Asia's Changing Role in World Trade: Prospects for South-South Trade Growth to 2030

Date: July 2011
Type: Papers and Briefs
Subject:
Series: Economics Working Papers
ISSN: 1655-5252 (print)
Author: Anderson, Kym; Strutt, Anna

Description

This paper projects the world economy to 2030 to demonstrate the extent to which developing Asia's rapid economic growth is likely to further shift the global industrial center of gravity away from the North Atlantic to Asia, increase the importance of Asia in world trade, and boost South-South trade. In their core scenario, they project the share of South-South trade in global trade to double, from 13% to 26% - or to 29% if gross domestic product and capital growth in the North were to be one-sixth slower than in the core projection (or if ASEAN+6 opened up, or if all goods trade were to be freed globally). The South's share of world exports rises from 33% in 2004 to 55% in 2030 in their core projection, and to even more if slower growth in the North is assumed, or if global trade is liberalized.

Contents

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Modeling Methodology and 2004 Database
  • Core Projection of the Database to 2030
  • Alternative Projections to 2030
  • Trade Liberalization Scenarios
  • Caveats
  • Conclusions
  • Appendix
  • References