John Beirne, Vice-Chair of Research and Senior Research Fellow
John Beirne
John Beirne was appointed Vice-Chair of Research and Senior Research Fellow at the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) in April 2022.
He joined ADBI as a Research Fellow in March 2019. He has over 20 years of experience as an economist in the public and private sectors. In his current role, he co-heads ADBI’s Research Department, leading research workstreams on macroeconomics, finance, and infrastructure. He is also co-managing editor of the ADBI Working Paper Series.
Previously, he worked as an economist at the European Central Bank in various positions for around 11 years, mainly in the areas of international policy analysis and economic research on global financial markets, capital flows, and commodities. He also worked for around six years as an economic consultant with KPMG and senior economist with DTZ in Ireland and the United Kingdom (UK), and for three years as a part-time lecturer in economics at Brunel University in the UK.
His research focuses on international macroeconomics, financial economics, and applied econometrics. He has published numerous articles in peer-reviewed journals in economics and finance, co-authored or coedited several ADBI books, and serves as an editorial board member of the Asian Development Review and Asian Economics Letters. He presents his research regularly at international conferences and lectures at the University of Tokyo and Hitotsubashi University in Japan on topics related to financial globalization, monetary policy, and macro-financial risk. He is also a frequent commentator in the media on global macro issues, having interviewed with outlets such as Al Jazeera, Arirang, BBC, Bloomberg, China Daily, Japan Times, and RTHK. He holds a PhD in Economics from Brunel University.
Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic
While the ultimate resolution of COVID-19 may lead to a market correction as uncertainty declines, there may be some permanent effects on financial markets and capital flows.
Persistent Current Account Imbalances: Are they Good or Bad for Regional and Global Growth?
Current account surplus shocks emanating from the People's Republic of China, Japan, and Germany have strong positive effects on regional growth.
Financial Cycles in Asset Markets and Regions
Equity market cycles in emerging market economies in Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe may be a more useful gauge of the financial cycle compared to cycles in credit and property markets.
With E. Sugandi. Finance Research Letters, 2023.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2023.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Open Economies Review, 2023.
With D. Azhgaliyeva and R. Mishra. Climate Policy, Vol. 23(1), pp. 71-87, 2022.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Singapore Economic Review, 2021.
With N. Renzhi, E. Sugandi and U. Volz. Pacific Economic Review, Vol. 26(4), pp. 498-538, 2021.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 76, pp. 920-936, 2021.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 115(C), no. 102389, 2021.
With N. Renzhi and U. Volz. Sustainable Development, Vol. 29(3), pp. 537-551, 2021.
Economic Modelling, Vol. 92, pp. 358-374, 2020.
With A. Apostolou. Economic Modelling, Vol. 79(C), pp. 118-129, 2019.
With C. Friedrich. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 75, pp. 47-68, 2017.
With G.S. Liu and S. Pen. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Vol. 13(3), pp. 197-216, 2015.
With J. Gieck. Review of International Economics, Vol. 22(4), pp. 639-659, 2014.
With M. Fratzscher. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 34(C), pp. 60-82, 2013.
With G.M. Caporale, and N. Spagnolo. The Manchester School, Vol. 81(6), pp. 925-940, 2013.
With G.M. Caporale, M. Schulze-Ghattas and N. Spagnolo. Review of International Economics, Vol. 21(5), pp. 1060-1075, 2013.
With C. Beulen, G. Liu, and A. Mirzaei. China Economic Review, Vol. 27(C), pp. 37-51, 2013.
With J. Yang, G. Liu, and P. Sheng. Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 20(10), pp. 949-952, July, 2013.
With G. Liu, and A. Mirzaei. Economics Bulletin, Vol. 32(4), pp. 3166-3173, 2012.
International Review of Applied Economics, Vol. 26(3), pp. 367-385, 2012.
Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 31, pp. 534-551, 2012.
With G. Liu, and L. Zhang. Economics Bulletin, Vol. 32(1), pp. 466-474, 2012.
With M. Bijsterbosch. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 33(2), pp. 241-254, 2011.
With G.M. Caporale, M. Schulze-Ghattas, and N. Spagnolo. Fiducie, Vol. 18(1), pp. 16-19, 2010.
With G.M. Caporale, M. Schulze-Ghattas, and N. Spagnolo. Emerging Markets Review 11(3), pp. 250-260, 2010.
Economics Bulletin, Vol. 29(2), pp. 1421-1432, 2009.
With G.M. Caporale, and N. Spagnolo.Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences, Vol. 3(2), pp. 44-68 (Special Issue on Empirical Finance), 2009.
International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 15(2), pp. 261-262, 2009.
Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, Vol. 1(2), pp. 1-25, 2008.
With G. de Bondt. Applied Financial Economics Letters, Vol. 4(6), pp. 439-442, 2008.
With J. Hunter and M. Simpson. Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis in Social Sciences, Vol. 1(2), pp. 55-70, 2007.
With N. Campos. The Economics of Transition, Vol. 15(1), pp. 57-76, 2007.
With P. Panthi, Asia Bond Monitor March 2023, Box 4, pp.12-14, Manila: Asian Development Bank.
Market power has been a long-standing concern for many policy makers and academic researchers as it greatly matters for economic welfare and resource allocation.
A tightening United States monetary policy cycle in 2022 in the face of severe inflationary pressures has led to a broad-based appreciation of the US dollar.
