political or economic developments, incomes would be one-third below the baseline in 2030, cutting the growth rate by 2 percentage points over the 2012 – 2030.
  1. Challenges to 2030 prospects include economic and social inequality, resources pressure, environmental and climate degradation, productivity stagnation, weak financial sector, governance reforms, lack of effective and strong national and regional institutions and lack of regional cooperation and integration.