John Beirne, Vice-Chair of Research and Senior Research Fellow
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John Beirne
John Beirne was appointed Vice-Chair of Research and Senior Research Fellow at the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) in April 2022.
He joined ADBI as a Research Fellow in March 2019. He has over 20 years of experience as an economist in the public and private sectors. In his current role, he co-heads ADBI’s Research Department, leading research workstreams on macroeconomics, finance, and infrastructure. He is also co-managing editor of the ADBI Working Paper Series. He concurrently holds the position of Senior Economist at the European Central Bank (ECB), on leave since March 2019. Having spent over a decade at the ECB, his work focused mainly on international policy analysis and economic research on global financial markets, capital flows, and commodities. He also worked for around six years as an economic consultant with KPMG and senior economist with DTZ in Ireland and the United Kingdom (UK), and for three years as a part-time lecturer in economics at Brunel University in the UK.
His research focuses on international macroeconomics, financial economics, and applied econometrics. He has published numerous articles in peer-reviewed journals in economics and finance, and co-authored or coedited several ADBI books. He currently serves as an editorial board member of the Asian Development Review and Asian Economics Letters, and as Associate Editor of the Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking (the academic journal of Bank Indonesia). He presents his research regularly at international conferences and lectures at the University of Tokyo and Hitotsubashi University in Japan on topics related to financial globalization, monetary policy, and macro-financial risk. He is also a frequent commentator in the media on global macro issues, having interviewed with outlets such as Al Jazeera, Arirang, BBC, Bloomberg, China Daily, CNBC, Handelsblatt, The Japan Times, The Straits Times, and RTHK. He holds a PhD in Economics from Brunel University.
Fintech and COVID-19: Impacts, Challenges, and Policy Priorities for Asia
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digital technology adoption in the financial sector and impacted the role of financial technology firms in supporting households and businesses.
Harnessing Digitalization for Sustainable Economic Development: Insights for Asia
Digital transformation can raise the productive capacities of economies in Asia, helping to enhance trade, financial inclusion, and firm competitiveness.
COVID-19 Impacts and Policy Options: An Asian Perspective
COVID-19 economic recovery can be advanced by greater efforts to boost longer-term resilience and sustainability in Asia and the Pacific.
Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Digital Age
Policy makers need to be aware of the increasing prominence of the digital economy and digital finance and seek to better understand how continued digitalization will affect policies aimed at managing the economy.
Climate Change and Sovereign Risk
Governments must climate-proof their economies and public finances or potentially face an ever-worsening spiral of climate vulnerability and unsustainable debt burdens.
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Asia and Exposure to External Shocks
Exchange rate developments are important considerations for central banks in the sense that they can affect their core mandate of price stability.
Corporate Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission in Asia
Rising market power impairs the effective transmission of monetary policy.
Central Bank Asset Purchase Programs in Emerging Market Economies
Asset purchase programs have a statistically significant effect in compressing the bond spreads in most emerging market economies.
Risk-Off Shocks and Spillovers in Safe Havens
Policy makers should be vigilant to potential volatility in currency markets and ensure that appropriate countercyclical adjustment mechanisms are available.
Institutional Quality and Macrofinancial Resilience in Asia
National authorities and international financial institutions should work together to enhance the framework for measuring institutional quality.
Nonbank Finance and Monetary Policy Transmission in Asia
Excessive risk-taking by nonbanks could lead to systemic risk vulnerabilities in economic downturns.
When the United States and the People’s Republic of China Sneeze: International Real and Financial Spillovers in Asia
Emerging Asian economies are overall more susceptible to monetary policy shocks emanating from the People's Republic of China than those from the United States.
Local Currency Bond Markets, Foreign Investor Participation, and Capital Flow Volatility in Emerging Asia
Greater development of local currency bond markets helps to mitigate against capital flow volatility, while foreign investor participation has the opposite effect.
What Matters for Private Investment Financing in Renewable Energy Globally and in Asia?
Feed-in-tariffs have the greatest overall effect in Asia on driving private investment in renewable energy.
Bracing for the Typhoon: Climate Change and Sovereign Risk in Southeast Asia
Greater climate vulnerability appears to have a sizable positive effect on sovereign bond yields, while greater resilience to climate change has an offsetting effect.
With N. Renzhi. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol. 82, no. 102132, 2023.
With E. Sugandi. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol. 80, no. 102102, 2023.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Open Economies Review, Vol. 34, pp. 519-540, 2023.
With E. Sugandi. Finance Research Letters, Vol. 54, no. 103769, 2023.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 59(6), pp. 1976-1991, 2023.
