Public sector management / Economic affairs management - Public administration

During the 2017 country programming mission of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to the People's Republic of China (PRC), the government requested ADB to provide knowledge and support technical assistance (TA) to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to support the midterm review of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (13th plan ) and the preparation of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan (14th plan). This is a continuation of the support that ADB provided to the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans.

An ADB team met with the NDRC on 31 October 2017 to discuss the objective, key topics to be covered, and timing of the TA. ADB and NDRC initially agreed on (i) the objective of the study, which is to help the PRC achieve higher quality growth in order to address the people's ever-growing needs for a better life; (ii) the key areas to be covered, namely, people-centered urbanization, demographic transition, and ecological civilization; and (iii) the major milestone submission of midterm review in June 2018 and provision of strategic recommendations for the 14th plan in June 2019. ADB agreed to support this process through a flagship study by drawing ADB-wide expertise and resources, and included the proposed TA in the country operations business plan 2018 2020 for the PRC.

The economic performance of the PRC has been impressive over the last four decades. Gross domestic product growth has averaged about 9.6% per year and per capita income has increased by a factor of 8.5. Rapid growth has led to significant improvement in human well-being and quality of life. From 1978 to 2016, the PRC's rural poverty headcount rate declined from 97.5% to 4.5%; life expectancy at birth increased from 67 to 73 years; and child mortality under the age of 5 years declined from 65 to 18 deaths per 1,000.

Historically, the PRC has been very successful in achieving its income-based policy targets, and is expected to become a high-income economy by 2025. However rapid growth has come at a cost, notably a tremendous strain on its environment, rising inequality, and a variety of social challenges associated with rapid rural-urban integration and an aging population. Accordingly, over the past 15 years, the PRC has been progressively shifting from a singular focus on economic growth targets to a broader concept of development, encompassing inclusiveness (_harmonious society_) and sustainability (_ecological civilization_). This trend was reinforced at the 13th FYP and more recently in the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of the People's Republic of China, which emphasized a new strategic goal to foster the _well-being_ (meihaoshenghuo) of the people. This will be a top priority for the government in coming years.

The PRC has a long tradition of formulating five-year plan to address development challenges, and promote social and economic development. The plans lay out the strategic objectives of the country, determine work priorities of the government, and provide guidance for market activities. Since the founding of the PRC, the country has formulated a total of 13 five-year plans; each one has had a significant impact on the PRC's development during the plan period. ADB supported TAs that provided strategic advice to both the 12th and 13th plans. Currently, the implementation of the 13th plan, 2016 2020 is ongoing, and close to midterm. The Government plans to start the midterm review of the 13th plan in June 2018 and then, drawing on the review's findings and conclusions, start the preparation of the 14th plan, which will cover the period 2021 2025. This will be a critical period for the PRC as it aims to move beyond the current goal of a _moderately prosperous_ society and transitions towards a high-income, modern society focused on developing the broader well-being of the population.

The TA will be divided into two phases. The immediate goal of the TA is to conduct a midterm review of the 13th plan in several key areas (see below). The midterm review will assess progress against the objectives of the 13th plan in these areas, the effectiveness of the policy changes and institutional and or legal reforms that have been implemented, and the challenges that remain to achieve the goals of the 13th plan. It will also discuss the challenges to the 13th plan posed by trends in global and domestic socioeconomic context. The areas that have been selected for review are:

(i) People-centered and environmentally sustainable urbanization. The TA will focus on three specific issues in this area (i) low-carbon and climate-resilient urban development; (ii) city-cluster and urban-rural development cooperation and partnerships; and (iii) social inclusion, covering issues such as hukou reform, social protection systems, healthy cities, and gender-related aspects of these challenges.

(ii) Demographic transition. The TA will examine progress in meeting the demographic transition challenge that the PRC faces, focusing in particular on population policy, potential growth, the pension system, and elderly care.

(iii) Ecological civilization. The TA will build on earlier ADB work and focus on environmental protection, water security, and climate change.

The second phase of the TA will build on the findings and conclusions of the midterm review, and carry research in these three areas forward to provide inputs into the preparation of the 14th plan. The research will draw on relevant international experience in formulating its analysis and recommendations. The proposed reforms will be sequenced and linked to a central theme of transitioning to higher quality development in the pursuit of national well-being. To this end, the second phase will seek to develop an overarching central theme for the study that will be discussed and agreed once the governments priorities for the 14th plan are more firmly established. The latter will also be informed by the outcome of a proposed high-level academic conference. An overview report will be prepared that will summarize the findings, conclusions, and policy recommendations under the overarching central theme.

One main report and three sub-reports for each phase prepared

Awareness of balance and sustainable development among stakeholders enhanced.