Nauru's growth forecast for Fiscal Year 2013 (ended 30 June 2013) is downgraded to 4.5% and for FY2014 to 6.0%. This reflects political upheaval early in the year, disruptions to phosphate exports, and troubles at the Regional Processing Centre (RPC) for asylum seekers attempting to enter Australia without authorization. Compared with FY2012, phosphate exports are estimated to have declined by around 15% in FY2013 because of the diversion of mining equipment for use in constructing the RPC, management changes in the Republic of Nauru Phosphate Corporation, and poor weather. Lower phosphate exports are expected to continue into FY2014 as phosphate reserves are exhausted.
|Selected Economic Indicators (%) - Nauru||2013||2014|
|ADO 2013||Update||ADO 2013||Update|
|Current Account Balance (share of GDP)||--||--||--||--|
Source: Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2013 Update; ADB estimates.
Previous growth forecasts assumed that the RPC would expand capacity to 1,500 inmates this year, but political instability in Nauru from February to June 2013 delayed the construction of additional RPC facilities. A riot in July at the RPC destroyed most of the center's infrastructure and will diminish the RPC's contribution to economic growth in FY2013. Currently, 574 asylum seekers are housed on Nauru, and two additional RPC sites are under construction.
The outlook for prices in Nauru is unchanged from the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2013, with inflation projected at 0.5% in FY2013 and 2.5% in FY2014.
Source: ADB. 2013. Asian Development Outlook 2013 Update. Manila.