Asian Development Outlook 2016: Asia's Potential Growth

Publication | March 2016

Growth is slowing in many developing countries in Asia as a result of the continued weak recovery in major industrial economies and softer growth prospects for the People’s Republic of China.

Modest recovery in Southeast Asia and sustained growth in India will partly offset continued moderation in the People’s Republic of China and the associated spillover into neighboring economies. Risks to the growth outlook tilt to the downside: future US interest rate hikes that may intensify global financial volatility; a sharper-than forecast growth slowdown in the People’s Republic of China that would hurt regional exports and growth; emerging producer price deflation that may undermine growth in some economies; tepid prices for oil and other commodities; and El Niño.

This edition of the ADO highlights the need to invigorate developing Asia’s potential growth, whose decline since its peak explains much of the region’s growth slowdown since the global financial crisis. To ensure a healthy future for potential growth, Asia must employ the full range of policy responses to augment labor supply, improve labor productivity, enhance institutional quality, and maintain macroeconomic stability.

About the Asian Development Outlook (ADO)

The annual Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides a comprehensive analysis of economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia.

Contents 

  • Foreword
  • Acknowledgments
  • Definitions
  • Abbreviations
  • Part 1 Rescuing growth in uncertain times
    • Slow going in a tough global environment
    • Spillover from the People’s Republic of China
    • Emergent producer price deflation
    • Annex: A challenging and uncertain global outlook
  • Part 2 Asia’s potential growth
    • Understanding the growth slowdown
    • Determinants of potential growth
    • A “new normal” for potential growth?
    • Policies to invigorate potential growth
  • Part 3 Economic trends and prospects in developing Asia
    • Central Asia
    • East Asia
    • South Asia
    • Southeast Asia
    • The Pacific
  • Statistical appendix