Impact of Population Aging on Asia's Future Growth

Date: October 2011
Type: Papers and Briefs
Series: Economics Working Papers
ISSN: 1655-5252 (print)
Author: Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho


This paper examines the quantitative impact of population aging on economic growth in 12 developing Asian economies that make up the bulk of the region's population and output. This document finds that the demographic dividend that contributed to growth is set to decline visibly in 2011–2030. In fact, the dividend will turn into a tax that reduces growth in the region's older countries.


  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Population Aging in Developing Asia: Trends and Prospects
  • Sources of Growth
  • The Impact of Demographic Change on Developing Asia’s Economic Growth
  • Projections of the Impact of Demographic Change
  • Quantitative Estimates of Past Demographic Dividends
  • Conclusions
  • References