Peter J. Morgan, Senior Consulting Economist, Vice Chair
Peter Morgan
Joined the Asian Development Bank Institute as a senior consultant for research in December 2008.
Peter Morgan joined the Asian Development Bank Institute in December 2008. Previously he served in Hong Kong as Chief Asia Economist for HSBC, responsible for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for Asia. Before that, he was Chief Japan Economist for HSBC, and earlier held similar positions at Merrill Lynch, Barclays de Zoete Wedd, and Jardine Fleming. Prior to entering the financial industry, he worked as a consultant for Meta Systems Inc in Cambridge, Massachusetts, US, specializing in energy and environmental areas, including energy policy issues in Asian countries, and at International Business Information KK in Tokyo, specializing in financial sector consulting.
Peter's research areas are macroeconomic policy and financial sector regulation and reform. Recent publications include "The Role and Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy" and "Unregulated Entities, Products and Markets: Challenges for Monitoring and Regulation". He is currently helping to edit a joint ADBI and ADB book on ways to achieve sustainable growth in Asia in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, as well as contributing to the chapter on deepening the financial system in that book. He earned his MA and PhD degrees in economics from Yale University.
-
New Global Economic Architecture: The Asian Perspective
This book addresses how a regional architecture in Asia can induce a supply of regional public goods that can complement and strengthen the distribution of global public goods in the global economic architecture. -
Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia
This book highlights the challenges imposed by the global financial crisis. -
Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia
This book studies the implications of the recent global financial crisis for emerging Asian economies with respect to their monetary and currency policy.
-
Determinants and Impacts of Financial Literacy in the Lao PDR
Financial literacy is gaining increasing importance as a policy objective in many countries. -
Overview of Financial Inclusion, Regulation, Financial Literacy, and Education in Central Asia and South Caucasus
Lack of trust in the financial sector is a problem in the economies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus (CASC). -
Heterogeneous Effects of Migration on Child Welfare: Empirical Evidence from Viet Nam
Migration of other family members does not affect a child’s decision to attend school directly, but indirectly through an increase in time spent at work. -
Financial Literacy in Japan: Determinants and Impacts
Educational level, income, age, and occupational status determine financial literacy. -
Determinants and Impacts of Financial Literacy in Cambodia and Viet Nam
In Cambodia and Viet Nam, the more financially literate and educated people are, the more they save. -
Costs and Potential Funding of Expanded Public Pension Coverage in Asia
Many Asian economies are facing rapidly aging populations, which will dramatically raise pension and other old-age-related spending. -
Fiscal Decentralization and Local Budget Deficits in Viet Nam: An Empirical Analysis
The more dependent on government transfers a province is, the higher the likelihood that it will go into deficit. -
Frameworks for Central–Local Government Relations and Fiscal Sustainability
Asian economies must tackle several issues to enable fiscal decentralization that improves citizens’ welfare. -
Overview of Financial Inclusion, Regulation, and Education
Over half the world’s unbanked adults live in Asia. How can they get more access to finance? Governments in emerging Asian economies need to take a practical and holistic approach. -
Impact of the People’s Republic of China’s Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis
This paper assesses the potential spillover effects of the PRC’s slowdown on its neighboring economies.
Pages
With Paulo Regis and Nimesh Salike. Journal of Financial Intermediation. Forthcoming.
With C. Horioka, Y. Niimi and G. Wan. Journal of Asia and Pacific Economy. Forthcoming.
Asia Economic Policy Review. 2018 13(4), forthcoming.
With V. Pontines. Singapore Economic Review 63(1), pp. 111-124. 2018.
With Y. Zhang. Singapore Economic Review 63(1), pp. 125-146. 2018.
With Y. Zhang. Asia-Europe Journal 15(4), pages 463-482, 2017.
Asia Economic Policy Review. 2017 12(2), 206-207.
With G. Wan. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. 22 (1), 2017.
With Justin Yifu Lin and Guanghua Wan. Journal of Comparative Economics 44 (4), 2016.
With Justin Yifu Lin and Guanghua Wan. China & World Economy 24(5), 20-41, 2016.
With Ganeshan Wignaraja, Michael Plummer and Fan Zhai. Asian Economic Papers 14 (3). 2015.
With Jonathan Batten and Peter Szilagyi. The Singapore Economic Review 60(1), March 2015.
With M. Kawai. PRI Financial Review 120 (4) (in Japanese). Tokyo: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan. September 2014.
With Bart Edes. Public Policy Review, Vol.10 No 2. Tokyo: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan. August 2014.
Public Policy Review, Vol.8, No 3. Tokyo: Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan. September 2012.
Journal of Asian Economics, 23/1, 12-35.
2011. Asian Economic Policy Review, 6/2, 245-246.
Journal of the Korean Economy, 11/1, 55-102.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 10, 248-269 (1983).
The Bell Journal of Economics 9(2), pp. 457-487 (1978), with Neil R. Ericsson.
Routledge Handbook of Banking and Finance in Asia. Oxon, UK: Routledge. With U. Volz and N. Yoshino.
Routledge Handbook of Banking and Finance in Asia. Oxon, UK: Routledge.
China in the Local and Global Economy: History, Geography, Politics and Sustainability, 1st Edition. Oxon, UK: Routledge.
Routledge Handbook of Banking and Finance in Asia. Oxon, UK: Routledge. With S. Nakabayashi and N. Yoshino.
Global Shocks and the Global–Regional Financial Architecture: Asian Perspectives. ADBI Press.
Global Shocks and the Global–Regional Financial Architecture: Asian Perspectives. ADBI Press.
Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia. ADBI Press.
Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia. ADBI Press.
Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and the Implications for Asia. ADBI Press.
Financial Inclusion, Regulation, and Education: Asian Perspectives. ADBI Press.
Financial Inclusion, Regulation, and Education: Asian Perspectives. Tokyo: ADB Institute.
Central and Local Government Relations in Asia. Edward Elgar.
Central and Local Government Relations in Asia. Edward Elgar.
Connecting Asia: Infrastructure for Integrating South and Southeast Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers.
Connecting Asia: Infrastructure for Integrating South and Southeast Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers.
Macro-Financial Linkages in the Pacific Region. Routledge. Oxon, UK and New York, USA.
Rebalancing for Sustainable Growth: Asia’s Postcrisis Challenge. ADB/ADBI. Manila.
New Global Economic Architecture: The Asian Perspective. Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Publishers.
Reform of the International Monetary System: Asian Perspectives. Tokyo: Springer.
Monetary Policy Regimes in the Pacific Region: Background Papers. Osaka, Japan and Singapore: Pacific Economic Cooperation Council.
Responding to Financial Crisis: Lessons from Asia Then, the United States and Europe Now. Manila and Washington, DC: Asian Development Bank and Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers.
Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers.
In the postwar period, the global economic and financial architecture was dominated by the advanced economies in the West. They designed the international monetary system, international development financing frameworks, and global trade liberalization schemes.
Financial literacy has gained an important position in the policy agenda of many countries, and the importance of collecting informative, reliable data on the levels of financial literacy across adult populations has been widely recognized (OECD/INFE 2015a).
IThe fiscal burden of public pensions in most emerging Asian economies is relatively small, reflecting relatively young populations and limited coverage of the retired-age population in public pension programs.
Financial inclusion has been receiving increasing attention for its potential to contribute to economic and financial development while fostering more inclusive growth and greater income equality. There are numerous arguments in favor of increasing financial inclusion, and a large body of evidence shows that increased financial inclusion can significantly reduce poverty and boost shared prosperity.
With its rapid economic growth and integration into the global economy over the last 3 decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a major economic power and an important source of growth for the world economy.
Financial sectors in Asian economies are dominated by banks, so maintaining their financial stability is crucial. Domestic banking crises often originate in the real estate sector -- the subprime crisis in the United States in 2007 to 2010 was only the most recent example. Therefore, one might conclude that mortgage lending is negative for financial stability.
Domestic banking crises often originate in the real estate sector. Therefore, one might conclude that mortgage lending is negative for financial stability. However, in normal (noncrisis) periods, mortgage lending may actually contribute to financial stability. This is because mortgage loans have different risk properties from other bank assets such as commercial loans, so having some share of mortgage loans in a bank’s portfolio tends to diversify the risk of that portfolio.
The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 underlined the need for central banks and financial regulators to take a macroprudential perspective on financial risk, i.e., to monitor and regulate the buildup of systemic financial risk in the economy as a whole, as opposed to simply monitoring the condition of individual financial institutions (microprudential regulation).
The time is ripe for enhancing economic integration between South Asia and Southeast Asia. The new "normal" era of slow growth in advanced industrial economies following the global financial crisis suggests that Asian economies will need to rely more on domestic and regional demand to secure inclusive growth.
South Asian and Southeast Asian economies have all embraced an outward-oriented development strategy, albeit to different degrees. The result has been an impressive increase in international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and significant productivity improvements, which in turn have contributed to important socio-economic gains.
This article assesses the case for promoting financial education in Asia. It argues that the benefits of investing in financial education can be substantial.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, financial literacy and financial education are gaining more attention around the world. There were sobering lessons, for example, in how the mis-selling of financial products contributed directly to the severity of the crisis, both in developed economies and in Asia.
A key lesson of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) was the importance of containing systemic financial risk and maintaining financial stability. At the same time, developing economies are seeking to promote financial inclusion, such as greater access to financial services for low-income households and small firms, as part of their overall strategies for economic and financial development.
Recent research has found that economic recoveries from banking crises tend to be weaker and more prolonged than those from traditional types of deep recessions (see for example IMF 2009). Japan’s “two lost decades” perhaps represent an extreme example of this, and the experience has now passed into the lexicon as “Japanese-style stagnation” or “Japanization” for short.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its much-awaited new monetary policy framework on 22 January 2013, following heightened pressure from newly-elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for it to pursue “unlimited” monetary easing in order to finally overcome deflation.
The Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011 was the biggest earthquake recorded in Japanese seismic history, and the fourth largest recorded in the world. The scope of the triple disaster consisting of an earthquake, a tsunami, and a nuclear accident, far exceeded that of the Hanshin Earthquake of 1995.
Two episodes of quantitative easing (QE) by the United States (US) Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) since early 2009 aroused widespread concerns in emerging Asia and elsewhere because of the possibility that they would weaken the US dollar (so-called “currency wars”) and stimulate capital inflows in emerging economies that might lead to increased inflationary pressures and asset price bubbles.
The global financial crisis showed the need for a large-scale and effective international financial safety net (IFSN). Although East Asia has had a regional financial arrangement (RFA) since 2000 (the Chiang Mai Initiative), it was not tapped during the global financial crisis for a variety of reasons.
Policies to promote financial inclusion need to be aligned with economic incentives; otherwise the results may miss targeted groups. Simply setting quotas for financial access for target groups is unlikely to ensure access for the neediest groups. Peter Morgan, ADBI senior consultant for research, explains that a thriving microfinance sector can make an important contribution to financial inclusion.