Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia

Date: October 2010
Type: Papers and Briefs
Subject:
Series: Economics Working Papers
ISSN: 1655-5252 (print)
Author: Horioka, Charles Yuji ; Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko

Description

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the domestic saving rate in developing Asia during 1966-2007 and find that the main determinants appear to be the aged dependency ratio, income levels, and level of financial development. We project future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia for 2011-2030 based on our estimation results, and find that the aging of the population will be the main determinant of future trends in domestic saving rates in developing Asia. However, we find that there will not necessarily be a sharp decline in saving rates in developing Asia as a whole, at least during the next 2 decades, inasmuch as there will be substantial variations across countries in the speed and timing of population aging.

Contents

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • A Survey of Previous Empirical Studies on the Determinants of Saving
  • Trends in Domestic Saving Rates in Developing Asia
  • Estimation Results Concerning the Determinants of
  • Domestic Saving Rates in Developing Asia
  • Projections of Domestic Saving Rates for 2011–2030 in Developing Asia
  • Summary and Conclusions
  • Appendix Tables
  • References