With D. Azhgaliyeva and R. Mishra. Climate Policy, Vol. 23(1), pp. 71-87, 2023.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Singapore Economic Review, 2021.
With N. Renzhi, E. Sugandi and U. Volz. Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 26(4), pp. 498-538, 2021.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 76, pp. 920-936, 2021.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 115(C), no. 102389, 2021.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Sustainable Development, Vol. 29(3), pp. 537-551, 2021.
Economic Modelling, Vol. 92, pp. 358-374, 2020.
With A. Apostolou. Economic Modelling, Vol. 79(C), pp. 118-129, 2019.
With C. Friedrich. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 75, pp. 47-68, 2017.
With G.S. Liu and S. Pen. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Vol. 13(3), pp. 197-216, 2015.
With J. Gieck. Review of International Economics, Vol. 22(4), pp. 639-659, 2014.
With M. Fratzscher. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 34(C), pp. 60-82, 2013.
With G.M. Caporale, and N. Spagnolo. The Manchester School, Vol. 81(6), pp. 925-940, 2013.
With G.M. Caporale, M. Schulze-Ghattas and N. Spagnolo. Review of International Economics, Vol. 21(5), pp. 1060-1075, 2013.
With C. Beulen, G. Liu, and A. Mirzaei. China Economic Review, Vol. 27(C), pp. 37-51, 2013.
With J. Yang, G. Liu, and P. Sheng. Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 20(10), pp. 949-952, July, 2013.
With G. Liu, and A. Mirzaei. Economics Bulletin, Vol. 32(4), pp. 3166-3173, 2012.
International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 26(3), pp. 367-385, 2012.
Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 31, pp. 534-551, 2012.
With G. Liu, and L. Zhang. Economics Bulletin, Vol. 32(1), pp. 466-474, 2012.
With M. Bijsterbosch. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 33(2), pp. 241-254, 2011.
With G.M. Caporale, M. Schulze-Ghattas, and N. Spagnolo. Fiducie, Vol. 18(1), pp. 16-19, 2010.
With G.M. Caporale, M. Schulze-Ghattas, and N. Spagnolo. Emerging Markets Review 11(3), pp. 250-260, 2010.
Economics Bulletin, Vol. 29(2), pp. 1421-1432, 2009.
With G.M. Caporale, and N. Spagnolo.Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences, Vol. 3(2), pp. 44-68 (Special Issue on Empirical Finance), 2009.
International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 15(2), pp. 261-262, 2009.
Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, Vol. 1(2), pp. 1-25, 2008.
With G. de Bondt. Applied Financial Economics Letters, Vol. 4(6), pp. 439-442, 2008.
With J. Hunter and M. Simpson. Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences, Vol. 1(2), pp. 55-70, 2007.
With N. Campos. The Economics of Transition, Vol. 15(1), pp. 57-76, 2007.
Central banks in emerging Asia have helped to bolster the resilience of their economies to external shocks, but the exchange rate channel remains a key transmission mechanism of disturbances.
Corporate market power has increased in Asia during the past decade, which can compromise the effectiveness of monetary policy.
ChatGPT has the potential to lay the foundation for structural change and economywide productivity growth.
With P. Panthi, Asia Bond Monitor March 2023, Box 4, pp.12-14, Manila: Asian Development Bank.
Market power has been a long-standing concern for many policy makers and academic researchers as it greatly matters for economic welfare and resource allocation.
A tightening United States monetary policy cycle in 2022 in the face of severe inflationary pressures has led to a broad-based appreciation of the US dollar.
High levels of institutional quality help to enhance the resilience of capital flows and economic output to financial shocks.
Fintech has been instrumental in helping to sustain businesses and households during the COVID-19 pandemic, with scope to be an integral driver of sustainable economic development in the post-pandemic era.
Asia has made substantial progress on economic development over the past 3 decades, with the quality of institutions playing an important role.
Quantitative easing measures in Southeast Asia helped to alleviate pressure on long-term bond yields and support stability in asset markets.
The yen’s safe-haven status has been called into question after sharp depreciations amid rising energy prices and widening global interest rate differentials relative to Japan.
Local currency bond markets in Asia have helped to mitigate risks of currency and maturity mismatches, but the increasing presence of foreign investors can lead to capital flow reversal risks in crisis times.
Digitalization is helping to transform economies by enhancing economy-wide competitiveness and productivity, with trade being an important channel.
The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Asia highlights the importance of entrenching longer-term sustainability and economic resilience into the recovery process.
With an improved growth outlook in the United States (US) in the second half of 2021 as the economy recovers from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in part related to the substantial fiscal stimulus in the US introduced at the start of 2021, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on course to slow down its asset purchases program, or so-called quantitative easing (QE) tapering. This has sparked fears of sharp capital outflows from emerging market economies (EMEs) and currency depreciations, as occurred during the “taper tantrum” episode of May 2013.
