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Asia will soon see a doubling in the number of its megacities -- urban areas with a population of over 10 million -- with an attendant rise in congestion, pollution, and crime.
But the good news is that, with proper management, the chilling prospect of a serious deterioration in quality of life could be averted.
This is the message of the theme chapter on Asian megacities in the 1996 Annual Report of the Asian Development Bank which was released today.
The Report notes that the continuing migration from rural to urban areas in Asia will expand the number of megacities from nine to 20 by the year 2025. It concedes that megacities are often plagued by environmental deterioration, inadequate housing, traffic jams, and social alienation. But the Report takes a positive approach, noting that megacities are also important to a country's economic development and can also provide residents with a satisfying quality of life. Properly managed, Asia’s megacities can also offer efficient business conditions and a better standard of services than in rural areas. In addition, they allow a variety of cultures to coexist and thrive, providing an enriching diversity of experience for all.
Over the past 30 years, the Asian urban population has nearly tripled from 400 million to 1.1 billion and there has been a corresponding increase in the level of urbanization. There has been a sharp rise in the number of megacities. Today, Asia has nine megacities - Beijing, Bombay, Calcutta, Jakarta, Osaka, Seoul, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Tokyo. Soon four more will be added -- Bangkok, Dhaka, Karachi, and Manila.
Megacities have both positive and negative features. They generate a higher-than-average proportion of the nation’s output of goods and services; are centers of innovation in science, the arts, and lifestyles; contain many of the cultural assets of the country; and offer some of the best opportunities for people to lead full and satisfying lives. Yet, they also suffer from water shortages, environmental pollution, traffic congestion, and proliferation of slums, crime, and social alienation.
Can the problems faced by Asia's megacities be solved to a significant degree? Can the quality of life be improved? How can adequate housing be provided when land costs are so high? Can megacities be beneficial to the environment as well as to the national economy? The report asks some tough questions and admits the solutions are far from easy.
In describing the common problems, the report highlights various approaches taken by Asia’s city governments in dealing with their megacities. For example, Jakarta and five adjoining local governments which form an extended metropolitan region - Jabotabek - drew up the Jabotabek Metropolitan Development Plan to guide the area’s future development. With a current population of 12 million people, expected to rise to about 25 million by the year 2025, Jabotabek experiences frequent flooding, overpumping of groundwater, increasing air pollution, and high-density slum areas with little infrastructure. The Jabotabek Plan addresses these problems, emphasizing strategic placement of major infrastructure, more environmentally sound east-west alignment for future development of the metropolitan area, and improved metropolitan institutions, particularly local governments. With the Plan, as many as 10-12 urban centers are emerging; without it, development would be chaotic.
In another example, Manila dealt with its inability to supply water and sewerage services to all of the city's residents by bringing in the private sector to provide such services. The Report notes this could be a model for large-scale water supply privatization in Asia.
In Bangkok, most household, commercial, and industrial wastewater is discharged into the stormwater drainage systems with little or no treatment. The Government is aiming to remedy this through an environmental law which defines the Bangkok metropolitan region as a Pollution Control Area. Within the area, it is proposed that industrial pollution be made illegal; industrial wastes be collected and treated, and, in some cases, industries be relocated.
The report notes that in nearly all cases, the gaps between demand and supply in Asia’s megacities are management related. In response, and based on experiences worldwide, there has been a shift in the government's role from being a service provider to a facilitator of services provided by others; a move toward decentralization and strengthening of local governments (such as in Jabotabek); and the provision of services such as water supply and public transportation through public-private partnerships (such as in Manila). In addition, there has been increased access to private capital through better financial management, improved regulation of markets, and enhanced cost recovery; and better development management through the phased provision of infrastructure within well thought-out strategic plans.
Can sufficient funds and cost recovery be mobilized to deliver adequate and sustainable quality of life? The Report estimates that $20 billion to 40 billion annually will be needed over the next decade to provide services at levels sufficient to sustain productivity. Transport and communications, energy, and water supply and sanitation will form the largest capital investment segments. The Report notes that it is difficult to predict what will happen if there are shortfalls in the financing of megacity growth and management.