Asian Development Outlook 2014 Supplement: Stable Growth Outlook for Developing Asia

Description

Developing Asia’s outlook remains on track despite slower-than-expected first quarter growth in the United States. The region is projected to grow steadily at 6.2% in 2014 and 6.4% in 2015, the same rates envisaged in Asian Development Outlook 2014. Slight downward revisions to GDP forecasts for Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific are balanced by upward adjustments for South Asia. Relatively stable oil prices and declining food prices are helping to keep inflation in check such that consumer prices in the region are now expected to rise more slowly in 2014 than previously projected.

Highlights

  • Developing Asia remains broadly on track to reach the growth forecasts published in Asian Development Outlook 2014. Despite slower-than-expected expansion in the United States in the first quarter of this year, this Supplement maintains the regional growth forecasts at 6.2% in 2014 and 6.4% in 2015.
  • Growth in the People’s Republic of China is moderating in line with earlier expectations and should achieve the forecast 7.5% in 2014 and 7.4% in 2015. East Asia as a whole is similarly paced to meet growth projections of 6.7% in both 2014 and 2015.
  • With parliamentary elections over, India is expected to pursue long-delayed reform. India’s growth forecast is maintained at 5.5% in fiscal year 2014 but upgraded to 6.3% in FY2015 as expected reform bears fruit. With this improved outlook for the largest economy in South Asia, expansion in the subregion is expected to reach 5.4% in 2014 and pick up to 6.1% in 2015.
  • Growth in Southeast Asia softened in the first half of 2014 largely because of country-specific factors in Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The outlook for the subregion’s five largest economies is revised down to 4.8% in 2014, dragging the subregional forecast to 4.7%, but should rebound in 2015 to 5.6%, or 5.4% across Southeast Asia.
  • Declining food prices and relatively stable oil prices are keeping developing Asia’s inflation in check at 3.5% in 2014 and 3.7% in 2015.

About the Asian Development Outlook

The Asian Development Outlook is ADB’s main economic forecasting product. It is published each April with an update published in September and brief supplements published in July and December.