Peter J. Morgan, Senior Consulting Economist, Vice Chair | Asian Development Bank

At the forefront of growth and development in Asia and the Pacific

Peter J. Morgan, Senior Consulting Economist, Vice Chair

Peter Morgan

Joined the Asian Development Bank Institute as a senior consultant for research in December 2008.

Peter Morgan joined the Asian Development Bank Institute in December 2008. Previously he served in Hong Kong as Chief Asia Economist for HSBC, responsible for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for Asia. Before that, he was Chief Japan Economist for HSBC, and earlier held similar positions at Merrill Lynch, Barclays de Zoete Wedd, and Jardine Fleming. Prior to entering the financial industry, he worked as a consultant for Meta Systems Inc in Cambridge, Massachusetts, US, specializing in energy and environmental areas, including energy policy issues in Asian countries, and at International Business Information KK in Tokyo, specializing in financial sector consulting.

Peter's research areas are macroeconomic policy and financial sector regulation and reform. Recent publications include "The Role and Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy" and "Unregulated Entities, Products and Markets: Challenges for Monitoring and Regulation". He is currently helping to edit a joint ADBI and ADB book on ways to achieve sustainable growth in Asia in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, as well as contributing to the chapter on deepening the financial system in that book. He earned his MA and PhD degrees in economics from Yale University.

Pages

Public and Private Investment in Human Capital and Intergenerational Transfers in Asia: An Overview.

With C. Horioka, Y. Niimi and G. Wan. Journal of Asia and Pacific Economy. Forthcoming.

Comment on “Informality, Micro and Small Enterprises, and the 2016 Demonetisation Policy in India”.

Asia Economic Policy Review. 2018 13(4), forthcoming.

Financial Stability and Financial Inclusion.

With V. Pontines. Singapore Economic Review 63(1), pp. 111-124. 2018.

Mortgage Lending, Banking Crises and Financial Stability in Asia.

With Y. Zhang. Singapore Economic Review 63(1), pp. 125-146. 2018.

Mortgage Lending, Banking Crises and Financial Stability in Asia and Europe.

With Y. Zhang. Asia-Europe Journal 15(4), pages 463-482, 2017.

Comment on "Building an Efficient Financial System in China: A Need for Stronger Market Discipline".

Asia Economic Policy Review. 2017 12(2), 206-207.

Overview on 'escaping the middle-income trap’.

With G. Wan. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. 22 (1), 2017.

Prospects for a Re-acceleration of Economic Growth in the PRC.

With Justin Yifu Lin and Guanghua Wan. Journal of Comparative Economics 44 (4), 2016.

Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium-term to Long-term Growth in China.

With Justin Yifu Lin and Guanghua Wan. China & World Economy  24(5), 20-41, 2016.

Economic Implications of Deeper South Asian–Southeast Asian Integration: A CGE Approach.

With Ganeshan Wignaraja, Michael Plummer and Fan Zhai. Asian Economic Papers 14 (3). 2015.

Time Varying Asian Stock Market Integration.

With Jonathan Batten and Peter Szilagyi. The Singapore Economic Review 60(1), March 2015.

Challenges and Strategies for Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Asia.

With M. Kawai. PRI Financial Review 120 (4) (in Japanese). Tokyo: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan. September 2014.

Managing Fiscal Sustainability and Aging in Emerging Asia.

With Bart Edes. Public Policy Review, Vol.10 No 2. Tokyo: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan. August 2014.

“Central Banking for Financial Stability in Asia” with Masahiro Kawai.

Public Policy Review, Vol.8, No 3. Tokyo: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan. September 2012.

The Role of Macroeconomic Policy in Rebalancing Growth. 2012.

Journal of Asian Economics, 23/1, 12-35.

Comments on Changes in Development Finance in Asia: Trends, Challenges and Policy Implications by Toshiro Nishizawa.

2011. Asian Economic Policy Review, 6/2, 245-246.

The Role and Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy. 2010.

Journal of the Korean Economy, 11/1, 55-102.

“Alternative policy instruments under uncertainty: A programming model of toxic pollution control”

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 10, 248-269 (1983).

“The economic feasibility of shale oil: An activity analysis”

The Bell Journal of Economics 9(2), pp. 457-487 (1978), with Neil R. Ericsson.

“Asian Perspectives on the Evolving Global Economic Architecture.” With N. Yoshino and P. Rana. In N. Yoshino, P. Morgan & P. Rana, eds. 2018.

Global Shocks and the Global–Regional Financial Architecture: Asian Perspectives. ADBI Press.

“Regional Financial Regulation in Asia.” In N. Yoshino, P. Morgan & P. Rana, eds. 2018.

Global Shocks and the Global–Regional Financial Architecture: Asian Perspectives. ADBI Press.

“Introduction.” With J. Y.F. Lin and G. Wan. In J. Y.F. Lin, G. Wan & P. Morgan, eds. 2018.

Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia. ADBI Press.

“Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium- to Long-term Growth in China.” With J. Y.F. Lin and G. Wan. In J. Y.F. Lin, G. Wan & P. Morgan, eds. 2018.

Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia. ADBI Press.

“Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis.” With J. Fan. In J. Y.F. Lin, G. Wan & P. Morgan, eds. 2018.

Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia. ADBI Press.

“Overview of Financial Inclusion, Regulation and Education.” With N. Yoshino, In N. Yoshino & P. Morgan, eds. 2017.

Financial Inclusion, Regulation, and Education: Asian Perspectives. ADBI Press.

“Overview of Financial Inclusion, Regulation, and Education” in N. Yoshino & P. Morgan, eds., 2017.

Financial Inclusion, Regulation, and Education: Asian Perspectives. Tokyo: ADB Institute.

“Frameworks for Central-Local Government Relations and Fiscal Sustainability.” With Long Q. Trinh. In N. Yoshino & P. Morgan, eds. 2017.

Central and Local Government Relations in Asia. Edward Elgar.

“Fiscal decentralization and local budget deficits in Viet Nam: an empirical analysis.” With Long Q. Trinh. In N. Yoshino & P. Morgan, eds. 2017.

Central and Local Government Relations in Asia. Edward Elgar.

“Introduction and Overview.” 2016. With Michael G. Plummer and Ganeshan Wignaraja. In Michael G. Plummer, Peter J. Morgan and Ganeshan Wignaraja, eds.

Connecting Asia: Infrastructure for Integrating South and Southeast Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers.

“Economic Implications of Deeper South Asian-Southeast Asian Integration: A CGE Approach.” 2016. With Michael G. Plummer and Ganeshan Wignaraja. In Michael G. Plummer, Peter J. Morgan and Ganeshan Wignaraja, eds.

Connecting Asia: Infrastructure for Integrating South and Southeast Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers.

“Monetary Policy Frameworks in Asia”. 2015. In Akira Kohsaka, ed.

Macro-Financial Linkages in the Pacific Region. Routledge. Oxon, UK and New York, USA.

“Deepening the Financial System”. With David Mayes and Hank Lim. 2015. In Masahiro Kawai and Jong-Wha Lee, eds.

Rebalancing for Sustainable Growth: Asia’s Postcrisis Challenge. ADB/ADBI. Manila.

“Regional Financial Regulation in Asia”. With M. Kawai. 2014. In M. Kawai, P. Morgan and P. Rana.

New Global Economic Architecture: The Asian Perspective. Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Publishers.

“Regional and Global Monetary Cooperation”. With M. Lamberte. 2014. In M. Kawai, M. Lamberte and P. Morgan, eds.

Reform of the International Monetary System: Asian Perspectives. Tokyo: Springer.

“Monetary Policy Frameworks in Asia: Experience, Lessons and Issues.” 2014. In Japan Committee for Pacific Economic Outlook

Monetary Policy Regimes in the Pacific Region: Background Papers. Osaka, Japan and Singapore: Pacific Economic Cooperation Council.

“Banking Crises and ‘Japanization’: Origins and Implications”. With M. Kawai. In Rhee, C., and A. Posen, eds. 2013.

Responding to Financial Crisis: Lessons from Asia Then, the United States and Europe Now. Manila and Washington, DC: Asian Development Bank and Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“The Role and Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy”. 2012. In Kawai, M., P. Morgan and S. Takagi. 2012.

Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.

“The Global Financial Crisis and its Implications for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia. With D. Mayes.”2012. In Kawai, M., D. Mayes and P. Morgan, eds. 2012.

Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers.

Kawai, M., D. Mayes and P. Morgan. 2012.

Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers.

15 August 2018 A new global and regional financial architecture to address global shocks - Asia Pathways

In the postwar period, the global economic and financial architecture was dominated by the advanced economies in the West. They designed the international monetary system, international development financing frameworks, and global trade liberalization schemes.

31 August 2017 Financial literacy and savings: Evidence from Cambodia and Viet Nam - Asia Pathways

Financial literacy has gained an important position in the policy agenda of many countries, and the importance of collecting informative, reliable data on the levels of financial literacy across adult populations has been widely recognized (OECD/INFE 2015a).

30 June 2017 Costs of expanded public pension coverage in emerging Asia - Asia Pathways

IThe fiscal burden of public pensions in most emerging Asian economies is relatively small, reflecting relatively young populations and limited coverage of the retired-age population in public pension programs.

19 October 2016 Assessing policies to promote financial inclusion, regulation, and education in emerging Asia - Asia Pathways

Financial inclusion has been receiving increasing attention for its potential to contribute to economic and financial development while fostering more inclusive growth and greater income equality. There are numerous arguments in favor of increasing financial inclusion, and a large body of evidence shows that increased financial inclusion can significantly reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity.

