Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero explores what a global net-zero transition could mean for developing Asia. It models emission pathways based on commitments and pledges under the Paris Agreement and compares them with more optimal routes to net zero. The pathways considered will require dramatic transformations in energy and land use, with wide ranging implications.
The report finds that early action and international coordination are critical to ensure a low-cost and equitable net-zero transition. With efficient policies, the benefits of the transition from averted climate damages and improved air quality could outweigh climate mitigation costs by five times. Conversely, if policies are not carefully designed, some economies, industries, communities, and populations could be adversely affected. Yet, failure to address the climate crisis would have consequences that would be even more regressive. To avoid these outcomes, deep decarbonization is needed.
Notes: Change in GDP (%) is relative to the scenario without climate change. Scenario results are for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5/C8 Pathway. Mean losses over the period are generated by harmonizing to RCP 8.5 via reported damage functions, averaging across results of reported individual model runs, and extrapolating aggregate losses from 2070 to 2100 via damage functions. The sector composition of losses is held constant over 2070–2100, as damage functions are only reported at the aggregate level. For this reason, the sector composition of losses after 2070 should be interpreted with caution.
Note: Emissions from land use change and forestry, which can be positive or negative, are included. Developing Asia includes all ADB member economies except for Hong Kong, China; and Taipei,China for lack of data.
Most developing Asian economies have submitted NDCs, but fewer have submitted long-term strategies.
|Party||Most Recent NDC Submission||Long-Term Strategy Submission||Net Zero||Status|
|Armenia||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||Declaration/Pledge|
|Bangladesh||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||NS|
|Cambodia||2020||Updated first NDC||2021||2050||In policy document|
|People's Republic of China||2021||Updated first NDC||2021||2060||In policy document|
|Cook Islands||2016||First NDC||NS||2040||In policy document|
|Fiji||2020||Updated first NDC||2019||2050||In law|
|Georgia||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||NS|
|India||2022||Updated first NDC||2022||2070||Declaration/Pledge|
|Indonesia||2022||Updated first NDC||2021||2060||In policy document|
|Kazakhstan||2016||First NDC||NS||2060||In policy document|
|Kyrgyz Republic||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||Declaration/Pledge|
|Lao People's Democratic Republic||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||In policy document|
|Malaysia||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||In policy document|
|Maldives||2020||Updated first NDC||NS||2030||In law|
|Marshall Islands||2020||Second NDC||2018||2050||In policy document|
|Micronesia, Federated States of||2022||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||Declaration/Pledge|
|Mongolia||2020||Updated first NDC||NS||NS|
|Myanmar||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||Declaration/Pledge|
|Nauru||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||In policy document|
|Nepal||2020||Second NDC||2021||2050||In policy document|
|Pakistan||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||Declaration/Pledge|
|Papua New Guinea||2020||Second NDC||NS||2050||Declaration/Pledge|
|Philippines||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||NS|
|Solomon Islands||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||In policy document|
|Sri Lanka||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||In policy document|
|Tajikistan||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||NS|
|Thailand||2022||Second NDC||2022||2065||In policy document|
|Timor-Leste||2022||Updated first NDC||NS||NS|
|Tonga||2020||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||Declaration/Pledge|
|Uzbekistan||2021||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||In policy document|
|Vanuatu||2022||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||Declaration/Pledge|
|Viet Nam||2022||Updated first NDC||NS||2050||In policy document|
NS = not submitted/declared/pledged, NDC = nationally determined contribution.
Sources: UNFCCC. 2023. NDC Registry; Net Zero Tracker; Climate Action Tracker; CAT Net Zero Tracker(all accessed 20 February 2023); UNEP. 2022. Emissions Gap Report 2022.
Key mitigation decisions are embodied in five core scenarios of implementing:
The modeling is performed using the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid global integrated assessment model. This has detailed representation of the energy system and expanded resolution to cover developing Asia.
|2030 to net zero year||International carbon trade||Carbon emissions
|Current policies||No||Current policies||No||3,270 GtCO2 (endogenous)|
|NDC effort||Unconditional||NDCs extrapolation||No||2,650 GtCO2 (endogenous)|
|Uncoordinated net zero||Unconditional||Pledged transition||No||1,420 GtCO2 (endogenous)|
|Global net zero||Unconditional||Fast transition||Yes||1,150 GtCO2|
|Accelerated global net zero||Beyond NDCs||Fast transition||Yes||1,150 GtCO2|
GtCO2 = billion tons of carbon dioxide
Source: Asian Development Bank. 2023. Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero: Asian Development Outlook 2023 Thematic Report
Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero explores what a global net-zero transition could mean for developing Asia. It models emission pathways based on commitments and pledges under the Paris Agreement and compares them with more optimal routes to net zero. The net zero pathways considered will require dramatic transformations in energy and land use, with wide ranging implications.