Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update

Publication | October 2005

The Update features an overview of recent trends within the region and sets them in their global context. It also points to risks in the outlook and suggests appropriate responses. Recent economic trends and the outlook are reappraised and updated for selected countries.

The economies of developing Asia and the Pacific performed well in the first half of 2005. This Update expects the region's gross domestic product to grow at 6.6% over the full year, marginally up on the 6.5% projected in the Asian Development Outlook 2005 in April. Faster than anticipated growth in the People's Republic of China and a strong showing in South Asia nudged the full-year average up. But higher oil prices and other adverse developments, including a downswing in the global electronics cycle, as well as poor agricultural harvests, have softened growth in Southeast Asia. Central Asia and two net oil exporters in the Pacific have benefited from rising oil incomes.

For 2006, the Update retains April's projection for growth of 6.6%. Positive factors include the likelihood of a soft landing in the People's Republic of China, the consolidation of gains in South Asia, and an end to some of the temporary factors that restrained growth in Southeast Asia in 2005. Nevertheless, the Update cautions that high and still rising oil prices heighten uncertainty about prospects in 2006.

The Update features an overview of recent trends within the region and sets them in their global context. It also points to risks in the outlook and suggests appropriate responses. Recent economic trends and the outlook are reappraised and updated for selected countries. A major theme of the Update is the challenge presented by high oil prices, the main focus of Part 3. A key message that emerges is that higher oil prices may be here for some time, and that countries across developing Asia need to adjust to this possibility.

Contents 

  • Foreword, Acronyms and Abbreviations, Definitions
  • Part 1: Developing Asia and the world
    • Developing Asia and the world
    • Prospects for developing Asia, 2005 and 2006
    • Prospects for the world economy
    • Risks
    • Subregional trends and prospects
  • Part 2: Economic trends and prospects in developing Asia
  • Part 3: The challenge of higher oil price
    • Adjusting to higher oil prices: The challenge for developing Asia
    • Why are oil prices so high?
    • Why high oil prices matter
    • Policy responses to higher oil prices
  • Statistical appendix
    • Statistical notes and tables