Local currency bond markets (LCBMs) have continued to develop in emerging Asian economies since the early 2000s, with foreign investor participation rising markedly since the global financial crisis of 2007–2008.
The mobilization of climate finance is critical for limiting global warming to within 1.5°C and preventing catastrophic climate change (IPCC 2018). Annual green investments totaling $1.5 trillion are needed (United Nations 2017).
Current account surpluses have persisted in a number of Asian and European economies throughout the global financial crisis and thereafter.
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been a truly global shock to public health, causing one of the most severe global economic downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the resulting lockdowns have led to an unprecedented economic contraction and turbulence in financial markets, which initially caused the largest ever outflows of portfolio capital from emerging market economies (EMEs).
Climate change can have a material impact on sovereign risk through direct and indirect effects on public finances. In addition, climate change raises the cost of capital in climate vulnerable countries and threatens debt sustainability.
A feature of the academic literature on financial cycles relates to the fact that it almost exclusively focuses on selected advanced economies, the findings of which may not necessarily hold for emerging economies. Global capital flow developments and monetary policies in advanced economies mean that financial cycle dynamics may differ substantially in emerging economies, not only in terms of turning points but also with regard to which asset market cycle best characterizes the financial cycle.
The rise of the digital age has created challenges for policy makers around the globe in managing their economies. Early work on this issue by Cecchetti (2002) noted that macroeconomic management becomes more complex in an environment of digitalization given shifting trend productivity and difficulties in estimating potential output.
With M. Fratzscher. In edited volume The Economics of Sovereign Debt, R.W. Kolb (ed.), John Wiley & Son, pp. 60-82, 2016.
With G.M. Caporale, M. Schulze-Ghattas and N. Spagnolo. In edited volume Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations, R.W. Kolb (ed.), John Wiley & Son, pp. 163-169, 2011.
In this podcast, ADBI’s Dina Azhgaliyeva and John Beirne, and Ranjeeta Mishra from the Reserve Bank of India explain the effect of government renewable energy policies on private investment, drawing upon developments in Asia and the Pacific.
In this podcast, ADBI Dean Tetsushi Sonobe, Co-Chair of the T7 Task Force on Sustainable Economic Recovery, and ADBI’s John Beirne and Dina Azhgaliyeva discuss the role and future of the T7.
In this podcast, ADBI Research Fellow John Beirne explains how improvements in infrastructure, digital literacy, and regulation can maximize digitalization’s benefits for the economies in Asia and the Pacific.
In this podcast, ADBI Research Fellow John Beirne addresses these fundamental questions, describing new research that underscores the importance of building longer-term resilience and sustainability in Asia and possible ways forward.
In this podcast, ADBI Research Fellow John Beirne discusses some of the key insights from a joint ADBI-ADB-Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance event on the implications of COVID-19 for fintech, with a focus on developments in Asia and the Pacific.
In this podcast, ADBI research fellow, John Beirne, discusses the ways in which climate risks affect the cost of sovereign borrowing and the sustainability of public finances, with a focus on Southeast Asia which is highly threatened by climate change.
In this podcast, ADBI research fellow, John Beirne, discusses the increasing prominence of the digital economy and digital finance and how continued digitalization will affect policies aimed at managing Asia and the Pacific’s emerging market economies.
Beirne, J., A. H. Khan, A. Surry, P. P. Mitra, and P. Panthi. 2023. T7 Policy Brief, Task Force 1: Development and Economic Prosperity.
Latif, A. A., D. Khanna, D. Rahut, and J. Beirne. 2023. T7 Issue Paper, Task Force 1: Development and Economic Prosperity.
Beirne, J., and T. Riefky. 2022. T20 Policy Brief, Task Force 7: International Finance and Economic Recovery.
Subacchi, P., D. Vines, J. Beirne, A. Filardo, M. L. Fung, A. Garcia Herrero, S. Romano, M. Toksoz, and P. van den Noord. 2022. T7 Policy Brief, Task Force: Sustainable Economic Recovery.
Beirne, J., N. Bilotta , M. L. Fung, and T. Singh. 2022. T7 Policy Brief, Task Force: Sustainable Economic Recovery.
Beirne, J., N. Renzhi, and U. Volz. 2021. T20 Policy Brief, Task Force 9: International Finance.
G7 läuten neue China-Politik ein (article in German: “G7 heralds new China policy”)
Economic coercion amid an uncertain global economic outlook
Asia Business Report: Yen Pressure and FX Intervention