The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2013 growth forecast for Cambodia is retained at 7.2%, as is its forecast for 2014, when the pace is expected to pick up to 7.5% as recovery gains traction in Europe and the United States. So far this year, most sectors have performed as projected in April. Exports of garments and footwear to the US and the European Union rose by 11.3% year on year to $2.3 billion in the first 6 months, and exports of milled rice doubled to $122 million in that period.
|Selected Economic Indicators (%) - Cambodia||2013||2014|
|ADO 2013||Update||ADO 2013||Update|
|Current Account Balance (share of GDP)||-11.1||-11.1||-10.1||-10.1|
Source: Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2013 Update; ADB estimates.
Construction has been buoyant, with bank credit for construction rising by 46% in June from a year earlier and construction project approvals up sharply to $1.9 billion in the first half.
Tourist arrivals reached 2.1 million in the first 6 months, up by 19.1% from the year-earlier period. The service sector as a whole is projected to grow by about 7% in 2013. Weather was generally favorable for agriculture in the first half and, assuming no severe droughts or floods over the rest of 2013, agricultural output is expected to increase by about 4%.
Inflation averaged 1.8% year on year in January-June, reflecting slight increases in food and fuel prices. Growth in credit to the private sector eased to 29.0% in June, from 34.1% in 2012. In light of unexpectedly low inflation so far, the year-average forecast for 2013 is trimmed to 2.5%. Forecasts for current account deficits are retained from April. Gross official reserves rose by 9.9% to $3.6 billion in the first half, enough to cover 4.1 months of imports of goods and services.