Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific (2013)

Publication | October 2013

This report attempts to identify policy, social, infrastructure, and technology issues that must be addressed to meet the future energy needs of members of ADB in Asia and the Pacific. Two cases of the projected energy demand and supply up to 2035 for ADB members in Asia and the Pacific are presented:

  • a business-as-usual (BAU) case, which reflects the impact of existing policies and current technology levels on future energy demand and energy choice and which assumes that current trends in the development of new and renewable energy sources will continue into the future; and
  • an alternative case that considers the potential for energy savings on both the demand and supply sides through the deployment of advanced and low-carbon technologies to increase energy security in the region.

For both outlook cases, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions generated and the investments required on the supply and demand sides were estimated.

Key findings and energy policy implications

Key findings focus the implications arising from the analysis focusing on energy security enhancement, the environment, energy efficiency, and financing energy projects. Some of the key findings include:

  • Demand for coal in Asia and the Pacific will increase by 52.8% from 2010 to 2035, reaching 3,516.3 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2035;
  • Oil demand in Asia and the Pacific is projected to increase by 1.9% yearly over the outlook period and reach 1,973.0 Mtoe by 2035, 59.3% higher than the 1,238.2 Mtoe in 2010;
  • Demand for natural gas is projected to increase at 3.9% per year, reaching 1,463.2 Mtoe in 2035, 2.6 times the 2010 level of 566.7 Mtoe;
  • Driven by economic and industrial development and higher living standards, electricity demand in Asia and the Pacific is projected to more than double between 2010 and 2035, reaching 16,169.2 terawatt-hours in 2035;
  • CO2 emissions in Asia and the Pacific as a whole will increase from 13,404.0 million tons of CO2 in 2010 to 22,112.6 million tons of CO2 in 2035 at a growth rate of 2.0% per year, slightly slower than the projected growth in energy demand of 2.1% per year; and
  • To meet energy demand in the BAU case, Asia and the Pacific as a whole will need a cumulative investment of about $11.7 trillion in the energy sector (2010-2035), from upstream energy extraction and production to midstream energy transformation and transportation to downstream energy distribution.

Contents 

  • Preface
  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • Energy Demand and Supply Outlook: Business-as-Usual Case
  • Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook: Business-as-Usual Case
  • Energy Demand and Supply Outlook: Alternative Case
  • Electricity Outlook
  • Carbon Dioxide Emissions Outlook
  • Energy Investment Outlook
  • Central and West Asia
  • East Asia
  • The Pacific
  • South Asia
  • Southeast Asia
  • Developed Group
  • Appendixes
  • General References