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Asian Development Outlook Supplement, December 2021

Economic Forecasts

ADB is revising its economic growth outlook for developing Asia after renewed outbreaks of COVID-19 led to slower growth in the third quarter.

Key Messages

  • COVID-19 cases in developing Asia have declined and vaccinations have progressed. But rising global cases and the emergence of a highly-mutated variant suggest that the pandemic is far from over.
  • Activity in the region has picked up with the decline in cases. Supply disruptions have been relatively less of an issue in developing Asia, allowing many economies to take advantage of strengthening regional and global demand and helping keep inflation manageable.
  • The region’s growth forecasts are broadly unchanged, revised down very slightly to 7.0% in 2021 and 5.3% in 2022. Inflation is projected at 2.1% in 2021 and 2.7% in 2022.
  • A resurgence in the COVID-19 pandemic—due to a new virus variant—remains the main risk.
ADB Acting Chief Joseph Zveglich, Jr.

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Latest Findings

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Developing Asia Outlook

Developing Asia is expected to sustain its strong rebound as envisaged in September. The growth projection for the region in 2021 is revised down very slightly to 7.0% as forecasts for East, South, and Southeast Asia are downgraded. The regional growth forecast for 2022 is revised down slightly from 5.4% to 5.3% to reflect recovery in East Asia below earlier expectations.

GDP Growth Forecasts, Developing Asia

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Inflation

Regional inflation is expected to remain manageable at 2.1% in 2021 and 2.7% in 2022, allowing for a more accommodative monetary policy and supporting pandemic recovery efforts.

Inflation Rate Forecasts - Developing Asia

Publication and Links

Asian Development Outlook (ADO) Supplement, December 2021

The Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic and development issues in developing countries in Asia. This includes forecasting the inflation and gross domestic product growth rates of countries throughout the region, including the People’s Republic of China and India.