8 April 2016 Impact of a possible growth slowdown of the People’s Republic of China on emerging Asia: A general equilibrium analysis - Asia Pathways

With its rapid economic growth and integration into the global economy over the last 3 decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a major economic power and an important source of growth for the world economy.

7 April 2016 Morgan and Zhang: Asian home lending a source of stability - Nikkei

Financial sectors in Asian economies are dominated by banks, so maintaining their financial stability is crucial. Domestic banking crises often originate in the real estate sector -- the subprime crisis in the United States in 2007 to 2010 was only the most recent example. Therefore, one might conclude that mortgage lending is negative for financial stability.

31 August 2015 Mortgage lending and financial stability in Asia - Asia Pathways

Domestic banking crises often originate in the real estate sector. Therefore, one might conclude that mortgage lending is negative for financial stability. However, in normal (noncrisis) periods, mortgage lending may actually contribute to financial stability. This is because mortgage loans have different risk properties from other bank assets such as commercial loans, so having some share of mortgage loans in a bank’s portfolio tends to diversify the risk of that portfolio.

6 July 2015 Loan-to-value policy as a macroprudential tool: The case of residential mortgage loans in Asia - Asia Pathways

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 underlined the need for central banks and financial regulators to take a macroprudential perspective on financial risk, i.e., to monitor and regulate the buildup of systemic financial risk in the economy as a whole, as opposed to simply monitoring the condition of individual financial institutions (microprudential regulation).

25 May 2015 The case for connecting South Asia and Southeast Asia - Asia Pathways

The time is ripe for enhancing economic integration between South Asia and Southeast Asia. The new "normal" era of slow growth in advanced industrial economies following the global financial crisis suggests that Asian economies will need to rely more on domestic and regional demand to secure inclusive growth.

4 March 2015 Potential gains from closer cooperation between South Asia and Southeast Asia - Asia Pathways

South Asian and Southeast Asian economies have all embraced an outward-oriented development strategy, albeit to different degrees. The result has been an impressive increase in international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and significant productivity improvements, which in turn have contributed to important socio-economic gains.

20 February 2015 Why do we need financial education in Asia? - Asia Pathways

This article assesses the case for promoting financial education in Asia. It argues that the benefits of investing in financial education can be substantial.

17 February 2015 Why Asia needs more financial education - Nikkei

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, financial literacy and financial education are gaining more attention around the world. There were sobering lessons, for example, in how the mis-selling of financial products contributed directly to the severity of the crisis, both in developed economies and in Asia.

14 August 2014 Increased lending to SMEs aids financial stability - Asia Pathways

A key lesson of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) was the importance of containing systemic financial risk and maintaining financial stability. At the same time, developing economies are seeking to promote financial inclusion, such as greater access to financial services for low-income households and small firms, as part of their overall strategies for economic and financial development.

11 September 2013 Banking crises and ‘Japanization’: Origins and implications - Asia Pathways

Recent research has found that economic recoveries from banking crises tend to be weaker and more prolonged than those from traditional types of deep recessions (see for example IMF 2009). Japan’s “two lost decades” perhaps represent an extreme example of this, and the experience has now passed into the lexicon as “Japanese-style stagnation” or “Japanization” for short.

25 January 2013 The Bank of Japan’s new monetary policy framework: Less than meets the eye - Asia Pathways

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its much-awaited new monetary policy framework on 22 January 2013, following heightened pressure from newly-elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for it to pursue “unlimited” monetary easing in order to finally overcome deflation.

17 October 2012 Japan’s post-disaster growth strategy - Asia Pathways

The Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011 was the biggest earthquake recorded in Japanese seismic history, and the fourth largest recorded in the world. The scope of the triple disaster consisting of an earthquake, a tsunami, and a nuclear accident, far exceeded that of the Hanshin Earthquake of 1995.

18 July 2012 Should a resumption of US quantitative easing worry emerging Asia? - Asia Pathways

Two episodes of quantitative easing (QE) by the United States (US) Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) since early 2009 aroused widespread concerns in emerging Asia and elsewhere because of the possibility that they would weaken the US dollar (so-called “currency wars”) and stimulate capital inflows in emerging economies that might lead to increased inflationary pressures and asset price bubbles.

26 April 2012 What makes an effective international financial safety net? - Asia Pathways

The global financial crisis showed the need for a large-scale and effective international financial safety net (IFSN). Although East Asia has had a regional financial arrangement (RFA) since 2000 (the Chiang Mai Initiative), it was not tapped during the global financial crisis for a variety of reasons.

16 February 2017 Financial Inclusion, Regulation, and Education in Asia

Policies to promote financial inclusion need to be aligned with economic incentives; otherwise the results may miss targeted groups. Simply setting quotas for financial access for target groups is unlikely to ensure access for the neediest groups. Peter Morgan, ADBI senior consultant for research, explains that a thriving microfinance sector can make an important contribution to financial inclusion.