ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty.
Established in 1966, it is owned by 69 members—49 from the region.
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ADB supports projects in developing member countries that create economic and development impact, delivered through both public and private sector operations, advisory services, and knowledge support.
Key Findings of the Report
Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero explores what a global net-zero transition could mean for developing Asia. It models emission pathways based on commitments and pledges under the Paris Agreement and compares them with more optimal routes to net zero. The pathways considered will require dramatic transformations in energy and land use, with wide ranging implications.
The report finds that early action and international coordination are critical to ensure a low-cost and equitable net-zero transition. With efficient policies, the benefits of the transition from averted climate damages and improved air quality could outweigh climate mitigation costs by five times. Conversely, if policies are not carefully designed, some economies, industries, communities, and populations could be adversely affected. Yet, failure to address the climate crisis would have consequences that would be even more regressive. To avoid these outcomes, deep decarbonization is needed.
Asia’s Special Stake in the Global Climate Crisis
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Developing Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change. Beyond threatening the livelihoods of Asia’s poor, climate change may also put at risk both regional and global food security.
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Developing Asia’s share of global greenhouse gas emissions nearly doubled, from 22% in 1990 to 44% in 2019 and is expected to remain at this level until mid-century under current policies.
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Governments across developing Asia have made increasingly ambitious climate pledges, but there remains substantial scope to accelerate decarbonization.
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Economic Losses from Climate Change in Developing Asia under a High Emissions Scenario by 2100
Notes: Change in GDP (%) is relative to the scenario without climate change. Scenario results are for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5/C8 Pathway. Mean losses over the period are generated by harmonizing to RCP 8.5 via reported damage functions, averaging across results of reported individual model runs, and extrapolating aggregate losses from 2070 to 2100 via damage functions. The sector composition of losses is held constant over 2070–2100, as damage functions are only reported at the aggregate level. For this reason, the sector composition of losses after 2070 should be interpreted with caution.
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Global Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
1990–2019Note: Emissions from land use change and forestry, which can be positive or negative, are included. Developing Asia includes all ADB member economies except for Hong Kong, China; and Taipei,China for lack of data.
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Most developing Asian economies have submitted NDCs, but fewer have submitted long-term strategies.
Party Most Recent NDC Submission Long-Term Strategy Submission Net Zero Status Afghanistan 2016 First NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Armenia 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Azerbaijan 2017 First NDC NS NS Bangladesh 2021 Updated first NDC NS NS Bhutan 2021 Second NDC 2030 Achieved Cambodia 2020 Updated first NDC 2021 2050 In policy document People's Republic of China 2021 Updated first NDC 2021 2060 In policy document Cook Islands 2016 First NDC NS 2040 In policy document Fiji 2020 Updated first NDC 2019 2050 In law Georgia 2021 Updated first NDC NS NS India 2022 Updated first NDC 2022 2070 Declaration/Pledge Indonesia 2022 Updated first NDC 2021 2060 In policy document Kazakhstan 2016 First NDC NS 2060 In policy document Kiribati 2016 First NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Kyrgyz Republic 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Lao People's Democratic Republic 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 In policy document Malaysia 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 In policy document Maldives 2020 Updated first NDC NS 2030 In law Marshall Islands 2020 Second NDC 2018 2050 In policy document Micronesia, Federated States of 2022 Updated first NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Mongolia 2020 Updated first NDC NS NS Myanmar 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Nauru 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 In policy document Nepal 2020 Second NDC 2021 2050 In policy document Niue 2016 First NDC NS ... Pakistan 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Palau 2016 First NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Papua New Guinea 2020 Second NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Philippines 2021 Updated first NDC NS NS Samoa 2021 Second NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Solomon Islands 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 In policy document Sri Lanka 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 In policy document Tajikistan 2021 Updated first NDC NS NS Thailand 2022 Second NDC 2022 2065 In policy document Timor-Leste 2022 Updated first NDC NS NS Tonga 2020 Updated first NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Turkmenistan 2016 First NDC NS NS Tuvalu 2016 First NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Uzbekistan 2021 Updated first NDC NS 2050 In policy document Vanuatu 2022 Updated first NDC NS 2050 Declaration/Pledge Viet Nam 2022 Updated first NDC NS 2050 In policy document NS = not submitted/declared/pledged, NDC = nationally determined contribution.
Sources: UNFCCC. 2023. NDC Registry; Net Zero Tracker; Climate Action Tracker; CAT Net Zero Tracker(all accessed 20 February 2023); UNEP. 2022. Emissions Gap Report 2022.
Asia’s Transformation during the Global Transition to Net Zero
Key mitigation decisions are embodied in five core scenarios of implementing:
- current policies;
- nationally determined contributions (NDCs);
- uncoordinated pathways toward national net zero pledges after NDCs;
- NDCs followed by coordinated action toward global net zero to achieve well below 2°C of warming; and
- accelerated action toward global net zero to achieve well below 2°C of warming.
The modeling is performed using the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid global integrated assessment model. This has detailed representation of the energy system and expanded resolution to cover developing Asia.
Climate Scenario Matrix
| Scenario | NDCs until 2030 |
2030 to net zero year | International carbon trade | Carbon emissions 2020-2100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current policies | No | Current policies | No | 3,270 GtCO2 (endogenous) |
| NDC effort | Unconditional | NDCs extrapolation | No | 2,650 GtCO2 (endogenous) |
| Uncoordinated net zero | Unconditional | Pledged transition | No | 1,420 GtCO2 (endogenous) |
| Global net zero | Unconditional | Fast transition | Yes | 1,150 GtCO2 |
| Accelerated global net zero | Beyond NDCs | Fast transition | Yes | 1,150 GtCO2 |
GtCO2 = billion tons of carbon dioxide
Source: Asian Development Bank. 2023. Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero: Asian Development Outlook 2023 Thematic Report
Socioeconomic Consequences of the Global Transition to Net Zero
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Policy costs of the low-carbon transition
Asia stands to gain from ambitious climate action, with benefits from avoided damage related to climate change far greater than costs associated with the economic transformation.
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Avoided damages from climate change
Climate action reduces losses from climate change, which will be highest in Asia’s lowest income regions. Climate benefits and cobenefits are 5 times the policy cost of decarbonization under the accelerated net zero scenario.
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Co-benefits of mitigation
Under the accelerated global net zero scenario, about 350,000 lives in developing Asia will be saved annually by 2030 from reduced air pollution. In addition, millions of tons of annual rice and wheat production will be saved from air pollution damage.
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Energy sector jobs
Aggressive decarbonization can lead to loss of 1.4 million jobs in the coal sector in Asia by 2050, while over 2.9 million jobs are created, mostly for manufacturing, installation, and operations of solar PV and wind generation.
Three Policy Pillars to Achieve Developing Asia’s Low-Carbon Transition
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Reforming prices
- Putting a price on carbon emissions.
- Removing subsidies that promote emissions.
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Facilitating low-carbon responses
- Implementing regulations and incentives for decarbonization.
- Leveraging finance for low-carbon activities.
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Ensuring fairness
- Working toward fair international mitigation burden sharing.
- Compensating and protecting vulnerable groups.
- Helping the affected to adjust.
Publication and Links
Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero: Asian Development Outlook 2023 Thematic Report
Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero explores what a global net-zero transition could mean for developing Asia. It models emission pathways based on commitments and pledges under the Paris Agreement and compares them with more optimal routes to net zero. The net zero pathways considered will require dramatic transformations in energy and land use, with wide ranging implications.