High levels of institutional quality help to enhance the resilience of capital flows and economic output to financial shocks.
Fintech has been instrumental in helping to sustain businesses and households during the COVID-19 pandemic, with scope to be an integral driver of sustainable economic development in the post-pandemic era.
Asia has made substantial progress on economic development over the past 3 decades, with the quality of institutions playing an important role.
Quantitative easing measures in Southeast Asia helped to alleviate pressure on long-term bond yields and support stability in asset markets.
The yen’s safe-haven status has been called into question after sharp depreciations amid rising energy prices and widening global interest rate differentials relative to Japan.
Local currency bond markets in Asia have helped to mitigate risks of currency and maturity mismatches, but the increasing presence of foreign investors can lead to capital flow reversal risks in crisis times.
Digitalization is helping to transform economies by enhancing economy-wide competitiveness and productivity, with trade being an important channel.
The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Asia highlights the importance of entrenching longer-term sustainability and economic resilience into the recovery process.
With an improved growth outlook in the United States (US) in the second half of 2021 as the economy recovers from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in part related to the substantial fiscal stimulus in the US introduced at the start of 2021, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on course to slow down its asset purchases program, or so-called quantitative easing (QE) tapering. This has sparked fears of sharp capital outflows from emerging market economies (EMEs) and currency depreciations, as occurred during the “taper tantrum” episode of May 2013.
Local currency bond markets (LCBMs) have continued to develop in emerging Asian economies since the early 2000s, with foreign investor participation rising markedly since the global financial crisis of 2007–2008.
The mobilization of climate finance is critical for limiting global warming to within 1.5°C and preventing catastrophic climate change (IPCC 2018). Annual green investments totaling $1.5 trillion are needed (United Nations 2017).
Current account surpluses have persisted in a number of Asian and European economies throughout the global financial crisis and thereafter.
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been a truly global shock to public health, causing one of the most severe global economic downturns since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the resulting lockdowns have led to an unprecedented economic contraction and turbulence in financial markets, which initially caused the largest ever outflows of portfolio capital from emerging market economies (EMEs).
Climate change can have a material impact on sovereign risk through direct and indirect effects on public finances. In addition, climate change raises the cost of capital in climate vulnerable countries and threatens debt sustainability.
A feature of the academic literature on financial cycles relates to the fact that it almost exclusively focuses on selected advanced economies, the findings of which may not necessarily hold for emerging economies. Global capital flow developments and monetary policies in advanced economies mean that financial cycle dynamics may differ substantially in emerging economies, not only in terms of turning points but also with regard to which asset market cycle best characterizes the financial cycle.
The rise of the digital age has created challenges for policy makers around the globe in managing their economies. Early work on this issue by Cecchetti (2002) noted that macroeconomic management becomes more complex in an environment of digitalization given shifting trend productivity and difficulties in estimating potential output.
With M. Fratzscher. In edited volume The Economics of Sovereign Debt, R.W. Kolb (ed.), John Wiley & Son, pp. 60-82, 2016.
With G.M. Caporale, M. Schulze-Ghattas and N. Spagnolo. In edited volume Financial Contagion: The Viral Threat to the Wealth of Nations, R.W. Kolb (ed.), John Wiley & Son, pp. 163-169, 2011.
In this podcast, ADBI’s Dina Azhgaliyeva and John Beirne, and Ranjeeta Mishra from the Reserve Bank of India explain the effect of government renewable energy policies on private investment, drawing upon developments in Asia and the Pacific.
In this podcast, ADBI Dean Tetsushi Sonobe, Co-Chair of the T7 Task Force on Sustainable Economic Recovery, and ADBI’s John Beirne and Dina Azhgaliyeva discuss the role and future of the T7.
In this podcast, ADBI Research Fellow John Beirne explains how improvements in infrastructure, digital literacy, and regulation can maximize digitalization’s benefits for the economies in Asia and the Pacific.
In this podcast, ADBI Research Fellow John Beirne addresses these fundamental questions, describing new research that underscores the importance of building longer-term resilience and sustainability in Asia and possible ways forward.
In this podcast, ADBI Research Fellow John Beirne discusses some of the key insights from a joint ADBI-ADB-Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance event on the implications of COVID-19 for fintech, with a focus on developments in Asia and the Pacific.
In this podcast, ADBI research fellow, John Beirne, discusses the ways in which climate risks affect the cost of sovereign borrowing and the sustainability of public finances, with a focus on Southeast Asia which is highly threatened by climate change.
In this podcast, ADBI research fellow, John Beirne, discusses the increasing prominence of the digital economy and digital finance and how continued digitalization will affect policies aimed at managing Asia and the Pacific’s emerging market economies.
Beirne, J., and T. Riefky. 2022. T20 Policy Brief, Task Force 7: International Finance and Economic Recovery.
Subacchi, P., D. Vines, J. Beirne, A. Filardo, M. L. Fung, A. Garcia Herrero, S. Romano, M. Toksoz, and P. van den Noord. 2022. T7 Policy Brief, Task Force: Sustainable Economic Recovery.
Beirne, J., N. Bilotta , M. L. Fung, and T. Singh. 2022. T7 Policy Brief, Task Force: Sustainable Economic Recovery.
Beirne, J., N. Renzhi, and U. Volz. 2021. T20 Policy Brief, Task Force 9: International Finance.
Asia Business Report: Yen Pressure and FX Intervention