Macroeconomic Update: Nepal (September 2021)

The Update provides forecasts for fiscal year (FY) 2022 growth, inflation and current account balance while analyzing Nepal's macroeconomic performance in FY2021. Nepal's economy is anticipated to expand by 4.1% in FY2022, up from an estimated growth of 2.3% in FY2021, primarily owing to ongoing vaccination campaign against COVID-19. Annual average inflation edged up to 3.6% in FY2021 and is forecast to rise modestly to 5.2% on the back of higher global oil prices and a gradual recovery in domestic demand. Even with continued strong growth in exports and remittances, the current account deficit will remain high, at an estimated 5.0% of GDP, though down from 8.0% a year earlier.


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