Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects

Using a growth accounting framework, the authors find that developing Asia grew rapidly over the past 3 decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation. The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region's past economic growth remain relatively limited. Their baseline projections based on the model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will be consistently lower for the next 2 decades than their historical performance. However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. By expanding at robust rates, developing Asia will account for close to two-thirds of the world economy in 2030, almost doubling the current 34% share of the region in 2009.

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Sources of Growth, 1981-2007
  • Determinants of Growth
  • Estimation Results
  • Growth Projections, 2011-2030
  • Comparison and Discussion of GDP Projections
  • Conclusion
  • References

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