Study of the COVID-19 Impact on the Economy of Kazakhstan
Institutional Document | February 2021
To assess the development of Kazakhstan's economy, this study presents the results of a macroeconomic forecast taking into account the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in the short- and long-term.
This report was written and prepared under a staff consultancy engagement with the Asian Development Bank to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Kazakhstan’s economy. The objectives of this study are to:
- Review and analyze international experience in combating the economic impact of the pandemic,
- Build a forecasting model,
- Collect data,
- Conduct a regression analysis, and
- Model the impact of COVID-19 on the economy of Kazakhstan.
This report consists of two parts, i) an analysis of Kazakhstan's economy from the supply and demand side, and ii) an analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the economy.
- Executive Summary
- Theoretical base and practical aspects of the forecasting model
- GDP by expenditure approach: Analysis of Kazakhstan’s economy from the demand side
- Impact of COVID-19 on sectors of the economy: Supply-side analysis
- Assumptions about the main explanatory variables for the aggregate demand and supply model
- Modeling results: Impact of COVID-19 on aggregate supply and demand of Kazakhstan in 2020 and forecast for 2021