ADB Raises Economic Growth Forecast for Developing Asia and the Pacific

Special Analysis: La Niña’s Effect on Commodity Prices

The likely return of La Niña could bring volatility to global commodity markets. Countries such as India (producing rice, wheat, and sugarcane), Indonesia and Malaysia (producing palm oil and rice), and Australia (producing barley and canola) are likely to experience substantial increases in agricultural output. This boost is expected to lower commodity prices and help alleviate inflation risks in these areas. Meanwhile, heavier and more frequent rainfall may disrupt the transport and extraction of key minerals in Southeast Asia. La Niña exacerbates the risk of flooding and landslides in Indonesia, where the mining of coal, copper, nickel, and bauxite is already frequently disrupted due to heavy seasonal rainfall. And in the energy sector, La Niña often leads to colder-than-average winter temperatures in North Asia, driving short-term increases in the demand for thermal coal and natural gas.