ADB again lowered its forecasts for economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific, amid mounting challenges that include increased monetary tightening by central banks, fallout from the protracted Russian invasion of Ukraine, and recurrent COVID-19 lockdowns in the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
The region’s economy is expected to grow 4.3% this year, compared with the ADB projection in April of a 5.2% expansion. The growth forecast for next year has been lowered to 4.9% from 5.3%, while the region’s inflation forecast has been raised. Excluding the PRC, the rest of developing Asia is projected to grow by 5.3% in both 2022 and 2023.
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Inflation in developing Asia is on the rise. The average inflation rate in the region increased to 5.3% in July from 3.0% in January. Even so, price pressures in developing Asia remain more moderate than in advanced economies, including the US and the euro area, and most emerging economies. But the continued rise in inflation this year has pushed the regional rate 2.5 percentage points above the 2015–2019 prepandemic average, which suggests an increasing deviation from more normal price dynamics. The regional aggregate masks significant differences across subregions. In July, the Caucasus and Central Asia had the highest inflation rate, at 13.5%, followed by South Asia at 10.0%. Inflation in East Asia was just 3.0%.
Rising food and energy prices contributed to inflation increasing throughout the region. Global food and energy prices have been declining since April, but this has yet to translate into lower domestic prices.
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